Wednesday, November 25, 2015

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S LATEST BLOG POSTS

Year-End Special Report

Year-End 2015-2016
We will be sending out over the next two days ahead of the Berlin Conference the Special Year-end Report covering Currencies, Metals, Energy, Wheat, and major Share Markets with the Year-end Reversals to watch as we head into 2016.
(Note: This is ONLY available for those attending the World Economic Conference)
Currencies included:
A$, C$. British, Japan, China, India, Sweden, Euro, and the Swiss/Dollar as well as Euro/Swiss.

We are Watching the Demise of Politics As We Have Known It

Bush-Trump
The Republican Party tried its best to destroy Donald Trump. Like the French Royalty, they learned nothing and have merely tried to retain power by blocking out the rising storm of the people they consider the Great Unwashed. The Democrats are no better. They have the audacity to push Hillary in our face and ignore that the Clintons cut the chains that bound the bankers and then served them students on a golden platter while denying their right to declare bankruptcy on bankers.
Gensler-Hillary
The Republicans have been unable to crush Trump, yet they still do not get the message nor does the mainstream press. Trump has tapped into the anti-politician sentiment that has been rising and both the Republicans and Democrats will most likely explode like an over inflated balloon. Both are ignore the people; they assume that this is a passing phase and that they can get back to screwing the public as usual.
Party politics is dying because they have sold their soul to the investment bankers and K Street. They attack anyone who dares to hold them to their promises and they wage outright against any organization who dares to object like the Tea Party, Heritage Action for America, Club For Growth, the Madison Project, etc. They have outright blackballed any press or political consultant who works for outsiders and does not preach the party’s mantra.
We are witnessing the end of party politics, and yet they do not understand that they are in the final death throe stage. They assume the people will get over this period and fail to comprehend that a new generation is coming into voting power whom has been severely deprived of their rights, liberties, and pursuit of happiness, thanks to politicians’ incessant greed of selling themselves to the highest bidder at the expense of the people.
Hollande-3
Marine-Le-PenThey use every excuse to grab more and more power. President Hollande of France now wants to amend the Constitution declaring — “France is at war.” Do you permanently change a Constitution for a temporary issue? Hollande announced a review of the Constitution and a legislative and security arsenal to strengthen the fight against the Islamic state and their continued air strikes in Syria. Hollande called on Monday to amend the Constitution to fight potential terrorists at home and for an aggressive effort to “eradicate” the Islamic State abroad. Nearly 300 searches were conducted since Sunday that are not related to the investigation into Friday’s attacks, but concern the radical Islamist movement. However, these measures are designed to also boost his popularity, given that he would have lost had he stood for election before the attacks on Pen.

What Happened to the Debt Ceiling Crisis?

CapitolBldg
QUESTION: 
Thank’s your down to earth’ blog updates which even ‘not economist’ will understand. My question is from US dept ceiling limits. Before this month,November, in the news was quite a lot of from this issue but after ‘D-day’ 03.11 or 05.11. Nothing happened… Or I can’t find anything from the search engine aka corporate media or the alternative news. May I ask you what’s going on? What was the result for the Us dept limit? It makes me wondering why not even alternative news sites asking the same question?
Thanks Martin in advantage for your help.
Kind regards,
MH
ANSWER: That one does seemed to be buried deep. Effectively, Paul Ryan took the oath of office on October 29th after John Boehner said he would resign from Congress on September 25th as perhaps the most disliked speaker in many decades. The very next day, October 30th, Obama was handed with congressional passage of legislation a new debt ceiling that lifted the threat of a default on government debt. This pushed off that risk until after he is gone – 2017.  This essentially relaxed the strict spending caps through September 2017.
The Senate voted 64-35 to approve the measure, and this was Boehner’s parting act. It was Boehner who negotiated the deal over the past few weeks which was timed with Ryan taking office. Boehner was always the compromise king. The White House and congressional leaders carved out a deal. Obama said he would sign the bill into law as soon as he received it.
The two-year budget provision provides now imposes new top-line spending levels for Congress covering the fiscal year that began October 1st, 2015 and the one starting October 1st, 2016. This relaxes the budget caps which allows for an additional $80 billion in spending on military and domestic programs over the two years. That won the Republicans.
The system is broken. These spending ceilings no longer function since they are routinely increased each and every time. So where is the restraint on spending? Clearly, politicians could not manage anything for they never reform, remain within a budget, and when they cannot do their job, they raise taxes and increase the spending limits. Nobody could run a business or your household budget in such a manner.

The World Economy – A Balancing Act Soon to Collapse?

Balancing-Act

COMMENT: Dear Martin,
From reading your blog and other news I can conclude that the low interest rate has failed to increase the private business activities to the level that normally would require an increase in interest rates. The arguments now are to increase interest rates to save pensions funds and to be able to reduce interest rates if we get another financial crises.
To me it look like the system is totally out of balance and have not worked like the normal capitalistic system since 2006.
Regards
Fk
EconomicCartoon
REPLY: Correct. Governments have embraced Marx & Keynes because they argued that government had the RIGHT and the CAPACITY to manipulate society by the economy creating Utopia eliminating the business cycle. They create economic disasters, blame others, and then start wars to get out the mess. It is never our interests at stake – only their’s. The Free Market always wins and this age of Socialism where they decide how to spend your money (usually on themselves), is coming to an abrupt end just as did communism. This balancing act has been a disaster because they assumed they had the power to control something they have no clue about how it even functions. Sorry but Smith and Schumpeter win.
Safety-Net
Ironically, those who lived in communist states are better equipped to survive for they simply expect nothing from government. In Europe and the USA, people stupidly believe government is there with a safety net to help them. They keep moving the age for retirement. They keep raising taxes which proves they are incapable of any fiscal management since to raise taxes means you failed to do what you promised. Indeed, like Will Rogers, one need not joke about government and politicians, all you have to do is state the facts.
History-Repeat

