Socrates Manual
We have been getting a lot of emails asking if we will provide a manual and what exactly will be included in the various stages. We have so much work to do with front-end delivery systems besides trying to get four books out this year. So to say I have a full plate is an understatement. This is why we will be hiring staff to help with a mountain of work. The AI system has been written – but it is more the delivery process that is time-consuming.
Here is a glimpse of the next page to be released to the Global Market Watch.
The Reversals will be mapped on the side of the chart so you can actually see where there are. You will get the Daily Array providing the timing. We are breaking out the various types of volatility so you can distinguish from an over-night move to a sharp move during the trading session.
The chart will provide the envelope for normal trading with the moving average point plotted within. You will also see the oscillator and a standard MACD for those who like that indicator.
We are testing to ensure the written reports the computer drafts are correct across a broad scope of markets. This will be available on every stock as well as market index, futures, commodity, and economic statistic from capital flows to GDP and debt. The nice thing about a computer writing these reports, government’s like China need not fear there is a political bias agenda created to instill some propaganda. The computer lacks emotions so there is no political judgment.
The QUERY function will allow you to ask any question. You will be able to ask it just about anything from what took place on January 21st, 1980, to what was the high and lows in a market on a given day to the major high and low. You can ask about political systems, correlations, what will happen if interest rates rise for it will have to calculate what change that would cause as it ripples through the world economy.
You will also be able to create your own portfolio of futures and stocks and have it track them. We are working on it actually send you an email or sms text alert if anything changes in you portfolio.
We are porting over the trading system. Here is a snapshot of the Cash S&P500. You can see it first began to buy the market the week of June 4th 2012 using the Reversal System. It that added 4 positions and took profit the week of 12/24/2012. However, it reentered the long-side the very next week 12/31/2012 and it has since then added a total of 9 positions. This has been merged now with our timing and pattern recognition models to provide a full picture of trading with our system of risk/rewards in addition to the BIG MOVERS.
Then we will unleash the Asset Allocation Model. This will be currency based as will be the Portfolio and trading systems. You can ask it to create a Natural Hedge or should there be a hedging strategy employed. This will be great for mining companies as well as major corporations.
The computer calculations are truly far beyond anything even a team of hundreds of analysts could possibly do in a timely manner. Not merely will this analyze the entire world, it will then calculate every instrument in the world in all the major money center currencies. to predict capital flows Here is the Cash S&P500 plotted and traded in Euros. This provides a completely different perspective when compared to the dollar chart provided above.
There is NO analyst who can do all this work in a single week no less within 2 hours. This is why we need such high-end computing power because there is just so many calculations not even the best performing laptop or desktop computer can accomplish this output.
Of course this is not a solicitation for management and this is hypothetical trading since it trades everything in the world. It always provide the entry and exist for you shouldNEVER enter a trade in anything without knowing where you are wrong for the exit strategy.
Computer v Man
QUESTION: Can a computer be better than human analysis?
ANSWER: Yes. Why? Because NOBODY can be 100% all the time and NOBODY can purge all bias or presumption. It is a hard thing to do. People have come to our conferences NOT to hear my personal opinion, but to hear what the computer has concluded. This has been a journey that we are all part of. There were people attending this 2014 conference who had been at the 1987 conferences the weekend of the Crash. They confirmed I stood there after electing a set of Double Weekly Bearish Reversals at 286.10 with absolutely nothing there until the next reversal at 181.30. I was desperately trying to find some support between the two levels even technically, yet I could not. They asked what now? I simply stated the reality. The market should drop to 180 in two days based upon time and price. It did. Then I said the low was in place because it bottomed precisely the day of the ECM and that new highs would be seen by 1989. That happened. The same forecast was made in 2011 that we should see new highs going into 2014. That too has unfolded. These were NOT my personal opinion.
While those forecasts have been widely reported over the years, they have been reported as if I was some sort of brilliant genius whose knowledge or opinion was better than everyone else. This is the way the analytic community operates – one opinion against another. The reality was nothing of the sort. People attend to hear the computer -not me! Nobody can forecast a market from personal opinion consistently for 30 years. I have found that the harder it was for me to believe in a forecast the higher the probability it was correct. Why? Because I do not care who we are or how much experience we have as an individual, we are still plagued by human emotions that can be bullish or bearish. OPINION cannot be consistent.
This is why Socrates does more than replace me – it is beyond what even I can do as a human being for we are all fallible no matter what we want to pretend. We make mistakes and hopefully we learn from them but the next generation still has to stick their finger in the flame of a candle to see if it really does hurt for themselves. Hence, we cannot escape our humanity.
Australian Corruption
COMMENT FROM AUSTRALIA:
Hi Marty,
Australians are going through their own process of revulsion at the behaviour of politicians.
Our Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) is finding the dirt connecting both sides of politics.
REPLY: It is systemic – it is everywhere. Republics ALWAYS degenerate into oligarchies without exception.
American Oligarchy
During the 1990s, Bill Kristol who had been a chief of staff in the White House administration during the Bush Sr Administration, was starting his magazine the Weekly Standard. To help him out, we took the back cover on a weekly basis to help him launch his magazine. I believe we were his first advertiser. He in return spoke at one of our conferences.
The themes of the advertisements were for political reform illustrating the truth about a lot of political issues. I was shocked at how just taking the back cover in a magazine gathered so much influence without even trying. I was invited to all sorts of parties and anyone who was anyone wanted to meet me. Influence was obviously obtainable for a cheap price.
Dealing with Washington over the years taught me a lot. I have been inside the belly of the beast as well as on the outside. I have seen it all from every angle. Government is not run by democracy – it is a republic oligarchy pretending to be a democracy. Now a study is coming out an it confirms what I have seen over the years that this is just an American Oligarchy. There is no hope of honest politics until there is major serious reform. We are at the same point in our history as the fall of the Roman Republic and for the very same reasons – outrageous corruption
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