Why Does Deflation Cause the Currency to Rise?
It has often been a paradox that the worse an economy turns down, the higher the currency rises. Cheer up – it is a bell curve. If the currency goes TOO FAR and the economy has no hope of survival, then it reverses and collapses into dust through the process of a Phase Transition. This is the Paradox of Fundamental Analysis where people try to craft these single one dimensional explanations of the world. It does not matter what we are talking about interest rates, currency values, inflation, or deflation – it is all the same type of movement.
Part of the RISE IN A CURRENCY during a decline is the rise in the currency value is the shift from PRIVATE to PUBLIC confidence during a decline in the ECM even on the short 8.6 year business cycle waves. This is called often theFLIGHT TO QUALITY where people want cash and dump assets. This is why the stock market crashes or whatever the sector is that absorbed the cash.
No matter what economy we look at, the currency will RISE during the economic decline driven domestically by this flight to quality. The US dollar rose to record highs during the Great Depression. This helps to turn the economy down as exports collapse as well. During the 1930s, this sparked the Age of Protectionism.
The dollar rose sharply into 1985 from its low going into 1980. The steep deflationary recession drove the dollar to its highest point and as you can see our index demonstrates that the trend is not complete. Keep in mind that the coming dollar rally will unfold mostly after 2015.75 and the US economy turns down.
The collapse in the dollar against the Japanese yen came as part of the burst in the Japanese bubble that began from the December 1989 high. The rise in the yen was consistent with what I am describing, albeit people find this a paradox and expect the currency to decline with the economy.
That portion of the trend unfolds when you cross the bell curve and head down. The British pound was the reserve currency of the world up until 1914. Thereafter, Britain entered the downside of the Bell Curve and this was driven by debt expansion.
When Britain entered World War I, its debt ration exploded and Britain began the collapse of its currency at that point on a sustained basis.
We can see the decline in interest rates into the 1900 period. Thereafter, we see a trend with rising rates.
This is what we will see with the Euro as it completes its deflationary rally that will push Europe over the edge. Their exports will drop and tax rates will rise further.
The early stages of the deflation are marked by the flight to quality and this will give way when the economy becomes unsustainable due to the high value of the currency. Once the euro peaks, then the foreign capital will sell aggressively. It is just a matter of time.
Brokers v Market Makers
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You previously mentioned you cannot trust the big firms in New York. Does this apply to their branch offices outside NYC?
Thank you;
JT
ANSWER: That comment referred to MARKET MAKING where they keep track of who buys what. That is totally different from having a broker at a major firm where you buy stocks or commodities or even ETFS and bonds.
That comment referred to only MARKET MAKING and that really applies to proprietary dealing concerning large players or buying debt issues the firms are reselling. That does not apply to normal shares or futures contracts. That is where a major company is buying a particular bond issue over-the-counter of a specific entity – not even US government bonds.
Having a local broker at a firm even at Merrill Lynch is totally dependent upon each broker. You want someone you can trust and is not going to sell you crap because he is told to do so from the firm’s lawyers or management. That is more of a bucket-shop that was highlighted in the movie Wolf of Wall Street. I saw that movie with a friend who was not familiar with the industry and she turned to me and asked – is that what you use to do? That was the classic pump-and-dump shop, not one of the larger firms.
The key is to find someone you can trust – that is everything. If they are familiar with our material, generally you have a kindred spirit and that is 90% of the battle. If they are in tune with what we are about, then this shows they have a desire to understand HOW the market functions rather than throw you to the wolves to make the highest buck.
Typically after a crash, the lawyers come in and run a firm. You need to ensure that your broker remains independent minded and does not offer you investments because the lawyers upstairs told him so. Good brokers will usually buck that trend.
You normally want someone with some experience and exposure to at least one boom and bust. That is critical so they know what goes up also goes down and he is not afraid to say sell when it is time rather hold and average in – the mark of a promoter.
We have been asked if we could put a list of brokers together who we know follow our work. We will look into that. Sometimes the best way is to meet them at out conferences.
Socialism at its Best – How to Destroy the Wealth of a Nation
COMMENT: Marty,
You know there is tax competition amongst states and cities in Switzerland which lead to great results once in terms of efficiency and therefore attracting people to take their families and move to states with lower taxation. Often quite outside of the metropoles so also helping to populate remote parts of the country.
