Canadian Dollar – The Befuddling Paradox
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I understand you will be speaking in Vancouver tonight. Given the size of the audience, could you at least answer one question about the currency. You said the dollar would decline following gold’s lead. It is true that the currency has declined by more than 10%, but it did not make a new high in 2011 with gold. Can you explain the implication for that looking forward?
Thank you for always remembering Vancouver
RB
ANSWER: You have to keep in mind that cyclical forces function both INTRADAY as well as on a CLOSING BASIS. We have the same variation in gold with the intraday high forming in 2011 but 2012 was the highest yearly closing. In the case of the C$, it is true that the intraday low came 5 years from the high on a perfect bear market cycle. There was a brief reaction and a turn back down for the Greenback. However, 2011 was the reaction low but theLOWEST annual closing for the entire move was that of 2012, the same as we saw in gold. So the model was satisfied and the C$ fell 11%. The primary target resistance for the Greenback stands at the 118 level. From every perspective, the Greenback is rising in a sea of political confusion. No one can believe it and the short positions are staggering against the Greenback. Nevertheless, it has to rise to clean out the shorts that cannot grasp thatCONFIDENCE establishes value – not supply.
The Government of Russia & Ukraine are not the People of Either Country
No matter what country we look at be it Russia, Cuba, China, or North Korean, there is a formidable difference between thePEOPLE and the GOVERNMENT – for there is a distinction and by no means are they one and the same. It is not the Russian people suppressing Ukraine – this is all driven by governments and nothing else. Thomas Paine wrote Common Sense and that piece inspired the American Revolution. His words to this day still ring true:“Society in every state is a blessing, but government even in its best state is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one.” The critical point that made Common Sense really important was it separated the PEOPLE as the sovereign of a nation from government. Government is NOT the nation regardless of what it proclaims. What we see in Ukraine is the uprising ofPEOPLE against a corrupt government. The Russian mercenaries are sent in between governments – not even with the knowledge of the people. So by no means whatsoever, does the Russian people sanction mercenaries or suppression of Ukraine any more than the American people supported Obama’s desire to invade Syria at the behest of Saudi Arabia. Governments are all about maintaining power over the people. They by no means representthe people as they proclaim or people like Snowden would not have to hide in Russia because of the morally corrupt Obama Administration.
I was in Japan when the First Gulf War took place. The Western Press ridiculed Japan and said that they were willing to send money, but were too arrogant to send their boys. That resonated in Japan and the government wanted to change the Constitution to allow Japanese troops beyond 200 miles from Japanese shores. I had never seen a protest in Japan of any size. The streets were filled with people protesting against any such change. To the Japanese, they did not trust government and feared that if their Constitution was changed, it would lead to a rise in their military that they blamed for creating World War II. The will of the people SHOULD NEVERbe assumed to be the will portrayed by government.
To put the record straight about mercenaries, the French had their “Foreign Legion” and King George III also used mercenaries for the same reason – they were German. Indeed, ethnic Germans served on both sides of the American Revolution. Many supported monarchy and served as paid allies of Great Britain. Other Germans came to assist the rebelling American patriots.
Using mercenaries has been very common and it is a vital role in using troops from foreign lands to suppress domestic citizens when there is war or civil unrest. Leonardo da Vinci’s famous 1480 drawing ofProfilo di capitano antico, also known as il Condottiero. “Condottiero” means “leader of mercenaries” and in Italy during the Late Middle Ages and the Renaissance, the use of mercenaries was the common practice.
The use of mercenaries by Ukraine is by no means unusual. It is standard practice in the book of how to rule and suppress your people. The stories are all over the internet that Obama fired many generals who said they were UNWILLING to defend the government against American citizens. So let us make this absolutely clear – the use of Russian mercenaries who have even been torturing protesters in Ukraine, is by no means a reflection upon the Russian people who are separate and distinct just as American citizens were never asked about the NSA spying on the world right down to children or Obama’s firing of generals unwilling to defend the “government” against the American people.
I have stated that if the Ukrainian people can rouse the spirits of the police against the mercenary “riot police”, then they can take their country. Even Machiavelli notes the weakness of mercenaries – they lack the conviction and loyalty of the fight. He wrote in Chapter XII of the Prince:
“Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy.”
