Obfuscating Analysis
COMMENT #1: I have watched the plagiarism going on around your work where people are clearly stealing everything from you and then claiming to have the same track record and then trying to cover it up claiming they use Dewey and Kondratiff yet attempt to come up with a specific date as your model provides. Nothing happened on October 7th compared to September 30th. It must be very disheartening to see such scams around your work when you are trying to help society and they are trying to pick everyone’s pocket. Keep your chin up. There are many of us who are not so blind.
PH
COMMENT #2:
Mr. Armstrong,
Thank you for providing this blog for free. It is a must
read for me. I came across a prediction by another analyst that appears
to be close to identical to what you have said. From the collapse of
Europe to Japan and finally the US and the possible slingshot move in
the Dow. He claims that he uses cycle analysis (Kondratieff and Kitchin
waves, Dewey cycle.) to come to these conclusions. How do these methods
tie in to what you have been predicting? I know other analysts take your
work and call it their own. Your model has already shown an amazing
track record of accuracy.
Regards,
AB
REPLY: Yes. There are hundreds of emails coming in about this issue. It does leave a very bad taste in your mouth and there are times it makes me just want to say screw it and retire to the beach for these people will be so greedy and contribute nothing in the end while discrediting any effort to really help society. You cannot possibly have the same track record using those models. Impossible. To even reach such conclusion requires a database and capital flow analysis. You cannot reach this forecast with cyclical analysis on each thing individually. It is the capital flows that set the tone, not cycles individually on each market. Where did they get the data to even show how such events unfold?
Dow/Gold Ratio
A
number of people have written asking about the proposition that gold
should rise to be equal to the Dow because that is where it had reach in
1980. Sorry – no way. When gold was $875 in 1980 and the Dow 1,000,
that was the end of a Public Wave which peaked 1981.35. The difference
between gold and the Dow is very important. Gold is a hedge against
government for the individual; it is not an institutional investment.
The reason is rather simple – gold pays no dividend.As we can see from the above chart of this ratio back to 1790, The major support on this ratio is 3 to 3.3 and the resistance stands at 20:1. The low in the ratio took place in 2009 during the panic. Therefore, the decline was more associated with the decline in the Dow rather than gold. To reach that 20 level on a decline in the Dow again would mean if gold went all the way to the Yearly Bearish Reversal at 680 and the Dow made new lows, it would have to reach the 13,700 area.
Nevertheless, the proposition that the Dow and gold should be 1:1 and therefore gold will rise to 20,000, is just pipe-dreams. As this chart illustrates, the relationship is like everything else – a cycle. Picking a 1:1 relationship and claiming that is the NORM, is the same absurdity of claiming the silver gold ration should be 16:1 because that is what Congress did during the 19th century when the open market was 30:1 by the Panic of 1893. These types of relationships are by no means realistic just distorted delusion to sell precious metals.
European High Court Upholds Digital Privacy
The European Court of Justice struck down the treaty that allowed
U.S. companies to send data on Europeans to America, reported the Telegraph.
Facebook, Google, and many other U.S. companies can now be barred from
transferring private information to the U.S. if it concerns European
citizens. The high court has struck down a 15-year-old data sharing
treaty and U.S. internet companies can no longer bypass national data
protection authorities. This is a major victory for privacy. America
should consider setting up email accounts in Europe just for starters.
A Former Climate Modeler for the Australian Greenhouse Office Says Mathematics Used by UN Overstates Global Warming by Ten-Fold
Dr. David Evans of
the Australian Greenhouse Office says the mathematical model used by
the United Nations is simply wrong. The underlying physics of the model
is correct, but it has been applied incorrectly. Dr. Evans states that
the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is far lower, and at
best, accounts for only 20% of any claimed warming effect. He states
that the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has
over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times. He makes it
clear that “the political obstacles are massive” to change this
movement.
Indeed, this is all about the power to tax as states will
use this bogus data to tax people now on each mile that they drive. It
is like electric cigarettes. Governments claimed that they were taxing
cigarettes to discourage their use rather than outlawing them. Now that tax revenues have decline,
many states are moving to tax electronic cigarettes. Just follow the
money. Those in government can never keep their hands out of your
pocket.
