Gold – Intraday Nov 16, 2015
COMMENT: Marty, if gold cannot rally now, then a turn to new lows will be devastating. What’s left for them to cling to? China reevaluating gold at $100,000? These people are becoming a joke.
REPLY: Yes, I suppose if gold closes today below 1087.30, it is warning that it is very weak. Only a daily closing now above 1095 has any hope of stabilizing it for now. Even the intraday reversals are at the 1092 and 1082 level on a 15 minute bar.
Notice the Euro has traded lower but the Dow has traded higher. This is how capital reacts. It tries to flee the battlefield and that right now is Europe/Middle East. If gold cannot rally under these conditions, then it will be highly criticized by everyone else. The problem has been the sophistry these people use to sell gold. If people believe that gold is supposed to rally with war and it does not, the goldbugs will lose ALL credibility in the main group of investors.
Gold in the Wake of Paris
Although gold made a knee-jerk reaction rally to 1097, at the time of this writing it has fallen back to 1087. We elected one Weekly Bearish at 1084; from the last high, we generated a few more in the 1079 to 1071 area, followed by 1040 and 1026.
It is between 1026 and a small gap down to 983, followed by 934 and 885. The horizontal lines are the reversals – red for bearish and green for bullish. There are clusters forming above (resistance) and below (support).
Keep in mind that the goldbugs will jump up and down, declaring that war is great for gold, so you should buy gold again. First and foremost, capital flees from the battlefield. The dollar rallied sharply for World War I and World War II. Gold made its low in euros in January of this year, not in July, as was the case for dollars. Everyone trades based upon their currency. The rising dollar is where you will need to focus your attention.
TIME is still the most important factor, so look to the Benchmarks.
“The Forecaster” on Belgian Television
“The Forecaster” has appeared on national TV in Belgium. I would like to thank everyone who sent in emails from that showing. I am glad so many people are becoming exposed to the existence of cycles and corruption. One viewer sent a passage from an 1859 book of Max Havelaar (author: Multatuli).
Bailiff: Mr Judge, there’s the man who killed Barbertje.
Judge: That man should hang. How he do it?
Bailiff: He has cut her into small pieces, and salted her.
Judge: To this he has done very wrong. He must hang.
Lothario: Judge, I did not
kill Barbertje! I have her fed and clothed and cared for. There are
witnesses who will declare that I am a good man and not a murderer.
Judge: Man, thou must hang!
You aggravates your crime by egotism. It does not fit with someone who …
has been accused of something, adhere to one good man.
Lothario: But, Judge, there are witnesses who will confirm it. And I am now accused of murder …
Judge: You must hang! Thou
hast Barbertje piece sliced, salted, and you are pleased with yourself …
three capital delinquencies! Who is the female?
Female: I’m Barbertje.
Lothario: Thank God! Judge thou see that I did not kill her!
Judge: Hm … yes … so! But the salting?
Barbertje: No judge, he does not salted me. He has done much good my contrary. He’s a noble man!
Lothario: You hear it, judge, she says I’m a good man.
Judge: Hm … the third point still exist.
Bailiff, take the man away, he should hang. He is guilty of conceit. (…)
Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions & the Economic Confidence Model
QUESTION: Martin,
Is there any conceptual common nonlinear resonance ground shared between the ECM and the underlying theory explaining LENR?
JAJ
ANSWER: Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR) are indeed very interesting. I have concluded that whatever process we observe in any area of science will be discovered in all layers. What many consider “cold fusion” may not be fusion at all. The Widom-Larsen theory does not require any new physics discovery of laws. Essentially, the Widom-Larsen theory states what is actually taking place is a multistep process. The Plasmon modes in hydrated metals (like surface electrons acting collectively as a herd or mob) are energized in various ways and are then absorbed by protons. This produces a very low energy neutron, which is the reverse of neutron decay, due to the weak nuclear force. Now these low-energy neutrons are absorbed rather easily. Consequently, this creates a cascade effect of unstable isotopes that go into beta decay. During the beta decay phase, gamma ray photons are ejected and collide, hitting the metal Plasmon. At that moment, they are shifted (like a phase transition) into mostly IR (heat) with a soft X-ray tail.
This would explain cold fusion, which is a hypothetical type of nuclear reaction at room temperature. This is the opposite of what takes place in the sun. There is currently no accepted theoretical model that would allow cold fusion to occur.
