Tuesday, October 6, 2015

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S LATEST BLOG POSTS


Hamburg Is First European City to Authorize the Seizure of Private Vacant Buildings to House Migrants

germany-refugee-shelter
In response to the refugee crisis, the German city of Hamburg has enacted a new law that will enable the government to seize vacant commercial properties to provide temporary housing for refugees. The law will go into effect next and will last until March 2017. Despite the additional measures, many refugees will die of exposure during the cold German winter
Ottoman-Map
The migration of refugees to Europe is part of a long historical trend. The last invasion ended with the Battle of Vienna, which took place in Vienna on September 11, 1683, and concluded on the following day. The battle caused the first financial panic on that list of panics I stumbled upon which led to the discovery of the Economic Confidence Model.
This current migration, which some are calling an invasion, appears to be on time no matter what we call it. Whether it is a real invasion or fleeing from another Islamic civil war the results, to a large extent, are the same. The attempts of the Muslim world to invade Europe go back to the Battle of Tours in October 732 AD (also known as the Battle of Poitiers) led by Charles Martel (688-741 AD), the grandfather of Charlemagne. During the Battle of Tours, Martel stopped an invasion led by the Umayyad Caliphate, the second of four major Islamic caliphates established after the death of Muhammad. This particular caliphate was centered on the Umayyad dynasty rising directly from Mecca.
ECM-Islamic-State Wave 10 ECM-Islamic-State
For those unfamiliar with the history of Islam, there were rivalries between the Arab tribes that caused civil unrest in the provinces outside Syria. The Second Muslim Civil War (680–692 AD) occurred when the leadership of the Umayyad clan shifted from the Sufyanid branch of the family to the Marwanid branch. The failed invasion of Europe in 732 AD during the Battle of Tours led to a decline in confidence of the leadership. The Berber Revolt of 740–743 AD closely followed this period. As a direct result of all this warfare, the resources of government were exhausted. The Umayyads were further weakened by the Third Muslim Civil War (744–747 AD) and were finally defeated by the Abbasid Revolution in (750 BC–132 AD). One branch of the family fled across North Africa to Al-Andalus and established the Caliphate of Córdoba, which lasted until 1031 AD in Spain.
So has Europe imported a civil war? Clearly, the Western powers do not understand history or the fact that the attempt to topple the Syrian government will lead to total chaos. This is by no means in the best interest of national security for Europe or the United States. This is a braindead war game with very serious consequences for it is not over territory; it involves religion with no borders.
Sorry – It’s Just Time.

NATO Warns Russia to End Air Strikes

Russia Mig
The BBC reported that NATO has issued a warning to Russia calling for an end to its air strikes that are targeting U.S. trained forces who have been trying to overthrow the Syrian government. Quite frankly, the U.S. policy to get rid of Assad because he is supported by Russia is absurd and seriously risks international war. Even if they succeed in overthrowing Assad, there is no stable government in place to replace him.
Russian jets did cross over into Turkey and Turkish F-16 fighter jets scrambled in response. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry startlingly commented that Turkey would have been within its rights to shoot the jets down. This is really getting insane.
Many Europeans are very concerned that this warfare in Syria is an excuse for a Muslim invasion of Europe. Now, there is no way to close the borders. Saudi Arabia has even offered to build 200 mosques in Europe. This is leading to a major clash of cultures within Europe and the prospects looking forward are not very promising.
Around 50 police officers were deployed to a refugee center in Hamburg last week to respond to clashes that involved more than 200 Syrian and Afghan refugees. People are fleeing to Europe from different countries while retaining their ethnic differences. Moreover, the Islamic battle in the Middle East is between Sunni and Shiite branches, who to a large extent, do not even consider the other to be a follower of Islam. Many are beginning to fear that the refugees will export their religious war into the heart of Europe.

