Greek Elections – Conservatives Out.
The Greek elections have come in as the polls projected. The alliance of leftist parties SYRIZA won the Greek parliamentary election on Sunday by a large margin. The party of Alexis Tsipras will therefore reach 36.5 percent of the vote. Accordingly, SYRIZA can expect 149 to 151 seats in the new parliament. For an absolute majority of 151 of the 300 seats in the Greek parliament are required. The previous ruling conservatives under Antonis Samaras will be according to projections 27.7% holding just 76 seats.
This is not yet complete. The EU will be on its belly now crawling for Greece to stay in the union falling from their hands and knees. Nevertheless, this should do more to fuel speculation about the Euro over the next few months. The EU could not stop political elections. They can stop votes on leaving the Euro directly with behind-the-scene machinations.
Everything has A history
This is a Roman Republican silver denarius of L. Titurius Sabinus circa 89BC depicting the rape of the Sabine girls. The Romans opened their doors to their neighbors for a festival. The Sabines came and the Romans kept their unmarried girls. This became known as the Rape of the Sabines. Of course it was not actually a violent rape fest, they took the girls for wives since there was a shortage of women. This episode in the legendary history of Rome, is traditionally dated to 750 BC. Effectively, the first generation of Roman men acquired wives for themselves from the neighboring Sabine families by abduction.
The English word “rape” is a conventional translation of the Latin “raptio”, which in this context means “abduction” rather than its prevalent modern meaning in English language of sexual violation. In Italian, “rapido” is used to today meaning to hurry-up, quick, rapid, fast, swift, speedy, express. The Italian word “veloce” means fast, quick, raid, speedy, swift, nimble. It is easy to see how “rape” has evolved in English to mean sex by force.
However, a curious tradition has emerged. Here is a painting depicting what took place latter. The Sabines moved for revenge and it was the intervention of the Sabine girls that prevented the battle. This painting depicts Romulus’s wife Hersilia — the daughter of Titus Tatius, leader of the Sabines — rushing between her husband and her father and placing her babies between them. A vigorous Romulus prepares to strike a half-retreating Tatius with his spear, but hesitates. Other soldiers are already sheathing their swords.
So what tradition comes from this event? This is why a groom must carry his bride across the threshold as the Romans did with the Sabine girls. Interesting tradition.
The Discovery of the Waterfall Event
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your waterfall analysis is really fascinating. I looked from many charts and see what you are referring to. This is a rare formation. Because it is so rare, may I ask where you first encountered this type of pattern that clearly marks a significant break with the past trend?
All the best
PK
ANSWER: I wanted to see how empires died. The only way to accomplish that was to reconstruct the Roman Monetary System. The Romans were great secretaries.Here is a gold coin of Claudius (41-54AD). The Roman Republic was born by overthrowing the Etruscan king. Therefore, monarchy was prohibited by custom thereafter just as there may be no royal titles bestowed upon an American politician. They usurp the title “honorable” without earning a single letter. The Roman Revolution was not much different from the American.
Like Obama claiming he will tax the rich to help the Middle Class when in fact he is raising taxes on the Middle Class directly, Roman politicians were no different. The “emperor” was not a king in title. He was the “tribune” and “consul” of the people against the corrupt senate. To maintain that image, the coins are actually dated to his reign. The legend on the obverse reads:
“TI CLAVD CAESAR AVG GERM PM TRP”
translation:
Tiberius Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus Pontif Max Tribunitian Power
Tribunician power (the power to veto legislation) was essential to any ruler and signified that he kept the politicians in check. Even today the British monarch has the theoretical power to veto Parliament as does the President of the United States. The British monarch hasn’t exercised that power for a very long time, yet it remains there. Every Roman emperor claimed Tribunician power from the moment of accession and it symbolized that he was the Tribune protecting the people after the massive corruption of the Senate dominated by the oligarchy against which Caesar defended the liberty of the people. Caesar was the leader of the People’s Party against the oligarchy led by Cato (Cato Institute should really remain itself. They choose the wrong side from propaganda).
Up until Nerva the tribunician power was renewed on the anniversary of its original conferment, i.e. usually on the dies imperii. Each year during their reign, the legend would change to reflect its renewal. Here, TR P is referring to the first year Claudius was Tribune. Tribunes were appointed for one year terms during the Republic and thus the emperor kept up the pretense that he served for one year terms, albeit for life.
From Antoninus Pius onward the tribunician power seems to have been renewed on December 10th each year, the day on which elected tribunes entered office during the Republic days. At some point during the third century AD the tribunician day was moved from December 10th to January 1st.
This practice of pretending he was reappointed each year made the Roman coinage cognizable on a annual basis. Where the first coin illustrated has “TR P”, here the legend is “TR P IIII”. The first coin was struck in 41AD when he first came to power and this second coin was struck in 44AD.
Armed with the ability to specifically reconstruct the monetary system of Rome on an annual basis, it was a matter of building a collection so it could be weighted and tested to produce this illustration of the collapse of the silver denarius. This project answered the “curiosity” I had – how fast did the Roman economy collapse? This research project was hugely expensive. In today’s dollars, this chart cost over $100 million to produce. Without that, the forecast for the collapse of the Euro would NOT HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE. Sure someone can arrive at that conclusion by opinion. But they will never get the timing.
If you want to know what the future might be, we can only look at the past. That takes a massive database and this is why the Banks always lose money. They are far too cheap to have a research department for they see that as a cost to keep at a minimum rather than a resource. Therein lies the entire problem. Even Congress with each crisis comes up with the same ideas over and over again. Not a single person EVER asks – Has anyone tried this before? Did it work?Every crisis is handled as if there is no history to even consider. The banks yell if they are not bailed out, there will be a great depression. Congress trembles in fear, and writes checks when the threat is not even real.
Gold Closed Between the Weekly Reversals
Gold closed between the Weekly Bullish and Bearish Reversals at 1298 and 1287. The week of the 19th was the target for a turning point. It is curious that this turned out to be the week for the Greek elections as well and then the King of Saudi Arabia dies with his successor telling it as it is – there is no conspiracy against Russia for that would imply the USA should be compensating the Saudis to pull that off. The USA is moving to a next exporter and the supply is coming out from everywhere. The Saudi’s have said they will continue to produce to retain market share and gave our target for support at the $30-$35 area.
Despite the kicking and screaming from the hyperinflationists, the world is starting to notice they are not in touch with reality. They keep touting old theories of money supply and inflation in their one-dimensional world. In the real world, there is a lot more complexity than they are capable of even observing.
The numbers are the numbers. I do not believe in forecasting what you would personally like to see happen. That is just delusional. The real world holds far more ticks in it bag than humans have figured out and to just keep track, that is a task for super-computers. The Global Market Watch has exceeded 60,000 patterns recorded to its database. That represents far more possible outcomes than any individual is capable of even guessing.
The future is in the eye of the computer – not the forecaster. The number and timing are our guide. Opinion never counts. People move in anticipation anyhow. Buy the rumor – sell the news. The reversals are interestingly close together.