I can say that the Widom-Larsen theory would appear to follow the structural design of economic changes as well. The majority must be wrong; that becomes the catalyst where the smallest amount of pressure against an overextended market at tops or bottoms creates the reversal in trend and the biggest move of energy. This phase transition creates spike highs and waterfall events of cascade failure that results in major panic lows. Every investigation assumes some huge player has overpowered the market, but no one has ever been discovered since 1907. The source of energy comes from within. The punch can be anything. The system is set up at an extreme, so it can be akin to a herd of zebra –– one zebra sees a lion and begins to run, which causes the other zebras to start running, despite never seeing the lion. This is the release of energy (heat so to speak) from a resting body.
The Closed Mind Discovers Nothing but Bias
A number of people have been writing in to say how they just discovered the mathematical constant π (pi) in a quantum mechanics formula for the energy states of the hydrogen atom. This is truly astonishing proving the is a fundamental cornerstone of nature.
While I discover the existence of pi in the business cycle, it has been widely discovered in many other fields. What this proves is precisely what I have been saying all along — there is an interesting order being masked as chaos. This hidden order is fundamental to everything. This hidden order behind chaos or the appearance of randomness has led many to assume that the world is subject to our will, and therefore, we can manipulate the world, including the economy, to do as we desire. This is just not true. There is a hidden order behind everything if we just explore.
In his book “Arithmetica Infinitorum”, the British mathematician John Wallis defines
π as the product of an infinite string of ratios made up of integers.
There have been many so-called analysts who simply say that I am wrong
and pi has nothing to do with markets. Yet they argue for phi,
Fibonacci, chart patterns, and so on.There is far more order in the structure of the universe and everything within it than meets the eye. We are still exploring and pi is coming up in many fields, which has surprised numerous people. They are no different from the critics who claimed that the world was not round since they could not understand how you would stand upside down without falling off a ball. Hence, the world had to be flat.
The 2016 “Gold” Report
We will issue the 2016 “Gold” report in two parts. We will issue part I for the low and part II for the aftermath and next high.
The 2016 “Gold” report is not available yet. We will make an announcement once the report is available for purchase.
Reforming the Federal Reserve
I sincerely hope you continue your blog. I have been trying to get a handle on how the markets work. It really requires a lot of thought until one can feel comfortable.
There is a ring of truth to what you say.
Thank you.
ANSWER: The Fed is far more independent than it portrays. The Fed’s decision to raise or lower interest rates is not at the direction of the bankers, rather it is an understanding that it must steer a realistic path. Yellen has inherited a nightmare. Rates were lowered and the Fed became trapped. They stopped buying 30-year bonds and moved to mortgage securities. They cannot sell anything it now holds. Yellen realized that the pension funds would belly up, and she keeps saying that the rates must rise to be “normalized”.
Politics have far too much influence over the Fed. We cannot afford a central bank controlled by politicians. The bankers should not control the Fed sine they no longer retain loans on their books and become transactional bankers when they sell their loans.
The only solution is to float the Fed publicly so that anyone can buy shares. The influence of politicians and bankers must come to an end. Banks should NOT be qualified for any bailout on their trading – PERIOD. If they do not retain loans, they are not entitled to use elastic money. Floating the Fed makes it a private corporation that must report its balance sheet like everyone else. Congress MUST be forbidden to order the Fed to do anything. That has been the problem all along. Stimulation should return to buying corporate paper instead of handing the banks cash and hoping that they lend it out. Enough is enough.
Police Pull Over Google Car But No Driver to Ticket
The Google car was pulled over in California for driving too slow. When the police realized that there was no driver, they were stumped since no driver means no ticket. My bet is that they will start fining people who just own cars, regardless of who drives. Interesting problem.
NSA Blames Snowden for Paris Attack
The G20 has now given its blessing to the NSA to do whatever it wants. They are blaming Snowden for the recent terror attacks, but their blame has a huge hole. The G20 entered an agreement to share ALL information on money movement for taxes purposes (as in FATCA). So even if Snowden did not expose the truth, government’s greedy fingers are still into everything.
Congress personally told me that the NSA began surveilling all of their emails nearly two years before Snowden came forward. That means that every journalist in DC also knew. Everyone in the intelligence agencies would have known, and without Snowden, terrorist organizations would have known as well.
This is a giant lie and an excuse for government to do as they like. Ben Franklin’s warning now comes to mind, for you do not burn down the barn to get a single mouse.
