Seating for the Berlin Conference Will Be Closing Soon
We have been informed by the hotel that they cannot provide any more space. Those interested in Berlin should book it now. Seating will be closed shortly.
Market Talk — August 28, 2015
Everyone is feeling good about themselves as the rebound in stocks continues. It is fair to say that all markets closed between 2–3% higher on the day. After solid gains in Asia, Europe opened on a firmer note and the U.S. followed. We did have a wobble mid-afternoon trade, but the final 90 minutes recouped the intraday drought and made new ground.
The rally in oil (over 10% TWI) was encouraging on the back of the better than expected Q2 GDP (3.7%) against expectations of 3.5%. The spread TWI/Brent closed on the day $4.70. Gold drifted in Thursday trade, but is finding some support in Asia this Friday morning on rumors of renewed Chinese interest. Word on the street is that a small piece of Chinese reserves has moved out of U.S. bonds as they sell into the rally.
U.S. bond market held its ground on Thursday after the long end sell-off on Wednesday. Talk that the Fed may hold off raising rates until 2016 caused curve flatteners to unwind, as it is expensive to run them that long. However, given the revision we saw yesterday, the market may start to reprice an earlier move! The spread TY/RX (U.S. Treasury/German bund) lost a little ground given all the talk surrounding China’s liquidation and the Fed in play and was seen opening this morning at +145BP.
The U.S. dollar saw solid gains against euro, Sterling, and yen yesterday, taking the DXY (U.S. dollar Index) to 95.68. Emerging market currencies are gaining on the back of renewed growth figures seeing strong performances globally; the Russian rouble has also gained, given additional support from the oil price.
Sorry, We Cannot Hold a Third WEC
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Is there any way to expand the Princeton WEC? It is obvious that you are the real deal. I can see why they said you manipulate the world for nobody can believe what you and your computer have achieved. You said the May high should hold and a correction into August should unfold and then called for the crash into Monday. Then you said that low will hold and there would be a three day bounce. You choreographed the markets amazingly. The press trys to ignore you. One would think with your track record and even being named hedge fund manager of the year, the business news would be pounding down your door. The reason they do not is because you are so real exposing you would expose how bad they are. The ultimate paradox. Your views per month are well over 3 million to this site alone. Nobody can even compare to your accomplishments which is why they made a movie about you. I hope you would consider expanding the WEC or holding a second one here.
Truly amazing
ED
ANSWER: Thank you. Perhaps you are correct in your observation. It is an interesting perspective. Sorry, we cannot expand the Princeton WEC simply because the venue does not offer a larger accommodation. However, we have been able to expand Berlin. Please consider attending the conference in Germany. It might be good to simply expand your horizons. Unfortunately, I will not have the time to hold a third conference. These events really take a lot of effort and are not promotional things where we try to pitch something to sell you to get money to trade. This is a real analytical conference — no BS.
Answering Questions on Gold
QUESTION: Marty, it appears you are correct once again in gold that this rally would not reverse the trend. The gold promoters have been all over the place claiming gold has bottomed and the stock market and the world will go to zero because of fiat. Is there a number we should be watching below since we cannot reach the 1187 number on the upside?
ANSWER: Yes. A daily closing back below 1108 will warn that high is in place. A closing tomorrow below 1180 will be bearish. We need a monthly closing ABOVE 1287 to suggest that this is actually breaking out and changing the trend. That does NOTappear to be likely until the general public loses confidence in government. It is coming. This is what Trump is all about. ONLY when that unfolds will gold reverse for it is the hedge against government, not inflation, fiat, or any other nonsense. These people ruin the lives of investors; they talk a lot, yet do not offer a single example from history to support anything that they pretend will happen. I heard on the radio people trying to sell“black gold” (oil) as something that you will make 30% a year on. Just amazing.
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