Republican Civil War: Country Club Republicans Threaten the Survival of the USA
Our
computer has been projecting an emerging civil war within the
Republican Party. A lot of e-mails have come in on this subject. Rep.
Kevin McCarthy’s startling decision to pull out of the race for Speaker
of the House of Representatives illustrates, quite openly, how the
Republican Party is bitterly divided between hardcore conservatives and
the country club establishment. This is also reflected in the rise of
Donald Trump. Trump has been leading the polls in Florida, beating
Bush in his home ground, no less Rubio and Hillary. Trump is the
anti-politician and this highlights the rising tension in politics.
The
Republican civil war escalated with the rise of the Tea Party six years
ago. Our models have been pointing to 2016 as the year from political
hell, and few people thought our computer would ever be right. Some in
political circles commented that our computer had been correct with all
prior elections. But this was luck since it was based upon trends
without polling individuals. What they do not grasp is that people
respond to the trend; if you get that correct, you can forecast which
way they will vote.
Our political forecast coordinated with the Economic Confidence Model. What
we are seeing is part of the times, driven by high taxes, declining
economic growth, rising unemployment for the youth, and politicians who
have become corrupt and disconnected from society. The non-establishment
country club Republicans are rising to the top and the political
establishment, along with the press, are fighting against this trend
without accepting responsibility for their own actions. I would
certainly never vote for any established politician for nothing will
change regardless of who wins be it Hillary or Bush.
The
Republican civil war has intensified over the summer and fall as
Washington outsiders are leading most Republican polls and beating the
establishment on every front no matter how hard the “free press” tries
to change the trend. The press refuses to publish their own polls that
state people no longer trust mainstream journalists. This political
season has exposed them as trying to influence the elections rather than
reporting on the trend.
Republicans
may control both chambers, but they struggle to get anything done
because of the divide between country club Republicans, led by John
Boehner (R-Ohio), who openly tried to fund upsets to purge everyone in
the Tea Party. Boehner removed anyone who supported Ron Paul and would
not allow Ron Paul’s name to even be placed into nomination at the last
presidential convention. Boehner has done far more to divide the
Republic Party and its destruction rests squarely on his shoulders.
McCarthy,
the House majority leader, was certainly the clear favorite to succeed
Speaker Boehner in a normal world. However, the California congressman
was hardly a consensus choice since he was part of the country club
establishment whom would only further divide the party. McCarthy is the
majority leader but he will NEVER gain
the support of the Tea Party members for he went along with Boehner in
backstabbing them at every opportunity. The country club Republicans are
coming to an end. This is going to be a very interesting 2016. For now,
the fear rests on the prospect that the government will shut down as
kicking the can down the road is under fire.
Yes,
it would be nice to restructure everything right now. It would be easy
to save the nation in 30 days or less if we approach this from a
practical perspective as if we were saving a bankrupt corporation. The
first country to accept a restructuring will be like Britain in 1931
when it abandoned austerity (gold standard) and was the first to rise
from the Great Depression. The Democrats are just thieves in the night
who are hell bent on robbing anyone who has money to line their own
pockets.
The answer is right there before our eyes. The problem that prevents saving the nation is that there are too many politicians.
Is Quantitative Easing the Same as Printing Money?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong;
Thank you for coming to Athens. After the presentation, there were so many questions that the moderator did not have time for. You answered some for the crowd afterwards that I had never heard anyone ever explain. You said Quantitative Easing was not money printing nor did it really increase the money supply. You also said to the crowd that fiat is not paper money, but anything declared by government including pegs.
Could you elaborate on those statements.
Thank you for your enlightenment.
GP
ANSWER: Quantitative easing is not responsible for increasing the money supply or printing money. It is a swap of bonds for cash so they are not outright printing money. It is a swap transaction. This combined with the idea that paper money is fiat and precious metals are tangible are all seriously wrong. Fiat is the attempt by government to decree the value of money. This is no different from a peg that broke, such as the Swiss/euro peg, or the Bretton Woods attempt to fix gold in terms of dollars. ANY attempt to flat line the value of money by decree is fiat, regardless of whether the instrument is paper or seashells.
This idea that Quantitative Easing is printing money is very pre-1971 thinking and is a throwback to Bretton Woods. Such an assumption focuses on the differentiation between debt and money or cash. Pre-1971, you could not borrow against government debt so there was a clear difference between debt and money. The theory that it was less inflationary to borrow than print made sense only when there was a real difference between debt and cash or money.
Today, debt and cash are the same. If you trade futures, you deposit cash and to earn some interest you buy TBills, which are deposited and used as collateral. The distinction between debt and cash has vanished. This means that Quantitative Easing does NOT actually stimulate the economy. The giant assumption was that the cash would be spent within the system. But the banks complained and the Fed created the EXCESS RESERVE window which has about $2.5 trillion on which the Fed pays 0.25% interest. They only swapped bonds for the right to deposit cash at 0.25%, so where was the stimulus? Nothing was stimulated and there was no inflation since there was no actual increase in private spending.
These theories are very primitive to say the least. Nobody looks at them closely or follows the money to see if they are doing anything what the theory pretends should happen. The ECB bought 25% of the bonds and inflation still turned negative. They have stated that they will increase that to 33%. They never review their actions when something fails to work. All government ever does is move further in the same direction because government employees will NEVER admit a mistake.
This is akin to physicians in medieval times who assumed that bleeding a person would heal them because an illness was seen as if it were a poison in the bloodstream. If the patient died, they never assumed the death to be the result of taking too much blood. Instead, they would state that they did not bleed the patient soon enough and that caused their death.
Welcome to the plague of thinking among humankind. Why learn new ways as long as you can just accelerate the current failed process? It’s safer because you do not have to admit mistakes that way. This is why we must crash and burn. They will never look at their actions and are incapable of admitting an era. Anyone who challenges the status quo becomes the “fringe” element that should be ignored.
Deutsche Bank to Post 6.2 Billion Euro Loss for 3rd Quarter
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Merkel: Immigrants & the Nobel Peace Prize
Merkel is up for the Nobel Peace Prize. Her actions regarding immigration have some wondering if she is trying to get that prize or if she is doing what is best for Germany. The Arab countries are not taking in any refugees; they are happy to send them off to Europe. So if their own are not helping them, then what is really going on? There are a lot more questions than answers.
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