Can The Dow Correct for up to 5 Months?
A weekly closing in the Dow Jones Industrials below 17722 will confirm that the January correction where we have had that Panic Cycle due in the middle of the month is in play. This will open the door to a retest of the 16300 area. Keep in mind that we did NOT achieve the year-end closing ABOVE 18500. That left the Dow in a position that warned the Phase Transition just might be postponed until BIG BANG – (2015.75-2017)
There is now a potential for up to a 5 month correct into May. This may be the real driving force behind sending heaps of capital flooding into the bond markets on the flight to quality scenario. If this unfolds, we should have a really wild bubble for recessions are created by a stock crash. However, moving into a bond crash wiped out the capital formation. This is why the 2007-2009 crash was so devastating. Bonds are where MOST capital resides – not equities. The swing into equities REQUIRES a swing out of bonds. That is what BIG BANG will be all about.
So for now – CAUTION is advised in stocks. Pay attention right now for we may be in a phase transition in bonds.
The Bond Bubble – Confirmed
The BUBBLE for 2015,75 should be the bond market – not stocks. The capital flows should move into the typical flight to quality mode and drive rates even lower. This will set the stage for BIG BANG. To accomplish that, we should see the stock markets tread water, but not necessarily drive off the cliff.
We can see the 30 year bonds from a yearly perspective we recreated back to the late 1700s not only elected THREE YEARLY BULLISH REVERSALS for the close of 2014, but the oscillator also turned up. This is reflecting the sectorial capital flow shift. Of course, the dollar haters are out in force claiming our capital flow models are wrong because the stock markets are dropping. This is typical myopic perspective that will prevent them from ever really profiting from what lies ahead. They refuse to comprehend (1) you have capital flows among nations that drives the currencies for example, and (2) you then have sector driven capital flows.
It is the sector flows that we see as bubbles. To create a bubble in anything, we need capital CONCENTRATION. This is where confidence comes into play. People display their herd-instinct by running into a sector because that is what everyone else is doing. People are convinced by price movement.
Each 8.6 year peak and bottom in the ECM produces a bubble in something. The 1989.95 was the end of Communism and the peak in the Japanese Bubble. The 1985 was the peak in deflation (dollar high) and 1987 was the peak in dollar assets shifting the capital flows out of USA to Japan. Capital moved from Japan into South East Asia. Then 1994.25 was the peak in SE Asia with the low in US stock market as capital flows shift back to USA and Europe.
The 1998 target was the peak in the Russian boom and the collapse of Long-term Capital Management and the initial peak in inflows to Europe for the birth of the Euro. Then the capital flows shift into the USA for the internet bubble in 2000. That is when the Euro hit is low in 2000 as capital concentrated in USA. The 2000 Tech Bubble was followed by the low in 2002 in US shares and then came the securitzation bubble in real estate for 2007.15. The euro produced the highest closing for 2007 and intraday high in 2008. The Euroland crisis was beginning as smart money began to shift again out of Europe. The 2011 bottom was the peak in oil and gold and the start of the breakout in stocks and the beginning of the Euro Crisis in full bloom.
These are the next three main waves until we reach the end of this 51.6 year wave with the culmination in 2032. Thereafter, China will surpass the USA and Asia will rise to the financial capital of the world. That is set in motion by the corruption in New York in place now that will deter capital in the long-run from the USA because we have no rule of law.
This 2015.75 turn should be the start of BIG BANG and this should be market with the low in interest rates that ferments the peak in the bond bubble. Each 8.6 year wave produces a bubble, yet in a different sector. It is never the same thing twice.
So for those desperate to try to prove me wrong, enjoy yourself. Count you money while you still have something to play with for unless you grasp how the world functions, chances are you will ge sucked into one bubble or another, This is not about being personally right or wrong. This is trying to figure out what make the world tick,
Cybersecurity – Is Anything Safe?
The NSA has been able to break encryption even to internal VPN networks. There is nothing safe any more. The irony is that “terrorism” is the excuse to break-in to anything, but real terrorists use pigeon-post. They do not use Facebook and they stay as far away from Google and Microsoft as possible. The NSA’s intrusion into even VPN networks is to hunt money – not terrorists.
This is all about hunting money. If you now withdraw $3,000 (not $10,000) your bank secretly reports you to the IRS. If the hyperinflationists were correct at all, the amount of money to track should rise – not decline. This whole thing is like the fraud in car insurance. You buy a new car and pay a premium based upon the car’s value, yet if the car has to be replaced. they pay a depreciated value. The insurance premium does not decline in proportion to what they will pay. It is outright theft. You continue to pay for insurance at the value you buy a car but the payout can NEVER be what you have paid insurance for. Just FRAUD! This is the same game operated by government. They are hunting smaller and smaller amounts of money. This is DEFLATION not INFLATION. It is illegal to send even a $50 bill in the mail to a relative for a birthday. Legally, the Post Office can keep it.
Cybersecurity really does not exist. Whatever can be digitized can be hacked with resources and time. The digital world has created greater insecurities. The NSA is at war with everyone. It is a paranoid agency that thinks everyone is out to get them so they have to monitor everyone and everything. They really do “happy dances”beating the security systems set up in the private sector.
The security system that I had designed depended upon a physical link that could not be hacked or circumvented. Every computer within the system pinged each other. Remove one, and the system self-destructed. This was a key reason I was thrown in contempt.
Tancred Schiavoni, Alan Cohen’s “counsel”, put in writing that the company would be shut down if I did not turn over the source code to the model. The NY Press kept up the pretense and just regurgitate whatever nonsense the government pretends in court as if it were real. I was held in contempt publicly to turn over assets for alleged victim Republic National Bank/HSBC agreed to make whole in return for no jail time. I was held in contempt for something that I could not have possibly owed and was released ONLY because I finally was getting into the Supreme Court. The documentation demonstrates clearly this was about access to the code. The receiver by LAW is suppose to maximize profits, not shut down a company and reject money people were willing to put up to keep the company going. It was one giant fraud on the public and NOT a single judge in New York SDNY would dare uphold the constitution or human rights for that matter. They proved the government wins to maintain its virtual 99% conviction rate no matter what.
Lacking any viable rule of law left standing in the United States Federal Court System given its total corruption, we do not stand a chance against the NSA as a society. You do as they say or they will bleed every drop of blood from your system and do a happy dance for their victory.
Cybersecurity is really non-existent for the NSA is at war against the American people and the rest of the world. In digitizing everything and shrinking the info enabled Edward Snowden himself to walk out with 1.7 million documents. If this was physical paper, no way would that have been possible. Snowden was not unique for over history others have acted in the same manner. Snowden was empowered by the concentration of data in digital form we created.
The only solution to security requires taking just one small step back in time. There has to be introduced some analog with human aspects into the security loop. We have to merge any system with something that is analog, physical, or human in a way that if the system is subverted digitally it has a second barrier to overcome that cannot be accomplished externally. This is why we are looking at providing a tablet for the greatest possible security which cannot be breached externally requiring some physical action.
The old fashion need to flick a physical switch in a decision loop for critical systems prevents hacking. Analog devices can operate as a check on computer systems. It is Plan B – the non-cyber alternative to run a system to protect your data in a network that cannot be compromised from the outside. The objective is to force an attacker to deal with a system outside of computer code.