Dig-Own-GraveYet we are the fools who elect people with no experience and expect actually a good job. Look at Hillary. Many will vote for her just because she is a woman – nothing else just as some voted for Obama because he was black. Or a Bush because he had the “name”. We truly deserve what we get when we elect incompetent people that change our future who are corrupt, unethical, and unprincipled. We are too stupid to realize we compel history to repeat and we dig our own graves. We most certainly get what we deserve.

Is Turkey Trying to Distract the World From its Debt Crisis Shooting Down a Russian Plane?

There is something not quite right about this entire incident of Turkey shooting down the Russian fighter jet and then attacking the rescue helicopter. Sorry, but Turkey is way out of line when they KNEW that Russia had no intention of attacking Turkey. A argument that Turkey will defend its borders implies there is a threat to Turkey, not simply a drive-by. There was plainly no reason for Turkey to take such action. They assume they are a NATO member and thus Russia cannot fire back without starting World War III. This is a totally reckless incident and unimaginable conduct of Turkey under these conditions when they clearly knew they were NOT under attack from Russia no less a single fighter jet.
Even if it were true that the Russian jet strayed into Turkish airspace, at best there should have been a scramble of jets to “protect” its airspace without provoking war. This has been standard operational procedures between USA and Russia for years. It is not some coincidence that a Turkish film crew captured the incident. They were most likely tipped off to be at the right place at the right time.
This entire incident raises serious questions if the economic conditions in Turkey, being on the brink of a economic meltdown, did not deliberately try to provoke war to distract the world from its debt crisis. Turkey is being watched for many see it as the FIRST domino to fall in the Emerging Market Debt Crisis. This raises many, many serious questions about the motive behind this entire incident.
What is truly astonishing is that in a letter to the U.N. Security Council, Turkey openly stated that it had shot down the jet while in Turkish air space. It then even admits it also shot a second plane on a rescue mission – the helicopter as if that was some major threat. These actions make it appear that Turkey is praying for war because its government could collapse with its debt.
An armoured police vehicle drives through a barricade on fire during a demonstration in Istanbul
Putin rightfully said “We will never tolerate such crimes like the one committed today.” What Turkey did was unimaginable and the entire incident appears to create a diversion from its pending economic meltdown. There have been major demonstrations against government corruption in Turkey for the past few years.
NATO has called for Turkey and Russia to show restraint, the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “we stand in solidarity with Turkey and support the territorial integrity of our NATO ally”. This is reminiscent of precisely how World War I began because of treaties. Then Obama also said similar confrontations could be avoided if Russia stopped attacking “moderate” Syrian rebels who are battling forces loyal to the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
Obama is way out of line here for the US is totally responsible for ISIS since they funded these people to try to overthrow Assad in Syria. All of this for a pipeline to compete with Russia to get gas from Saudi Arabia to Europe. World leaders are full of shit and pretend this is about a dictator when in fact the overthrow of Syria was precisely what ISIS wanted. This mess lies squarely in the hands of the Obama Administration and then to have the audacity to pretend Turkey had a right to defend its airspace when not being attacked is just too much. These people NEED war to distract everyone from the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is causing the collapse of governments for a system of borrowing year after year with ABSOLUTELY no intention of ever paying any debt off.
The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. That was a viable attack. One plane flying close to the border and claiming it was 1km in your airspace giving you the right to shoot down a Russian plane is pure insanity. The fact that a film crew was there makes this seem to have been a deliberate act to cover up the economic meltdown of Turkey.


Market Talk – November 24th, 2015

Trading Community
The morning session in Asia was rather dull but all recovered in the afternoon into positive territory with the exception being Hang Seng (which was still down -0.3%). Europe drifted into the negative shortly after the open as news was still focused on the nervous Belgium shut-down. All trading was dull and in thin conditions then the news that Turkey had shot down a Russian fighter jet and equity indices were hit as were their currencies. Upon the news both the MICEX (Moscow Exchange) and ISE (Istanbul Exchange) dropped 2% both lost more ground eventually closing -3.5% and -4.5% respectively. The Russian Rouble made all of its losses (2% at one stage) back to close unchanged on the day. The same could not be said for the Turkish Lira which closed down 1% on the day. US Indices opened lower but recovered all of their losses to close with small gains across the board.
Energy was the other main benefactor of the midday news with WTI and Brent both closing up almost 3% on the day. Gold, Silver and Copper all gained on todays news recording gains of between 0.8% and 1.8%.
The Bond markets also gained on the uncertainty with US Treasuries, Bunds and peripheries all closing strong. Interestingly, the curves for all markets were well behaved with even the front-end being pulled along. The 30yr US closed on the 3% level again with 2’s, 5’s and 10’s all gaining 2BP. The longer term trend continues to show the flattening theme for the US curve.
Mr Carney (BoE Governor) said today that he did not know when British interest rates should start to rise and Andy Haldane (BoE Chief Economist) sounded even more extreme when he said he sees more downside risks for growth. GBP Sterling/Cable lost 0.4% today and was last seen at 1.5070

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