Gold – Dollar – Euro
We are in a very fluid period, which can be confusing, yet it is important to comprehend that NOTHING but NOTHING is ever PERMANENT. One the one hand, gold will eventually decline for its final low on the benchmarks. The only thing that will call that into question is a Monthly Closing ABOVE 1350. Yet, gold is risingWITH the dollar.
This paradox centers around a simple game – who has the confidence now. Since the confidence is fleeing Euroland, then capital and confidence will move into dollar and Swiss franc. This means that gold will rise WITH the dollar and franc as aHEDGE against the Euro.
However, we will eventually reach that point more-likely-than-not on the benchmarks where the shift in confidence will take place and gold will then rise AGAINST the dollar. After the confidence has crashed against the everyone else, then it will turn against the USA. This is when we will thereafter see the next solution as a one-world reserve currency.
This is a CONFIDENCE game. This is why I named the ECM the Economic Confidence Model. Relationship fluctuate back and forth. Even looking at the Silver/Gold Ratio illustrates my point. There is nothing PERMANENT – we are always in a state of constant flux. The vast majority of “analysts” are always wrong because they are trying to apply a standard unchanging theory (linear) to a dynamic world (non-linear). They will be correct only like a broken clock twice a day for a brief second.
This is the entire purpose of Socrates – to monitor an extremely complex dynamic world that is not Artificial Intelligence, but something that is BEYOND human capability. Converting this system to be accessible via the Web has been a huge challenge. This is my personal goal and the purpose to go public is to protect it from falling into the hands of just one entity. When we launch, hopefully people will see this is not just decades ahead of anything out there, it is demonstrating the world is dynamic and we do really all need each other.
I believe this is the only way society hopefully can advance taking that one small step for man one giant leap for mankind, to quote another Armstrong. I have stated countless times this is not my theory, it has been my discovery. Socrates has revealed the world to me – it will soon be time to reveal it to the world.
So to those who are in awe that the forecasts on this blog have been so correct on so many markets consistently, please keep in mind – I am not super-human. This is the accomplishment not of my opinion, but my dream. There is a new way if we can get past the human bias and prejudice.
Centralized v Localized Government
The problem with the Euro has been the secret design to federalize Europe. It is one thing to create a central government for the major issues of international cooperation and defense and another when you try to create centralized control over everything. The demise of the USA is also in the cards because of the centralized government that has usurped state powers. Once a government moves down that path, it will inevitable become corrupted and it will attempt to stuff the entire economy into a one-size-fits-all mold. The collapse unfolds as centralized government consumes more and more power unto itself.
Localized government allows for the difference in culture. This permits people to actually pursue their goal of happiness whatever that might be. Looking at Europe, Italian do things differently than Germans as is the case between each member society. Brussels is trying to force a one-size-fits-all policy upon all of Europe and in that respect, it must fail.
Even the Federal Reserve was originally set up with 12 branches and each branch was independent. It was owned by banks because the banks were the benefactors for it was to do what J.P. Morgan did in bailing out the banks during the Panic of 1907. It was World War I that was the excuse for Congress to first command that the Fed buy US debt to support the war. That was not reversed thereafter. Then came Roosevelt and the Great Depression. He usurped the 12 branches and created a single interest rate never returning the Fed to its independent regional focus. Then World War II came and the Fed was ordered to support the government debt at par. That stopped only in 1951. With each crisis, government alters the Fed. The 2007 Crash made it too big to fail and it could not take over McDonalds.
Politicians alter the Fed with each event but never return it to its original design. This creates the conspiracy theories about the banks owning everything, but in reality, this reflects the problem with centralized government that consumes all power unto itself.