Investors Dumping Hedge Funds Who Missed the Whole Trend
Investors have been bailing out of hedge funds at the fastest pace in four years. Most hedge funds have performed miserably missing the stock rally, confused in metals and commodities, bewildered by the currency and bond markets, and befuddled by the collapse in emerging markets. The asset allocations have never been so bad. The forecasts have actually never been so bad.
Training Seminar v World Economic Conference March 2014
QUESTION: Martin,
Firstly, thanks for all the information you are kindly sharing on your website – it is very helpful and informative.
I have a question regarding the upcoming technical analysis training conference in March this year.
I attended the 2011 Analytical Technical Training Seminar in Philadelphia on Dec 3, 2011 and wanted to ask whether the Training Conf event this year is similar in terms of training materials/topics – ie. downtrend/uptrend/break/breakout/projection/momentum lines, advance/decline channel analysis, channel/plateau move, waterfall event, etc.. – or whether there will be new training materials presented?
I am basically trying to decide if I should attend the technical/training conference this year (if enough new material) considering I attended your prior technical analysis training event in 2011.
Could you please advise what you recommend.
Thanks and regards,
J
ANSWER: The 2011 session was limited because it was part of a 2 day event. This time one full day will be devoted to strategic trading and we will be going over cycles, reversals, and how to position trade for the big moves. The WEC on March 25-26 will be the forecasting which markets will be the best performers going into 2015. So this session will be HOW to trade whereas the WEC will be what to trade.
Hyperinflation Impossibility in Private Sector
COMMENT:
Martin, would the Hyper Inflation Deflation Debate be as simple as using a stock share consolidation example to get it to people’s thick heads who believe Hyperinflation is coming?
If a large Company like Google was going bankrupt due to enormous debt does the public actually believe the shares would hyper-inflate LOL! Do you think they would attempt to raise more money and print more shares through another share issue and that will cause their coffers to fill and stock to double ? lol Do you think they could raise the money from the public or private interest!
NOOOOOOOO! They would have to cut out expenses or raise revenue by charging more for advertising or come up with some miracle.
The only thing that could happen is DEFLATION… In other words those shares would collapse and then,only then a consolidation at bargain value could occur and start anew.
If a large Company like Google was going bankrupt due to enormous debt does the public actually believe the shares would hyper-inflate LOL! Do you think they would attempt to raise more money and print more shares through another share issue and that will cause their coffers to fill and stock to double ? lol Do you think they could raise the money from the public or private interest!
NOOOOOOOO! They would have to cut out expenses or raise revenue by charging more for advertising or come up with some miracle.
The only thing that could happen is DEFLATION… In other words those shares would collapse and then,only then a consolidation at bargain value could occur and start anew.
PD
REPLY: Good example. These people who only want to see hyperinflation have no end game. They seem to think the currency becomes worthless and then what? In the case of Germany, they issued a new currency backed by real estate and then turned to Adolf Hitler. Hitler blamed the bankers who happened to be Jews and that was then extended to the entire Jewish race that benefited Hitler by confiscating all their assets. He made it a criminal to have a bank account outside of Germany and in 1934 Switzerland adopted secrecy laws.
Hitler still turned against the people selecting groups one by one that had an economic benefit – he got their assets. These people seem to think there will be hyperinflation, they will all become rich, and society will be the same. I do not know where these ideas come from since that has never happened even once in history.
We are is serious trouble. Sorry – they are hunting everything that is not nailed down. Liquidity in markets is still down by nearly 50% from 2007 levels. The retail market is not yet booming in equity. The shift from public to private assets is underway BECAUSE government is hunting capital. Big money is trying to get off the grid – meaning out of the banking system and is willing to start parking in areas from collectibles and diamonds to equity and real estate.
So while you are waiting for hyperinflation, turn around. The guy tapping you on the shoulder is likely to be from the government asking for more money. These people are broke and the bankers are demanding “real” money not pretend money for repayment. That comes from hunting you down. Just as a company cannot hyperinflate – neither can the state and local levels. There are the BULK of the debt and unfunded liabilities that cloud the future.
