2015.75 Seems to be On Target
We have been warning that this turning point was different. Instead of a crash in private assets, as in 1998.55 or 2007.15 when the Case-Schiller peaked to the day, this time it was in government. Putin bombed Syria precisely on the day of the turning point (9/30/2015), but there were many stocks that bottomed with 9/30/2015.
Economically, Europe is melting down. Draghi has announced he will increase buying bonds to 33% from 25%. Medicare will explode by 50% in the USA next year; Social Security looks like a crater from a meteor crash. Indeed, 2015.75 was a major turning point that was the BEGINNING of a serious decline into 2020.05. Even politics has gone nuts and the media is starting to figure out that this is all about throwing the bums out. This is the start of a very serious new trend and it is time to wake up. The velocity will begin to pick up with the benchmark targets in gold.
Climate Always Changes
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I want to commend you for standing up against the covert agenda of global warming. It is dumbfounding how decades of research into geology can just be ignored. You are correct that everything changes. The magnetic polls move continually so places that were tropic became covered in ice and places that are ice will become tropic. The rain in the desert that miraculously created flowers from nowhere demonstrates how dynamic our climate truly is far beyond this narrowed view of climate. No one who is a real scientist would ever ascribe to this theory suggesting those advocating this theory are bribed or ignorant. Take you choice.
PD
REPLY: Correct. The Atacama desert experienced a burst of flowers springing to life after El Niño brought the heaviest rainfall in two decades earlier this year. The Atacama desert is normally one of the driest places on Earth. The flowers normally bloom every 5 to 7 years in cycles.
Then in Siberia, Russians discovered ancient seeds of a plant long extinct that they managed to bring back to life. It is the oldest plant to ever be regenerated after 32,000 years. This demonstrates that there was fertile land in Siberia and it was not always cold.
The Piri Reis map was accidentally discovered in 1929 in a Turkish museum. There is no logical explanation for a map that shows the detailed outline of Antarctica without ice unless there was no ice -– ancient global warming. In 1513, Turkish admiral Piri Reis designed the map of the world. This map then included Portugal, Spain, West Africa, Central and South Atlantic, the Caribbean, the eastern half of South America, and a part of Antarctica. It is also believed that there was North America, but the rest of the map was destroyed.
The point is that there is abundant evidence that the climate has ALWAYS changed; the magnetic poles have always moved, and with them, the ice. This is the picture that they use to sell their idea of global warming. A new NASA study of Antarctica has also shown that there is more ice than what has been alleged, quite frankly because the poles do move. The very same result has been shown at the North Pole – there is more ice today than when Al Gore first brought up the issue.
Instead of investigating and objectively understanding (1) that the poles move, and (2) climate has always changed, we have turned this into a justification for taxes by creating an alarming issue that is total nonsense. Changing the environment by throwing garbage in the water or diesel fuel in buses so you cannot breathe is a SEPARATE issue from changing the climate of the Earth. To achieve one is to exaggerate the other. Those who refuse to even consider alternates to the propaganda demonstrate that they have closed minds and cannot survive the turmoil of what is coming.
Market Talk November 3rd, 2015
Asia saw a mixed session with small plays in both directions from the core markets, the Hang Seng did however close strong (up 0.85%). Once the European session got underway most indices were trading heavy as the Euro continues to loose friends. That all changed however, once the US Markets opened for trading. After the initial weakness US Equities found renewed vigour and we saw strong buying (coupled with reasonable volume) across all sectors of the markets. Eventually the DOW closed up around 90 points (0.5%) but off the days highs.
Oil was another market that saw strong gains closing up over 3% on the day at $47.65 (TWI) and $50.20 (+2.85%) for Brent. Gold, on the other hand, did not do so well trading over $10 lower and was last seen at $1117 (-1.20%) but that should not really be a surprize when everyone is looking for positive carry trades!
There was more talk today of the Euro being the wrong side of the carry trade with players using that to buy Emerging Market currencies/assets. This is another reason why EM currencies saw good buying as we approach the big data due from ADP (in the US tomorrow), the European Retail Sales then the BoE decision Thursday followed at the end of the week by the US Non-Farms on Friday.
The long-end of the Bond Markets continue to drift as dealer watch the Equity market buying frenzy. The US curve steepened 2/10’s by 3bp and 10/30’s by 1bp with 30’s closing just under 3%. The spread TY/RX has been slowly widening in thin trade with last quote seen at +163bp. European debt traders are anxiously awaiting the European Retails Sales number which they are hoping will reflect Mario Draghi’s intentions. The whole street is aware there is only one buyer that matters and if anything happens to him it will look very ugly very quickly!
Agenda for the World Economic Conference
DAY ONE
We will be covering the global trends that will drive the capital flows. We will be looking ahead beyond 2015.75 and into the next two waves culminating in 2032.95. We will cover capital flows, the shifting tide in investment, and how to strategically position yourself for the turmoil ahead.
We will be looking at the global political changes, rising separatism, and why the USA is likely to experience a sharp rise in separatism. We will be reviewing the War Cycle, the Sovereign Debt Crisis, and their interactions with the Economic Confidence Model.
We will cover the big picture for equity, commodities, and bonds. When will gold bottom, why, and is there a significant alignment on the horizon?
Additionally, we will be presenting BOOT CAMP, which will explain how to use the models and comprehend what they mean. We will cover the new arrays, cyclical, technical, and fundamental analysis. By using the same model globally, you will be able to spot the trends unfolding.
DAY TWO:
Here we will get into the major markets and their forecasts. We will discuss understanding the flows to help you determine when it will be time to play and when it will be time to get out. We will be covering America, Europe, and Asia. This will include equities, commodities, real estate, and bonds.
SOCRATES DEMO:
We will be presenting a demo of Socrates.
The Dow & the Future
Yes, there were ONLY two possible patterns (instead of countless): (1) the slingshot where you penetrate the previous year’s low and then blast to new highs, or (2) you base until the Gold Benchmarks and then enter the Phase Transition. Either way, new highs were ahead. There was no indication of a crash to some 50% to 90% decline since equities had to become the alternative to banks and bonds. The reduction in supply as companies buy back their shares made this more possible.
The fact that the DAX bottomed with the ECM, and DID penetrate last year’s low and then rallied, shifted the potential toward a Phase Transition next year. The Dow has been bouncing between support and resistance reversals quite nicely.
The reversals will confirm the next move.
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