Government is always like a parasite living off of the productive capacity of the people regardless of what form you call the government. Thrasymachus’ argument against Socrates was superb and Socrates was wrong since Socrates assumed that in a Democracy the people would always seek justice. He discovered that the form of Government was totally irrelevant.
The only government structure that seemed to have worked for a few hundred years was where the head of state held that position for just one year and never again. In that manner, he would never enact something he himself would not wish to live under. Once you have CAREER politicians, regardless of the form of government, they enact laws that relieve them of the very same responsibilities they impose upon the people.
The only Emperor/head of state who held that the laws must apply to him as well, was assassinated – Julian II (361-364AD) . He was also disregarded because of prejudice since he was a Pagan in the House of Constantine. For this reason, he wore a beard when beards were regarded as pagans and was given the title of the Apostate, when he was one of the greatest Philosophers.
Nevertheless, Julian had good reason to turn his back against Christianity. Upon Constantine’s death, he watched “Christians” murder all potential heirs to the throne from a former wife of Constantine, including his father. It became known as the Midnight Massacre that forever shaped his life. He was saved only because he was not sleeping there that night. Julian saw that professing to be a Christian did not make someone any different when it came to power. Indeed, we see Presidents go to church every Sunday and scheme to invade other nations simultaneously.
Understanding Intelligence
QUESTIONS: Several questions have asked the same thing. First, for understanding terms, look at out Glossary, Trading Terms, and Monetary Terms.
Regarding the Global Market Watch:
Mr. Armstrong; Your Global Market Watch called for a crash in gold when it made a new high and closed higher. The next day it indeed crashed as if it were in a free-fall. How is it possible to predict a crash when it moved higher?
Others asked:
Also, on your market watch where you have Weekly Trend and Monthly Trend. Is the weekly for the week (Monday thru Friday) that we are currently in or for the next 5 trading days beginning with today? Is the monthly for the current month we are in (January-December) or for the next say 20-25 trading days beginning today?
Since cycles are already in motion, how far in advance are the daily trends known. Seeing them at the end of the day after they have already happened is a little suspect.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge through your site – I feel that I could benefit immensely if I could only understand it better.
ANSWER: The Global Market Watch is a completely different system. It is working entirely off of patterns and the second page gives the pattern number for that day. This new advanced version is quite different from the old version. Its capacity is really unlimited to create its own knowledge base and anything it encounters that is different from the past it records and then assigns a number to that pattern. In this manner, it becomes a cognitive learning machine whereby I have not hard-wired specific patterns to look for. The old code had some hard-wiring, but it became obvious that such a system would not work for the pattern combinations were tremendous. I am not even sure if there is a limit. Every single aspect is measured and plotted from how it opens to how that session closed. The most subtle details are never over-looked.
The current week and month are DYNAMIC – not rolling. So as far as Monday, the computer considered that as a completed week. It then adds Tuesday and recalculates those two days as if it were the complete week. In this way, we can see the daily price action impact on weekly and monthly levels. Only when that week or month is complete will the computer write that into the file as final and complete and start again.
The Training Session Conference (March 23rd) will demonstrate this fascinating dynamic structure of the markets and how to trade them in more detail. However, it is always yourself that is your trading opponent – not some conspiracy group lurking in the shadows. We have a human tendency to buy when everyone else is buying and panic when the herd panics. How to survive your own trading decisions is absolutely critical. It requires pureCONFIDENCE for if you always question if you are on the right path, then you will recheck everything and not get caught up in the herd. Losses take place when you blame others when in fact the Global Market Watch proves that pattern recognition can predict the next day without knowing any fundamentals or conspiracy groups.
The Global Market Watch is NON-HUMAN, so it is absolute perfection insofar as being free from the herd mentality. It is not 100% correct every day because like a child, it is a cognitive learning machine and it will quickly adapt to new changes. It comprehends that doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. So its design is SUPER-HUMANand it assumes there is always something new to learn.
There is a new movie coming out that I have received a few email about starring Johnnie Depp – Transcendence. Yes this is a movie loosely in part on what I have been doing in constructing a computer with the collective knowledge base of humanity. However, the film takes it to the next step and the plot centers around the fact that they gave this computer the full range of human emotion. FIRST, I will say I do not believe that is actually possible, and SECOND, it is something that would defeat the objective. It makes for great SciFi film thrillers, but Transcendence, as a programmer, I do not believe is even possible nor truly advisable. Yes – I will go watch it. It was Jules Verne who wrote about submarines and they thought he was nuts as well. As a programmer who has tried to map the way the brain processes data, I do not believe it is remotely possible to achieve the full range of human emotion in a machine other than mimicking. I am not convinced that if your create enough capacity, consciousness just emerges from nowhere.
