The Crude Waterfall
Here was our Waterfall Model that would have shorted Crude if it had an account. We warned a closing below $75 and $57 would be devastating and ultimate result in a decline to $30-$35 area.
Here the break of the Uptrend Line and the turning NEGATIVE on the Energy Model was the kiss of death confirming the Waterfall Effect.
The Euro & The Waterfall Projection – Judgment Day
We have not seen a Waterfall Projection on any market in years. All of a sudden, it showed up in Euro and in Oil. Those who have been with us for decades will notice that the projection for the high was virtually a perfect formation at the top of the circle based upon the Pi derivative. That meant we should have then stayed within the circle forming that sharp curve (Waterfall) that will then rush to the bottom of the projection. Note we fell and supported perfectly on it, bounced for one week and then fell out of bed pushing through the bottom of the Pi Cycle projection. You cannot get any more bearish than that for the future long-term.
The confirmation that the forecast would be spot on came the week of June 9th, 2014 when the Euro turn NEGATIVE on a Energy models. The inability to mount a recovery warned that the Euro was in a real FREE-FALL to complete the Waterfall. Then there was the technical break of the Uptrend Line (green previous chart). You just could not provide a clearer signal that collapse was eminent.
The fascinating aspect about Socrates is how it picks wars and political elections that are reflected in the price movement without any fundamental analysis. Tomorrow, we have Judgment Day – the Greek elections on Europe.
If the polls are accurate, Greece is on the verge of electing the first anti-austerity party in the Euroland. If that happens, Greece’s future will once again be uncertain and we can bet on increased volatility in the months ahead. Our model is warning that there are critical points here. A simple yearly closing below 116 is confirmation of a bear market. Then our targets were 113, 105, and 85. The collapse to 1.1115 with the closing at 1.1209 was longer-term bearish. However, this does not imply a further immediate collapse. A closing below 105 was needed for that.
But the election will be judgment day on how Europe will survive long-term. This financial and economic crisis is the result of academics and lawyers assuming that power can merely dictate to the free markets. Sorry, the Russian had to figure that one out for itself. Centralized government economic planning just does not work. Their own self-interest prevents economic management from working.
The Greece has been bailed out with €240bn (£188bn) from the EU, the ECB and the IMF. But the economy has shrunk by 25%, unprecedented in the modern era. Why? Because these morons just have NEVER understood currency and capital flows. Converting the pre-Euro Greek Debt to euros that doubled, caused their national debt to double in “real” terms and then they suddenly have seen their economy strip-mined. If the Greeks do not pull out of the Euro, we will see civil war erupt there by 2017.
Many Greeks believe they have been assigned to a laboratory for austerity. The despise the Germans and rightly so. The Germans remain fighting their last nightmare – hyperinflation. They do not understand what took place and simply assign its cause to an increase in money supply when it was a revolution in 1918 where Communism was infiltrating from Russia. Capital fled NOT because of money supply increases, but because of the treat of capital seizures. This is like assuming everyone who ever eat a carrot died eventually so the cause must have been the carrot. It was a 100% correlation.
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, when in opposition, was mistrusted by Brussels and Berlin. He doubted whether cutting spending in the middle of a recession would work and resisted signing up to it. In power, he has essentially followed the script of the so-called troika; the EU, the IMF and the ECB. This has proven to beBRAIN-DEAD and Europe is facing Judgment Day on a grand scale. This is perhaps the greatest fiasco in modern history of the worst possible fiscal mismanagement in record history. Thus, the Euro is at risk of extinction long-term and it will promote separatism and civil war. This is not personal OPINION, this is the correlation of history.
Obama’s Slick Lie to Raise Taxes on Middle Class
What everyone heard at Obama’s State of the Union was how he wanted to tax therich and prevent them from leaving their children the spoils of their life. They also were duped into believing that he wants to help the Middle Class and make collegeFREE. What they did not hear is his desire to wipe out the Middle Class with a tremendous tax burden.
The Middle Class family has been able to save money for their children up to $300,000 under the tax-exempt 529 savings program for education. They are allowed to save $14,000 a year where the profits are tax-free. About 47% of families that had the 529 plan earned more than $150,000 per year inHOUSEHOLD income. Obviously, we are not talking about the “rich” here. So how does Obama get to raise taxes on the Middle Class? First you keep lowering the definition since everyone assumes the “rich” must be someone earning more than they do. Obama also tells them he is raising taxes on the “rich” creating a clever and slick diversion or distraction with a promise it is for the benefit of the Middle Class to give them FREE college for two years.
The tax-code that benefits the “rich” you hear about so much is capital gains –not income but investment income. This is what creates jobs that Obama wants to tax so desperately at the normal rates. The tax legislation passed at the start of 2013 permanently extended the George W. Bush-era tax cuts for most people but also added a top marginal tax rate of 39.6% for those at higher incomes — $400,000 for single filers, $450,000 for married couples filing jointly and $425,000 for heads of household.
Obama’s slick distraction is going after capital gains saying (1) he is raising taxes on the “rich” for the benefit of the Middle Class and (2) he will close the loopholes for the “rich” that allows them to leave wealth to their children. First, anyone who invests money is what he calls the “rich” compared to his definition of “real”Americans who depend 100% on government to rob from everyone else to hand those spoils to them.
What Obama has pulled off is very clever. Promising “FREE” college for everyone is only for 2 years and this is to replace the 529 program so he can now grab what people have saved for their children’s education. Saving for a 4 year educate plus medical or law school will no longer be tax free. Obviously, a 4 year education is for the “rich” to be paid for AFTER taxes.
The “FREE” education is a local community college – not a university of your choice. Already, about 40% of community college students’ tuition is covered by federal and state aid. So he is cleverly taxing savings while attributing this to a benefit to be funded by the “rich” now. It is the other expenses (food, transportation, books, etc.) that are often the insurmountable hurdles that the savings in a 529 helped to pay for not to mention room and board. Additionally, in 2003, only 25% of students attending community college graduated. They have a rather poor track-record for education. Obama is NOT offering FREE college, he is only offering 2 years free so he can grab what people have saved all their years. This is very slick.
Obama will then create a real change in education. Anyone looking to get accepted to a university outside of where he lives will now have to earn every penny AFTERtaxes and 4 years+ is now all funded AFTER tax.. This is a slick way to wipe out savings for Middle Class families with HOUSEHOLD income well below $250,000, which will be the vast majority. This is not a tax break, this is a substantial TAX INCREASE on the Middle Class. The definition of the “rich” keeps coming down. It was $5 million and now with his repeal of 529, it is down to HOUSEHOLDincome of $150,000. Soon he will include in that HOUSEHOLD income approach everyone living in your house – not just the parents.
German court Rules that Men can Urinate while Standing
Well Chalk one-up for men who finally won something. The German court ruled thatmen actually have a right to stand while urinating. Just amazing. Perhaps once in a while judges can make a rational decision – of course it wasn’t in New York City.
Believe it or not, there are places in Europe that outlaw men standing to urinate after 10 PM because it may disturb the neighbors in an apartment complex.