Is Russia Subject to the Economic Confidence Model
QUESTION: Has the ECM worked to the day in politics outside of the United States as in my home country Russia?
ANSWER: Absolutely. Putin was elected on March 26th, 2000 (2000.23). That is precisely to the day from the collapse of the USSR on August 19th, 1991 (1991.63). This is a UNIVERSAL frequency. It is not some theory on mine. It is something I bumped into and discovered. It is not restricted to financial markets or any nation. Pi is starting to be discovered in other fields even quantum mechanics. We are just scratching the surface when it comes to understanding how everything truly functions.
The start of the Sovereign Debt Crisis in Greece took place to the day on the ECM as did 911 in New York. This is by no means confined to any country.
Naturally,
people will fight against this and they will say it is all coincidence
or bullshit. They offer no proof to the contrary, simply an opinion. No
different than all those who burned people like Bruno for daring to say
the Earth revolved around the Sun rather than everything revolved around
the Earth which had to be flat for you could not stand upside down on a
ball – a round Earth was illogical and there was no solar system.
Burning such people alive at the stake to them was just punishment for
such ideas.There are always going to be doubters who cannot see the world nor do they accept any change to their rigged way of thinking. A closed mind is always the hallmark of ignorance.
The Gold Conspiracy
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; your position is that the metals are not suppress by manipulation. There have been 3 major investigations into silver market manipulation of which each concluded there was no manipulation because COMEX silver was not out of line with the “Silver Fix”. Some say that this was a fake investigation and with the London fixings regarded as rigged then they lose their criteria to argue silver is not manipulated. Would you care to explain?
ANSWER: The test is by no means with the London fix. There are short-term manipulations in and out and they have ALWAYS been on the upside. There is no profit in suppressing the metals. The metals dealers want bull markets the same as stock brokers for then they do a lot more business. Look at the metals promoters. They always say buy – never sell. Most have some interest in the metals business no different than a stock brokers during the Great Depression who advised buy dips and average in.
These conspiracy theories are generated by people who have no historical understanding of market movements and only look at the entire world through the biased eyes of metals. Here is an old chart of the Dow Jones Industrials. You could make the same argument that it was suppressed in some sort of conspiracy until the start of this 51.6 Yer Private Wave in 1985. The Dow rallied to test 1000 four times and crashed back down. Who was the sinister group who conspired to prevent the stock market from exploding then?
I was blamed for creating the Takeover Boom of the 1980s because I advised many of the takeover players. I showed these charts at numerous conferences back then and argued the Dow would move into a Phase Transition rising from 1,000 to 6,000 in just a few years. After 51.6 years of a Public Wave, people believed in government and not the private sector. Bonds and Pensions were the future. Stocks were for speculators. The book value of the Dow fell to its lowest point in 1977.
I argued you could buy a company, sell its assets, and more than double your money. That meant there was NO WAY the market was overpriced. This is simply what happens in ALL markets. It does not take some dark force to prevent markets from rising under some theory of fair value.
You do not need sinister groups to suppress markets. Markets do it all by themselves. When people turn and finally notice a market that is undervalued, it bursts into a Phase Transition. This nonsense that ONLY the metals are suppressed is absurd. It is not true and they are nothing but EXCUSES coming from people who are not unbiased analysts. I am sorry – it is pure bullshit. Oh they will say I am evil, dangerous, or whatever, because they have no concrete proof of anything for what they base their ideas upon are this idea of fair value.
I had tapes on EVERY market manipulation which were seized by the court to protect the banks. There were routine market manipulations of everything, but never some perpetual conspiracy to suppress the metals. Salomon Brothers got caught manipulating the US Treasury auctions in 1991. There was the LIBOR scandal. There was nothing they would not manipulate for a quick buck and move on to the next. There was ZERO profit in suppressing the metals perpetually. The whole argument is generated simply by people who do not understand how markets function.
The Dow was suppressed for 51.6 years by the people whose CONFIDENCE resided with government. That is starting to flip now. We will enter a Phase Transition only when people begin to realize government is in trouble.
This nonsense will turn off more people and harm the metals because people do not want to be associated with goldbugs who now the MAJORITY see as people with tinfoil hats who project silver and gold at $100.000 and ounce yet everything else remains the same. That is just totally nuts. It seems the more they are wrong, the higher the targets become. This is just not rational. Why advise people to buy something that they say is manipulated and cannot rise because of such a conspiracy? It makes no sense.
When we say “buy”, our clients know it is an unbiased forecast without the tinfoil. There are people who enjoy being victims. It is very strange. It is not about making money, It is about punishing others because they themselves do not understand life. No worries. Government, like all lifeforms, eventually die. To survive, you have to understand the game. Better to see reality that live in a dream world waiting for something that takes decades.
Efficient Market Theory vs. Behavioral Economic Theory
QUESTION: Hi,
Thanks for a great blog.
Mr. Armstrong,
I´d like to know your opinion for
efficient market hypothesis. Theory states it is impossible to beat the
market because market efficiency. I know you disagree with that, but is
there any theory which states that markets can´t be efficient?
And what’s your opinion of behavioral finance theory?
Thank you,
Kind Regards,
IP
ANSWER: Efficient
market theory does not work because markets always overshoot and
undershoot. Markets can remain undervalued for decades as was the case
for the Dow Jones between 1934 and 1985. Then they play catch-up all of a
sudden. Commodities also perform in such a manner others claim are
manipulations.