Hyperinflation Is it even Possible?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have investigated your explanation of hyperinflation and can see that you are correct in that this is limited to third world and revolutionary governments. Is it correct to say that as government becomes a bit more aggressive to try to meet its obligations, the economic collapse is a self-destruction process of deflation?
ANSWER: Correct. We are seeing benefits cut on a major scale. Detroit filed bankruptcy and that shines a light on the path for state and municipal governments going forward – DEFLATION. Even in Germany, about half of the municipal governments are likely to end in bankruptcy. This theory of hyperinflation is just not realistic. We have generally a three-tier form of government – not one. The state and local governments are incapable of printing money. They can only default upon pensions and liabilities. That is what happened to many states during the 1840s.
Andrew Jackson destroyed the Bank of the United States and shifted federal deposits to state banks. That proved to be a disaster and collectors call this the period of the Broken Banknote era for numerous banks issued their own money. As state banks went bankrupt, some states issued bonds trying to bail out the banks. They ended up defaulting on state bonds where some remain on the books of the Bank of England to this day.
This nonsense about the risk of hyperinflation is antiquated and fails to take into consideration the modern three tier government structure. Established government ALWAYS, and without exception, keep raising taxes to sustain their power. Even the City of Mainz kept raising taxes driving the rich to flee the city and completely destroyed the entire economy. Mainz had been where the Guttenberg press began and this created like an internet boom. The politicians went nuts and assumed this new found wealth would never end and they borrowed against future revenues that did not materialize. The worse it became, the more they raised taxes. Mainz eventually defaulted on their bonds and the creditors sacked the city and burned it to the ground. This was before there was even a national state.
If you open your eyes and abandon this prejudice that we have to collapse in hyperinflation, then perhaps you will be able to survive. You will see that the difference between the destruction of the economy by hyperinflation or deflation is like getting on an amusement ride. The question is do you pay for the ride before you get on (deflation) or when you get off (hyperinflation)? This assumption of hyperinflation must be the inevitable outcome is way too generous. You are assuming politicians will create money to meet obligations rather than reduce their promises, change laws, hunt down money and the rich everywhere while rising taxes on everyone, and eventually just default when they cannot sell any more bonds.
The bankers and foreign governments will not tolerate hyperinflation in a mature economy. Revolutionary and third world governments can go into hyperinflation because there is nobody willing to lend them money. When we have the entire world using US government bonds as “reserves”, it is simply not possible to maintain that position and hyperinflate at the same time. This is why they are hunting down anyone with money right now destroying the world economy going after children and mentally incompetent people.
There are people who still have not received their refund checks from last year. They are told their payments are under “investigation”. I knew one person who always paid more so he could get that refund check in a chunk. He is still waiting for his $50,000.
These theories of hyperinflation are far too simplistic. Yet people are so sold on this idea and hell-bent that it just has to happen, they cannot see the trend before their eyes. Government is hunting capital and destroying the world economy. It is not expanding – it is contracting. The velocity of money is declining along with liquidity in markets and volatility in 2013. This is a set up for a major crisis, but it will not be inflation. Sorry, just look at the rising unemployment in Europe. Governments are destroying the future of the youth. We face rising civil unrest because the world economy is being seriously weakened by all these hair-brain ideas of socialism where almost 70% of the national debt went out the back-door to interest payments, not to help a soul.
So while you are looking for hyperinflation – government will be looking at you and what you have they can grab. Why do you think Homeland Security bought more than 2700 tanks for domestic use and enough bullets to shoot every citizen 5 times? This does not suggest they will meet their obligations and just inflate their way out.
Booking at Loews Hotel for March Conference
Fourth Dimension
This will include How to Trade using the Fourth Dimension & The Forecasts for the Biggest Movers into 2015 from around the world. Loews is located 2 blocks from the Convention Center so you are within walking distance. You will also be within walking distance of Independence Hall and the Liberty Bell,
We have a Room Block at less than $170 a night (saving $100) but this is very limited and on a first come first serve basis. We do not control that aspect so act very fast
Global Market Watch January 13th, 2014
The Global Market Watch has been posted for the close of January 13th, 2014.