So my goal has been to create a machine that will survive me, will provide us with purely intelligence FREE of emotion, and establish a collective ongoing knowledge base that just may help us understand how the world really functions in a complex dynamic network. Can you imagine if courts of law were administered by such a machine without human emotion? There would be no corruption – just the facts. You could not bribe the judge or appoint your brother-in-law.* Government could not exempt itself from the same laws. Snowden would not be the traitor, it would be those who are trying to prosecute him for it is the people who are the sovereign, not government officials. Interesting concept.
* To be a Judge in an agency like the SEC or CFTC, you do not even have to have any degree in law. There is absolutely no requirement to be a judge other than you know somebody.
Global Market Watch Update for Jan 30th, 2014
Thailand Anti-Government Corruption
The anti-government protests in Thailand are against corruption. This is the same trend we are seeing in Ukraine and will erupt in Europe, Japan, and then eventually the USA after 2016. The economy has to turn down before you get protests.
The downside of these types of protests is when the police benefit from the corruption. Then as you can see in this photograph, far too often to see the hatred in their eyes driven by self-interest – they like the corruption the way it is.
The Shocking Truth in Ukraine Mainstream Will Not Report – There is a Chance to be Free At Last
The significance of Ukraine is far beyond what the mainstream press has dared to even portray. This is how Empires, Nations, and City States eventually collapse. There have been protesters gone missing. Some have resurfaced only with stories of being tortured. Some politicians have tried to distance themselves from President Viktor Yanukovich realizing this guy is dangerous and will not leave office. Yanukovich in turn came out and threaten to destroy them. In effect, there is no direct translation for what he said, it is like using a steam roller and flattening them into the road.
The riot police are most likely NOT even Ukrainian – they are NOTthe local police. No one actually knows where these thugs came from, but they appear to be mercenaries perhaps from Russia. The local police are now starting to side with the people outside of Kiev and realize they are not the thugs involved suppressing the people of Ukraine.
There is historically always a serious problem whenever government tries to use police and troops against the people. Yeltsin became famous for standing on the tanks and telling the army not to shoot their own people. This is a very critical lesson from history. The famous Nika Revolt of 532AD in Constantinople saw the precise same pattern. The local police and military troops were not defending government. The Emperor called in a legion stationed outside the city that were not native to that region. That eliminated the serious problem of not killing their neighbors and some 30,000 protesters were slaughtered.
There are two directions historically that unfold in this process and we need to pay close attention to Ukraine for here is the fate of Europe and the United States in a petri dish. The world economy crashes always from the peripheral regions and it spreads back to the core. Thus, we are seeing this patter in Ukraine and rising civil unrest in Europe. This trend will eventually hit the USA starting as early as 2016.
The second trend is when a nation is moving into revolutionary collapse internally. Here we find the division of loyalties emerges. The Ukrainian protesters need the strength and might of the police against the mercenaries. If they can gather the support of the police and military against Yanukovich, then they stand a chance to take their country to real freedom.
There is a significant difference between the “free economy” in Russia v that in Kiev and what is truly at stake here. In Moscow, there are big restaurants ONLY all own by Oligarchs. In Kiev, you have small stores are independent people with their own livelihoods. The Communist State of Russia where government-owned everything has merely been replaced with Oligarchs. There is no real small entrepreneurship to speak of. You cannot compete against the Oligarchs.
Read carefully the report on the Nika Revolt. There too, there were Senators that sought to overthrow the Emperor. The foreign troops sustained the government and they were exiled. The same patter has emerged with politicians from Yanukovich’s own party are abandoning him.
This is a great sign and if the protesters could possibly get organized with leaders who are smart rather than just pretend politicians, Ukraine could be free at last.
The Real Threat to American Liberty – Clapper
James Clapper has effectively testified that the entire world is a threat – at least in his mind. “We face an enduring threat to US interests overseas.” said James Clapper, to Congress. He fails to realize that his own actions are also a threat to everything the Constitution was intended to prevent. The damage to the world economy is staggering to say the least. You cannot protect our liberty by circumventing it to protect it.