Fed vs. Congress vs. Bankers
ANSWER: You have to understand the original intent of the Federal Reserve. It was originally a bailout entity for banks, so the banks had to fund it. That made sense initially, but with time and circumstance, the Fed has morphed into something that is now a quasi-political-governmental agency. No one would have created what we now consider the Fed.
I do not think that the Treasury should own the Fed, because then politicians will control it for political purposes. I can hear it now: “Vote for me and I will give free interest on credit cards!” I do not think in its present form that it should be owned by banks who collect 6%. I would advocate a public float, as is the case in Switzerland.
My point is that the politicians keep changing the Fed, relieving themselves of ALL fiscal responsibility for economic booms and busts. The politicians blame the Fed, which is wrong since they are the primary cause of aggravating the business cycle.
I do not advocate conspiracy theories against the Fed or criticism of the Fed ignoring the role of Congress. To solve the problem, we MUST look at the whole. You need a central bank to clear. Bank failures were because of relationship banking where they borrow short-term and lend long-term. Elastic money made sense if you did not have enough to liquidate loans to repay depositors in a panic. The elastic money would expand during a panic and contrast when over.
Now that banks are doing transactional banking and not holding long-term loans on their books, they no longer need elastic money or bailouts and should collapse when they screw up. The banks should be held for CRIMINAL prosecution if they are trading with other people’s money. You cannot have it both ways. If the Fed is to stimulate, then they should buy corporate paper, not government, and the money should be injected directly into the economy. Currently, the banks still refuse to lend money long-term.
The Fed is caught between politicians and bankers. That is not a very nice place to be these days. We will have to REFORM this position after the crash, but eliminating the Fed will create chaos and will not solve the problem as long as Congress has the power to create debt
Dr. Leo P. Kadanoff, Who Explored Phase Transitions, Died at 78
Dr. Leo P. Kadanoff, the physicist who explored phase transitions where matter transforms from one state to another, died at 78. His work brilliantly demonstrates that the transformation is not a linear progression, but a final burst of energy to complete the process.
The Siege of Paris
“ISIS is not Islam” is the message coming from the Muslin community. Terrorism cannot possibly have any religion for God has proclaimed “thou shalt not kill” in all religions. An attack of this nature will only justify outright war against ISIS, which may have been their intention in a twisted way to unite Muslims. However, this is having the opposite effect.
My condolences to our French readers.
Ancient International Tourism
ANSWER: Augustus (27 BC-14 AD) wiped the Mediterranean clean of pirates, making international travel possible for more than just trade. The roads and highways were safe for travel, and a viable hotel (inn) industry emerged along with tour guides. People have always been fascinated by the ancient world’s wonders. Romans were tourists exploring Italy, Greece, Asia Minor (now Turkey), and Egypt. This is most likely the earliest international tourist industry. Local tourism existed even before the Romans.
It Is Time to Knock off the Bullshit About Surveillance for Terrorism
The worldwide collection of phone calls, emails, and text messages is all about taxes – NOT terrorism. Despite this power, these surveillance methods have failed to prevent even one terrorist act. There was the case of the Boston Bombers, two kids using cell phones, who they failed to catch. Then there was the case when two guys dressed up as women and attacked the NSA itself. They didn’t know about that. Then Charlie Hebdo, that too was a surprise. Now we have an all-out assault on civilians in Paris carried out by three suicide squads, and again, they were clueless. This surveillance does not work because they are only monitoring the people for taxes. Otherwise, they would not be storing everything forever.
Let’s get honest here. The only other intelligence agency to collect evidence on everyone was the notorious Stasi of East Germany. When the wall came down, the extent of the secret police operations targeted against their own people was mind-blowing. What surfaced was their “smelling jars” collection. Yes, the Stasi used odor recognition to keep tabs on anyone they suspected. The Stasi often collected the samples covertly by breaking into homes to stealing a suspects’ used underwear. They then kept them in jars in case they turned up missing to hunt them down.
A friend grew up behind the wall. When it fell, his father obtained the Stasi file on him, just as the NSA now builds files on everyone. In that file, he read that all his friends were reporting him to the Stasi. He no longer retains any friends for his trust in humanity was destroyed.
Come 2017, the G20 will being sharing information on everyone purely for taxes. Any credit, account, or transaction will be reported to your home country. This is all about TAXES, not about truly stopping terrorism. On that score, they have a near perfect record of failure because collecting everything means that there is no possible way to ascertain that a terrorist attack will take place tomorrow. The terrorists can freely use their cell phones because collecting every phone call becomes impossible to sift through in a timely manner.