Extraordinarily Interesting the Sound of Pi
Civil Unrest Rising – Protesters now Threatened with 15 years in Prison
In Bangkok, the rising tide in anti-government demonstrations has led to a warning that any disruption of air traffic controllers may now result in a 15 year prison term. We are seeing this same trend against free speech appearing around the world. In Spain it is a €600,000 fine to protest in Parliament. As socialism continues to implode governments we will see rising civil unrest and a contagion of municipal defaults not just in the USA, but nearly 50% of municipal governments in Germany are unsound. The degree of government debt that may simply implode is staggering. We are not looking at hyperinflation, but massive deflation for the state and local levels are incapable of increasing the money supply to bail themselves out.
Taxes & Legal Wordsmithing. One’s Interpretation is never Another’s
In the tax code there are provisions that clearly state that payment for employment is taxable defining wages as “all remuneration for employment.” However, when a company closes down and tries to be fair to its employees providing severance payments, as in the case of Quality Stores, you are receiving money not for employment. Clearly, wages are taxable for FICA purposes, but the Obama administration is arguing that it does not matter if you actually worked.
The tax code if a different section states that “supplemental unemployment benefits” are exempted from income taxes. It would seem from the plain language that severance payments should be exempt from FICA taxes since they are not for employment but to compensate for your unemployed status.
So once again we have government that loves to show-boat saying how the Republicans are cold-hearted to cut off unemployment benefits, but they are hunting down retarded children unable to file their own tax forms and plan to argue before the Supreme Court that severance payments are taxable. This is always about they get more money out of people regardless what the law or ethics should dictate otherwise. This is called – the house always wins.
The Tax Hunt is for Anyone – not just the Rich!
The hunt for money as government get desperate is destroying the world economy but also the lives of so many people. I have reported previously how a 14-year-old cannot open an account in Switzerland because his mother is American, his father is Swiss, and he was born in Switzerland never traveling to the USA. Banks around the world are now sifting through their records and are to report anyone with American connection to the IRS. Countless people in Canada are scrambling running to their lawyers because one of their parents were an American.
Even retarded children are being sucked into this tax hunt. The law is the law and when these people wrote laws, they are too stupid to even understand the full implications of their actions. ANYONE who has not filed includes people who are not even competent to file. Money salted away by their parents for their care after they are gone means nothing.
The problem with the United States is they view all citizens as their property. It is not a question of paying your FAIR SHARE – they are hunting people who have never even lived in the USA and received no benefits whatsoever. This is all about their ownership of people no different from the King of England. Before the revolution, if you were British and killed someone in Paris, Paris was not permitted to punish you. They sent you back in chains to your Sovereign who owned you.
The American Revolution was all about freedom and the rejection of ownership by a Sovereign. This was the birth of TERRITORIAL JURISDICTION meaning that if you were from France and committed a crime in the United States, you were tried like a citizen for all the rights and privileges of citizenship applied since they would not send you back in chains to your king.
The American view that all citizens must pay taxes even when you are not living in the United States is a reversal of the entire principle of the American Revolution. We are no longer free citizens but still the property of the state. This is fundamentally UNCONSTITUTIONAL but you will never get any Federal Judge to listen. So here we are once again reduced to merely the property of the state with no right to be heard.
The true tragedy of this entire affair regarding the hunt for taxes, is that this is a barbaric relic of the past. Since money is no longer tangible and predominantly electronic, there is no need for taxes anymore. We should simply expand the money supply to cover expenses and stop the borrowing. Almost 70% of the national debt is accumulative interest payments. That means this whole socialistic Utopian dream of making the rich pay for the poor is the biggest lie ever invested. With such a high proportion of interest since we NEVER reduce the debt, one day 100% of all taxes will simply be exported to those holding bonds – that is the real transfer of wealth that has to come to an end or we will not survive the years ahead.