Copyright Laws to Shut Down Websites
Matt Drudge on an interview on InfoWars with Alex Jones, said that “I had a Supreme Court Justice say to me it’s over”. Drudge said the court had enough votes to shut down websites offering news making it illegal to even link to someone else’s stories. This of course is the fundamental foundation of the free internet. It helps to further knowledge and increases exposure. To shut this down as some violation of copyright law is unbelievable. Plagiarism is a huge problem. But people linking to other’s stories is part of free speech. To shut this down is intended to shut down any alternative news.
Merkel & the Fate of Germany
COMMENT: Dear Marty,
You are spot on: something big is happening in Germany at this very moment – just look at today’s headlines from Spiegel.de:
- Widerstand in der CDU gegen Merkels Einwanderungsgesetz
- Bundesregierung und EU-Kommission erwägen “Flüchtlings-Soli”
- Seehofer droht Merkel mit Verfassungsklage wegen Einwanderungspolitik
I have never ever seen Germany in such a chaotic condition – the political backbone (Mittelstand) – usually strong supporters of the CDU – is also openly criticising Merkel for her idiotic policies…..
Just imagine what happens if there is a so called terrorist attack (false flag or real) in one of the large German cities. It will achieve the opposite of what they are trying to engineer with their “everyone is welcome” policy.
This is a real powder keg of epic proportions, beware if something should happen, it will unleash an avalanche of ugly retaliatory knee jerk reactions……she can then put her noble price up her arse…and Europe will also start to question Germany’s status of primus interpares. Yes, I can see now what you mean with the real crisis in government and the sovereign debt crisis you are expecting to unfold soon – it is in the making !
But boy….as long as the Euro is climbing vs the USD, everything is fine, nothing to see here…..
Nice weekend !
Best, O
REPLY: Yes, it appears our politicians on a global scale have degenerated to the worse state of incompetence. This appears to be the election temperament in the USA. With the financial capitol of the world moving to Asia (India/China), this appears to be the final nail in the coffin of Europe. The whole idea of Brussels is failing and this is why lawyers as politicians are dangerous. They do not have a clue as to how the economy or society functions. They try to write laws to command an outcome and never listen. Then on top of that, they will never admit a mistake. Once a policy is adopted, they will not change and this is the problem in motion for Europe.
There is just no way out because they will never admit this idea of one government is a total failure. My sources relay that the immigration issue was adopted by Merkel because her policy on Greece made her appear nasty inside Europe. So she accepted the migrants to change her image in the aftermath of Greece. Then Obama praised her and the next day she said there was no limit. Then she was up for the Nobel Peace Prize, but has now lost.
This posturing will prove to be a huge disaster.
Germany Elites Arguing to Increase Retirement to Pay for Refugees
The elites in Germany are calling for reforms due to the refugees. Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the IFO Institute for Economic Research said, “We’d better put up the retirement age to feed the refugees. The elderly are needed, moreover, to [teach] learn the refugees.” Sinn is proposing radical social reforms, stating, “We should take advantage of the influx of refugees as an opportunity for a new agenda of 2010.”
Indeed, the proposals are to escape the social costs that Germany cannot really honor. They are using the refugees as an excuse to impose a default on social programs.
Immigration During an Economic Decline Is Insane!
According to the BBC,
the German government has admitted that there have been almost 500
attacks on homes intended for asylum seekers this year. Politicians are
clueless when it comes to managing an economy. In the USA during the
1840s, in the middle of the State Sovereign Debt Crisis, gun battles
took place in many areas against the Irish who were blamed for the
rising unemployment and taking jobs from citizens since that was the
major wave of Irish immigration during the mid-19th century.
While politicians are lining their pockets and playing for Nobel Prizes, the reality of their actions are very
different. This is what happens when lawyers rule government. They know
how to write laws and then expect people to obey even when their laws
go against common sense and economics.
You
cannot legislate morality. Violence will rise in Europe as the economy
turns down. This is going to be a very rough two years ahead.
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