They will use this incident for even more power. Nonetheless, because everyone now knows that governments collect everything, terrorists would obviously use other forms of messages. Genghis Khan tattooed messages on the heads of messengers and their hair would cover the message up. The Romans established a network of signal towers where messages were rapidly sent over hundreds of miles from one tower to the next.
One of the oldest methods of communication is the pigeon post. As a method of communication, it dates back to the ancient Persians who trained birds. The Mughals of central Asia who occupied a large part of India on through into Afghanistan, used pigeons as messengers. Julius Caesar adopted pigeons as messengers from the Persians during his conquest of Gaul (France). The Greeks also used pigeons to convey the names of the victors at the Olympic games to their various cities.
The Romans also employed a Pony Express where relays would carry messages as well as communications between private people. Letters between wives of high-ranking soldiers have survived, confirming communications were taking place. Indeed, one could actually get a letter from England to Rome in ten days or less. Low ranking soldiers were not allowed to marry and were not allowed to have connections locally. This provided two functions. First, the obvious need to transfer soldiers without complications, but more importantly, no local ties ensured that soldiers would not hesitate to move against citizens in the case of a revolt.
The British, Scottish, and Irish all constructed coastal signal towers like the Romans to warn of the threat of a Napoleonic invasion. Napoleon was a brilliant strategist who created the semaphore telegraph or optical telegraph. The Napoleonic semaphore signal system conveyed information by means of visual signals. It laid the groundwork for our modern communications. Napoleon constructed towers with pivoting shutters. Information was encoded by the position of the mechanical elements.
Perhaps the most famous use of pigeon was the advance news of the British victory at Waterloo of June 19, 1815, used by the Rothschilds. It is true that they too used pigeons, but there is no conclusive evidence that pigeon messengers were the method of communication that gave them a warning two days in advance.
Now that everyone knows that the NSA and every other intelligence agency are collecting everything, those really engaged in terrorism will never use such means. There are many ways around this and training birds began in Persia (Iran). Let’s knock off the bullshit and stop the Stasi tactic of building files on everyone. If they focus solely on the targets to protect society, we just might stop something like this from happening.
Who Owns the Fed?
The Federal Reserve is not owned by foreign banks, the Queen of England, the Rothschilds, or whomever. The shareholders are American banks. However, the Fed does pay 6% dividends to the private banks that own the shares. The Political Research Associates is a far more reliable source than the people who use bogus books with an agenda.
We could transfer the shareholding to the Treasury, but that would only tempt the Executive who would raise or lower rates for political purposes. We could float the Fed and make their shares public on the NYSE, which would require full disclosure. That is one possible solution.
It is true that foreign share holders bought into Alexander Hamilton’s first bank, but that was not the Federal Reserve. They were investing in an emerging market. This also culminated in the first American banking crisis and bailout – Panic of 1791.
Right now, a 6% fixed dividend is a great investment. It is way out of line with negative rates today.
Here is a list of the top shareholders in the New York Federal Reserve:
- Chase Manhatten Bank
- Citibank
- Morgan Guaranty Trust Company
- Fleet Bank
- Bankers Trust
- Bank of New York
- Marine Midland Bank, and
- Summit Bank
Siege of Paris Is the Same Group as the Charlie Hebdo Attack
A review of the entire refugee crisis in Europe is underway with many forming the opinion that this has been an invasion. The likelihood of this attack actually escalating the war in the Middle East is extremely high. There is an external influence, no doubt. One of the hostages reported that a terrorist said, “It’s the fault of Hollande, it’s the fault of your president, he should not have intervened in Syria.”
However, the cyclical pattern suggests that this is a terrorist group acting internally in France. Perhaps they do get orders from outside, or they may be acting on their own within France. What is clear is that there is an internal element within France that is making the decision with regard to timing.
Between the Charlie Hebdo attack on January 7, 2015 (2015.019), and this current siege of Paris on November 13, 2015 (2015.868), there was 309.9 days or 36 intervals of 8.6 days. This implies that it was a decision made by the same source. There may be people who have infiltrated Europe who are using the refugee migration as a cover given the sheer number of terrorists involved. Still, the decision appears to be the same source as the Hebdo event.
| 911 | 2001.696 | ||||
| Madrid | 2004.192 | ||||
| Hebdo | 2015.019 | ||||
| Paris | 2015.868 | 11.6767 | 0.84923 | 309.969 | 4261.995 |
| 36.0429 | 495.5809 | ||||
| 14.1726 | 5172.999 | ||||
| 601.5115 |
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