Behavioral economic theory, which many are just now starting to
realize, states that markets trade on anticipation, and not necessarily
on facts — buy the rumor, sell the news. This is all behavior oriented.
We panic not always understanding why, just following the herd.
Investing becomes a herd mentality or behavioral economics.
Personal Questions & THE CLUB
Video Player
00:00
00:00
QUESTION: Dear Martin:
I hope you are well and congratulations for your amazing and educational daily blog.
1. Why you never accepted the business proposals of “The Club”?.
2. Why you said that be a hedge fund manager, would alter your quality of life?.
3. It is so stressful be a successful hedge fund manager, like George Soros or John Paulson?.
I look forward to hearing from you as soon as possible.
Sincerely,
JEMV.
ANSWER: We are all motivated by different things. Trading has been like an ATM for me and I learned long ago that you can make hundreds of millions or billions of dollars, but that is beyond living standards. It is play money at that point. Some people want to be billionaires because it makes them think they are successful by a money standard. My success I measured by a contest against the market forces. Far more challenging.
Rigging markets, manipulating them, or bribing politicians to ensure you make money to me was cheating for what end? Just to be some billionaire to say you are? That made no sense to me and advising many of the richest people in the world showed me that it was not a lifestyle I would ever aspire to for the money then owns you. Plus, those in “The Club” are the most unethical and dishonest people you would ever want to meet. They also own the press who will never write about the truth behind the curtain.
Besides having to count your fingers after shaking hands with those in “The Club” is not the type of business I cared to do. I was famous for throwing out any client that ever tried any nonsense. One Japanese company signed a contract and then the first month tried to cheat on fees. I closed the account and returned all fees even though it was $500 million. My contracts always allowed me to shut down an account if the client tried to nickel and dime me. They were shocked. I was never desperate for business so it was amicable or forget it. My view I took care of clients and it was more of a quasi-partnership.
Even in my court case, the government supported the bank HSBC to put a gag order on me to prevent me from helping the Japanese against the bankers. The law clearly stated that I was obligated to help a victim. But as always, the bankers are ABOVE the law.
If I joined “The Club” and started to buy silver for example during the Silver Buffet Rally, how do I know I would not be their exit? Silver was rising but gold declining. It was an obvious manipulation to all professionals.
Audio Player
00:00
00:00
Phone Call with dealer during that manipulation
As far as being a hedge fund manager who is really in the global league, I did not hire people to manage for me. I actually did the management because some of the best calls are the most difficult to do. Most people will second-guess the computer and won’t do the trade. It takes real experience to pull the trigger.
Your greatest opponent is ALWAYS your own emotions. So if you cannot achieve the confidence to know what the markets are doing even in the most chaotic moment, then you should not be a hedge fund manager.
In the New Yorker article on me, they said I walked into the trading room after covering all my short positions during the Long-Term Capital Management Crisis when “The Club” lost a fortune even with their bribes, and I announced I covered my shorts and said I was going to the beach. Some people took that as arrogant like what do you do after winning the Superbowl. I went long and placed my stops and knew the computer was right and the best thing for me to do was to walk out. It is called discipline. I was one of the few who saw the crash coming selling the high and bought the low. You have to know when to step aside and just do it. Yes that trade won me Hedge Fund Manager of the Year. It takes confidence, conviction, and guts.
It is not that I ever felt stressed. If that was the case then you cannot trade. You have to look through the curtain and see the reality on the other side. If you cannot do that with comprehending reality, you cannot be a hedge fund manager. Many are want-to-be traders for the money. But they do not have what it really takes.
I was on call 24 hours a day. Had teams around the world watching for me. No matter what the time, they called in whatever country I instructed them to watch. The decision was always mine.
There is no getting tired, drunk, or lax. There is NEVER a day off. You must be on point all the time. You have to have incredible endurance. Forget the social life.
To this day, it is hard for me to sleep more than 3 hours without waking up. So from that perspective, it did change my lifestyle. Just always had to be on point no matter what the time and had to know what was going on everywhere all the time. Not stressful, but addicting. I do not know if I could ever just stop. So I may be addicted to work, not drugs, booze, smoking, or even coffee. I have gone a week of so without coffee.
So the lifestyle would be more confining. Less freedom to travel and see everything in the world before they blow it all up. These days I am more interested in preventing the authoritarian world from taking over everything. As an American, I am the property of the government who cannot even have a bank account outside the USA. This is a personal battle now for freedom that I am fighting for my entire family and what do we leave behind. So there is nothing for me as far as making money. The battle now is to preserve even the right to spend what you have.
Nigel Farage in 2013 Against EU Intervention in Mali
There is News & then there is News
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I know people say you are the source many watch. I heard you were posting photos of Russian soldiers in Eastern Ukraine before anyone knew they were there. Then you posted pictures of Frankfurt in flames when there was a blackout by the press reporting the protests against the ECB. Now on November 17th, you said US police rob more assets from people than the criminals. Just four days later, what you report becomes mainstream as well. This is very interesting to watch.
REPLY: We have people reporting on events from around the world who are actually on the ground. Over the years, it has simply become a network where we all contribute. Clients realize that you get also what you put in and many contribute when they see the trend appear in their region which becomes a confirmation of the whole..
No comments:
Post a Comment