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Market Talk October 13, 2015

Posted on October 13, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The Import numbers released from China early this morning, was the last thing the commodity based countries wanted to see; especially having found some decent optimism in recent trading. The Nikkei suffered most losing 1.1% on the day and that carried forward into late US trading where the Futures are currently down a further 0.95%. All European bourses were hit producing daily losses of between 0.5% – 1% with the DAX the obvious worst performer.
The DOW opened lower but quickly recouped much of that ground for the majority of the session. Towards the close all Indices tended to drift lower eventually closing around 0.75% down on the day.
The most talked performing asset was the US Dollar – again, against commodity countries. The worst on the day was the Brazilian Real losing 3.5%, the Russian Rouble -2.15% and Australian Dollar -1.5%. The DXY (US Dollar Index) closed higher at 94.78. Gold also finished higher on the day at $1167 but only after it recovered from an early attack that saw it bounce off of the $1151 level.
The Fixed-Income Market was unsure which direction to move in as equities wobbled yet DXY and Gold rallied. We did see the TY/RX spread tighten (closing +146bp) as Treasuries were bid. The curve flattened 2/10 (into 142bp) as we saw the belly of the curve outperform the wings. 5’s and 10’s were both better by 6bp whilst 2’s were -2bp and 30’s -4bp.

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China Still Heading Lower

Posted on October 13, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

The latest economic news from China shows that, in dollar terms, imports collapsed 20.4% in September from a year earlier to $145.2bn. This is one of the sharpest declines ever, and it is far beyond what was expected. This has had a further impact upon the raw commodity sector and metals. This latest drop in Chinese imports was down 20.4%, year-on-year, compared with a 13.8% decrease in August. Meanwhile, China’s exports were also down 3.7% during September after a 5.5% decline during August.

The other side of 2015.75 still looks like a sharp cliff going into next year. From an economic viewpoint, the economy turned down Wed., Sept. 30, 2015, on a global scale coinciding also with our Cycle of War on the international model. We should see the economy turn downward into a steeper recession moving into Wed., Sept. 28, 2016, which is the next turning point on the Economic Confidence Model followed thereafter by Tues., Oct. 24, 2017. Caution is advisable for it appears we should see an overall recessionary trend emerge on a global scale this time.