Of course, one day the traditional high tax states got jealous, amongst them the state of Bern with the capitol and politicians there. So they introduced a new system of taxing all states and allocating the tax income of efficient states to the inefficient ones, thereby turning the competitive Swiss tax system upside down.
As a result now for 2013, the state of “Schwyz”, according to all statistics one of the states with lowest expenses for administration, with a fully balanced budget, and highly attractive for many “rich” families, turned into the state with the highest deficit per capita – precisely to the amount which has to be allocated to other states..
The perversion is – the allocation is not based on real tax income – you would be able to manage – no, it is based on how high you COULD tax your citizens based on their wealth and income ! So, the more you attracted people with high income and assets in the past due to low taxes, the more you now have to send to other states – but since you did not earn that money you now have to borrow this first and then increase taxes to amortize..
Marty, everywhere in this world there is socialism at its best.. even in the most direct democracy of this planet..
J
REPLY: This in no longer about “social justice” – it is about “tax-farming” as the Romans called it. This is all about lining the pockets of those in government so they need not reform. This is merely Adam Smith;s Invisible Hand. It is the government’s self-interest to exploit everything they can from the people and it matters not what country we are talking about these days nor the political system. This is why Communism collapsed and it is why the West will collapse.
There is simply no viable alternative to the outcome we face. You cannot say hey – look at this. They will not listen. You are asking for them to reform and they will NEVER act other than their own self-interest as long as they can get away with it. This is why Jefferson said revolution was part of the cycle and necessary. Homeland Security did not buy tanks to protect the people from terrorists, they needed 2700 tanks for street use to protect government from the people.
Ayn Rand was absolutely spot on. Ayn was a Russian Jew whose family business was confiscated during the Revolution. She was able to visit relatives in 1925 in the USA and never returned. Ayn became a voice of reason against the socialistic policies that were truly engulfing the Western world including the United States.
In the USA, academia generally ignored or rejected her philosophy , because they were and largely are still in favor of “social justice” – the code-word for Marxism. True, some in academic are starting to pay attention to Ayn Rand in recent decades. However, the idea of Marxism that there should be this “social justice” that is the mental justification for confiscating the wealth of others who are more productive still dominates today. This destructive dishonest force is even curiously one of the violations of the Ten Commandments warning that it is a grave sin – coveting their neighbor’s goods. Saying it is not fair that someone has more than you is no different from saying their spouse is more attractive so just take them as well. Perhaps their children are smarter – confiscate them as well. Their car, house – hell – they are not more talented, just lucky or probably corrupt and deserve to have their wealth confiscated for surely you will know better how to spend that money than they do. This is their reasoning behind“social justice”.
Atlas Shrugged is a 1957 novel by Ayn Rand and it maybe her greatest work. The book explores a dystopian, increasingly socialist, post-economic collapse United States where many of society’s wealthiest citizens refuse to pay skyrocketing taxes, reject new regulations and disappear, shutting down the country’s vital industries. This is the productive force that is holding society together for it is small business that provides 70% of all employment, yet they are the target to always exploit by the greedy politicians and jealous people who do not want to work for what they have. If this productive segment simply refused to employ others, indeed society would utterly collapse into dust. Government is far too greedy and creates nothing but death from war and destruction by reducing economic growth.
So this experiment to grab money from people who leave abusive tax states within Switzerland demonstrates just how evil government becomes. It isALWAYS and without a SINGLE exception, the dark force that historically always destroys society.
The ONLY political system that has any possible hope of surviving greater extended periods of time is one where ALL agencies are privatized and that the bureaucratic portion of government be ONLY career. The elected body must be with a term limit of one year and NEVER again. This is the only way to ensure that government does not engulf and dominate society for if the head of state revolves annually, they will NEVER pass a law they KNOW will apply to them the following year.
We need to eliminate the MOST DESTRUCTIVE force within society and that is its direct taxing power. Money is the total productivity of a nation – not its natural resources nor its gold reserves. Japan rose to the second largest economy with gold or natural resources and PROVED that Adam Smith was correct as was Ayn Rand – it is the TOTAL productivity of the people that is the Wealth of a Nation. Nurture that – and you will save the future from repeating the destruction of the past.