Punic Wars & the Economic Confidence Model


Punic War
QUESTION:  Mr Armstrong,
How does the ECM stack up against The Punic Wars which left the victor, Rome,the Mediterranean superpower and on the road to Empire?
Many thanks for sharing your historical knowledge.
JR
DecFollis295-348AD
ANSWER: When I back tested the Economic Confidence Model, this frequency appeared over and over again throughout history in all cultures. Even the great reforms of Diocletian (284-305AD) saw a 52-year decline in the coinage in weight before another reform took place.
declsilv-ma-waterfall
The sharp decline in the Roman monetary system during the 3rd century accelerated once Valerian I (253-260AD) was captured by the Persians. It took just 8.6 years to collapse in silver content from 55% to virtually zero. The overall decline from the peak of the Roman Empire under Marcus Aurelius to the bottom was 86 years. From the start of the post-Depression socialistic/Marxist era that began in 1934, interestingly enough that is the bottom of the current wave in the ECM – 2020.
Relief_of_Shapur_I_capturing_Valerian
What caused the total collapse in the Roman Monetary System? Was it inflation or lack of confidence? It was the fact that Valerian was the first Roman Emperor to ever be captured. This sent a shock wave through the empire where people hoarded money, the economy contracted, and that resulted in the government having to debase the money to pay its bills. As always, the CONFIDENCE evaporates FIRST and then the hyper-inflationary outcome results. It has NEVER been the other way around.
Looking back during the Republican era, we see that in 270 BC, the confrontation between Rome and Carthage began and lead to the outbreak of a trade war in 264 BC, known as the First Punic War. Rome succeeded in subjugating Italy in 270 BC when it recaptured Rhegium (southern Italy) from the Mamertines and defeated the Brutians, Lucanians, Calabrians and Samnites. Southern Italy was a trade link for Carthage. The Romans restored the town of Rhegium to its original Greek inhabitants. Carthage actually controlled Sardinia, southern Spain, and Numidia along with Sicily. Carthage inherited their naval strength and experience from their fore-bearers, the Phoenicians, and became a powerful seafaring entity who really clashed with the Greeks for the Mediterranean. Carthage was ruled by an oligarchy of merchants who relied upon mercenaries for its soldiers.
PUNIC
The Sicilian Wars (Greek-Punic Wars) were a series of confrontations between the Carthaginians and the Greek city-states, which at the time were led by Syracuse. They were a contest for control of Sicily and the western Mediterranean between 600 BC and 265 BC. Therefore, the Sicilian Wars were fought on the island of Sicily but did not involve Rome.
Agathokles
Pyrus
After Agathocles of Syracuse sued for peace, Carthage enjoyed a brief and unchallenged period of control over Sicily. However, Carthage’s control of most of Sicily came to an end with the Pyrrhic War. This was the second phase of Pyrrhic War (280–265 BC), which eventually led to the Roman-Punic Wars. Pyrrhus of Epirus arrived in Sicily to rescue the island from Carthaginians but was only partially successful and returned to Italy. Only when Rome became involved in Sicily did the reign of the Carthaginians come to an end in Sicily. Thus, the First Punic War (264–241 BC) began in 264 BC after Pyrrhus retreated from Sicily.
Trade effectively emerged as a major economic means of increasing the national wealth in North Africa. The Punic Wars between Rome and Carthage (known today as the suburb of Tunis, Tunisia) and the ancient center of the Carthaginian Empire are indicative of this lucrative trade based on the acquisition of wealth following the Minoan model. Even after Rome soundly defeated Carthage during the First Punic War (264–241 BC), the city rose again because of trade. The First Punic War (264–241 BC) was a battle to control Sicily and Corsica. To defeat Carthage, the Romans had to create a navy, and finally with a fleet of 200 ships they compelled Carthage to yield.
Hannibal-Stater
AU Stater 225-212BC
During the Second Punic War (218 –201 BC), Carthage gained land in Spain and Hannibal led an ambitious campaign to defeat Rome. The Punic Carthaginian military commander renewed the war by invading Italy by land from the north over the Alps. This invasion caused Rome to issue its first gold coins in an effort to convince the rest of Italy to resist Hannibal. These were stated to conform to the Greek monetary standard.
Scipio Africanus
In the end, Rome prevailed and the famous Roman statesman and General, Scipio the Great (236–183 BC) took the war to Carthage. Scipio defeated Hannibal and demanded an indemnity and the surrender of their entire fleet. Coins were issued in the denomination of the Shekel of Northern Africa with his portrait proudly displayed.
Nevertheless, the Carthaginians quickly recovered since their talent was trade. The sheer ability of trade to rebuild the economy was an example to all nations. This created the envy of Rome’s imitative merchant class who could not yet compete in international trade. This envy is what sparked the Third Punic War. Amazingly, the Third Punic War (149–146 BC) was 51.6 years from the defeat in 201 BC. The Second Punic War (218 –201 BC) was 51.6 years from the conquest of Italy in 270 BC.
The timing of the ECM in waves of 51.6 years has existed from ancient times into the present. This has been a very interesting discovery, rather than a theory.

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