Russian Invasion of Eastern Ukraine Has Begun
The crisis in Eastern Ukraine appears to be a Russian invasion albeit covertly precisely the same way it was first done in Crimea. On April 12th, the realization that the Russian Federation has actually invaded Ukraine began to be realized and the National Security and Defense Council was urgently convened. The Minister of Internal Affairs said “Ukraine is considering the facts of today as display external Russian aggression.”
It has been reported that Pro-Russian activists occupying the government buildings in Sloviansk (Donetsk region) have seized about 400 weapons. They have even used the Russian propaganda that those in Kiev are fascists as their excuse for separation. However, this may be merely a diversion for the activists have weapons used only by are military and include rocket launchers as well as grenade launchers. They are clearly preparing a military takeover by force. The concerted campaign underway apparently has the support from Russia in an effort to take the entire nation.
Men wearing the green unmarked uniforms that first appeared in Crimea have been spotted in Sloviansk. However, separatists in Crimea have simultaneously announced they are now the “Ukrainian Federation” that will join Belarus and Russia and will include the Eastern Ukrainian cities of Luhansk, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Odesa. This was announced by the self-proclaimed Deputy Prime Minister of Crimea Temirhaliyev. He has announced the “liberation of South Eastern Ukraine” confirming the occupation of Eastern Ukraine by Russia has begun.
US Share Market – Here We Go Again
As always, the talking heads jump all over the market to predict major highs and the inevitable collapse/ The sharp selloff in US high-growth technology and biotech shares led the way and now they are talking about more than a minor pullback when earnings pick up speed next week. The 1st-quarter earnings estimates have fallen sharply as many companies have blamed the gut-freezing winter for weak outlooks. Look at it this way – thank God there is global warming – can you imagine what the winter would have been without it?
The high-valuation stocks came under pressure and people still try to assess this market from the exclusive domestic perspective of earnings. They remain clueless regarding the global trend and capital flow analysis.
We closed on Friday at 1815.69 on the cash S&P500 and this was BELOW the first Weekly Bearish Reversal. However, the most amazing thing has developed. The FIRST Weekly Bullish is now at 1824.00 and then 1841.00. The past week was the Panic Cycle. We elected the Daily Bearish at 1841 on Thursday and that justified the Friday meltdown.
Here is the Array we displayed at the Conference. We now have two areas of overhead resistance forming at 1865-1874 followed by 1882-1886. The Daily Bearish Reversals are now at 1809, 1772, and 1742. Our weekly support now begins at 1772 and 1736. The FIRST Monthly Bearish lies at 1746 so this is the real key area to watch.
The decline came into the Break-Line support. We have support just slightly beneath Friday’s low.
We are showing choppy markets next week with volatility rising latter into the week and the following week.
Global Market Watch for April 11th, 2014
Debt & Taxes – Wisdom from the Past
One of the more interesting aspects of the coming final Blood Moon on September 28, 2015, this one also coincides with the end of the Jewish Shmita year. This is when the Israelites are to let the land rest and cancel all debts. This occurs every 7 years (2000-2001, 2007-2008, 2014-2015). The Ten Commandments forbids Marxism for its clearly states that you should NOTcovet thy neighbor’s goods. Socialism is all about taking money from people who earn it and they call this “social justice”. The other aspect concerning the cancellation of debts, is precisely what the IMF refuses to allow Ukraine to do. This is clearly stated:
Deuteronomy 15:1-3 (New International Version)
“At the end of every seven years you must cancel debts. This is how it is to be done: Every creditor shall cancel any loan they have made to a fellow Israelite. They shall not require payment from anyone among their own people, because the Lord’s time for canceling debts has been proclaimed. You may require payment from a foreigner, but you must cancel any debt your fellow Israelite owes you.”
Religion aside, this is very interesting for the two primary problems we have concern the expropriation of other people’s assets and the sovereign debt crisis. Did the ancients simply understand the cycle of debt far better than Marx and his followers who now run our governments today? Curious indeed! They simply justify robbing other people calling it “social justice” to mask what even the ancients said was wrong.
GMW v Market Forecasting & ECM
There are three complete different core models that we are employing that are absolutely totally unique and the interesting thing is when they CONVERGE – not that they have anything in common otherwise.
The Economic Confidence Model is a business cycle and that has been tested back to at least 600BC. It shows the rise and fall of empire, nations, and city states. Because it is derived form international data, it provide a unique perspective of the world as a whole. The frequency repeats throughout all cultures and centuries and incorporates everything since it is a nature frequency. That means nature and man. It is a guide from the business cycle perspective that the New Yorker Magazine called the “Secret Cycle”. Others have remarked at turning points such as Barrons in 2011.
Then every market has its own frequency that is in part created by a host of interactions. They move in and out of convergence with time as illustrated here with the gold frequency of 16 weeks and the 18 week frequency in silver. Everything has its own time and place.
There there is the pattern recognition models. Here the computer is mapping patterns and that is across ALL markets demonstrating that it is human nature that is the common denominator. How people react is consistent regardless of the market. This is not a 100% perfect, but to be even better than 50% accurate demonstrates there is a common bond.
These three approaches to forecasting are important for they are all different and what becomes exciting is the CONVERGENCE. This is the critical aspect to watch and understand.
Keep in mind that we always NEED the skeptics for the markets move always against the majority and that is how they function. Markets crash when the majority are bullish for they try to sell and there is no bid. Likewise at the bottom, you need the excessive bearishness where they are short and most people will not buy when markets continually decline.
In the end, the key is CONVERGENCE and the more model that accomplish this at the same time, the higher the probability that the forecast will be correct.