Say Goodbye to the Euro by 2016?
Politicians never get enough and never tell the truth. Perhaps they are right and can fool the people in general. Expect this move soon in your country. They are pretending they need to grab every phone call, text, and email, for terrorism when in fact they are hunting money. So what do you do when about 10% of the European population do not have bank accounts? You force them to open one. (see Die Welt)
Claiming they are no just simplifying terminology, every EU member state has to implement a EU directive before the beginning of 2016 which “entitles” every citizen to have a so called “basic” bank account. Therefore, that 10% of the European population without any bank account who prevent moving to a cashless society not must have a bank account by the end of the year for it is now some new right of a modern society when in fact it is their way of raising taxes to ensure they get everything they ever dreamed of. This has to now be extended to Include this entitlement for all homeless and of course the asylum-seekers.
Say goodbye to all freedom. Embrace 1984 – it was just a little late. Maybe this is why we need someone like Donald Trump. Anyone who is not part of this awful crowd of career politicians out to destroy all freedom by their greed. This may be the ultimate reason when the Europeans turn and run back to the dollar.
Who Becomes the Next Buyer?
QUESTION: A false move? I don’t follow..
If as you say the European money that’s been buying US stocks is now heading back to Europe, who will be the new buyers of US stocks?
If as you say the European money that’s been buying US stocks is now heading back to Europe, who will be the new buyers of US stocks?
ANSWER: A False Move is an event that must shake the tree and get everyone out of their longs and many then short. It is typically 2 to 3 months in duration. We can see we did NOT get the Phase Transition for 2015.75. Yes we more than doubled from the 2009 low. But that still did not satisfy a Phase Transition. The minimum would have required 23000 by now with the medium target being 30000 and the extreme 40000. You can see here the doubling effect between the last False Move and the 1929 high. Gold rose from $100 in 1976 to $400 by December 1979 and then it doubled in a Phase Transition to $875 by January 21, 1980 in just 8.6 weeks – very short time span. The crawling along our first target at 18500 illustrated this was not the right time for thePhase Transition and this suggested a postponement until 2017 for 2015.75 first had to complete the bubble in bonds (government). This dove-tails nicely with the rise in third party activity for the 2016 election. Keep in mind this can be a break with a split in the Republicans or a successful internal revolution against the corrupt country-club Republicans like Boehner.
Shaking the tree right now does NOT suggest that the Europeans are gone forever. They are just pulling back now impacting the Euro moving counter-trend to most other currencies. The Dow will rise with interest rates and that will attract foreign capital with a rising dollar. For the flip side when we reverse, they will be back but this time we should start to see domestic retail join in as the new buyers. Initially, the rally should begin with short-covering. We simply need to build the forces for a Phase Transition. That requires the bulk of people to call for a crash so they keep trying to sell the rally after this False Move and that helps to fuel the rally contrary to all logic of market pundits.
Phase Transition for the Dow
The first possible target in time coming out of the 2009 low was 2015.75 for the Dow to reach a Phase Transition and then a crash and burn. We stated in 2011 that the market was off to new highs and even Barrons covered that forecast more as a curiosity. We have constantly warned that the Phase Transition was not yet confirmed.
Indeed, the Phase Transition clearly shifted back in 2014 and appeared as we have been warning to be postponed into 2017. The three price targets were 18500. 23000, and the 30000-40000 extreme target. At the beginning of 2015, we warned it did notappear to be likely that the market would exceed 18500 on the Dow and it looked like it would crawl along resistance forming a high in May. So far that has been the pattern.
Now the question which confronts us is how long of a contraction do we see. Such aFalse Move must take place with a minimum of 2 month to 3 months which suggests an August low. If we see lower lows intraday or September closes lower than August with a new intraday low in the Dow (not NASDAQ), then we may have a different pattern ahead. Nonetheless, if this pattern with an August low holds, then we may be off to thePhase Transition coming out of the hole. This would be confirmed by electing Monthly Bullish generated from an August low.
In terms of price, we should be aware of this pattern development by exceeding 18500. The next hurdle will be 23000. Exceeding that level and we are now into the Phase Transition with the target in the 30000-40000 level with a really disastrous outcome. This would most likely be coupled with gold as all tangible assets rise driven by the shift from public to private.
This is the pattern and the requirements to see that unfold. It is not a forecast and should not be seen as a promotional forecast like gold promoters. If you do not understand this type of analysis, you are not ready for the professional level so go back to your normal viewing channels. This blog is obviously not for you. You belong in the guru follower circuit.
Venezuela’s Hyperinflation
The hyperinflation that is being focused on in the press of late in VENEZUELA illustrates the real causes behind such events – the total collapse in the confidence of government. It is not a question of money supply for that puts the cart before the horse, As confidence collapses, people trust the government less and turn to using the currency of neighboring countries. This was the outcome on the hyperinflation that hist Germany following World War I and other Eastern European countries as well as Zimbabwe. As the confidence collapses, that is what causes the government to issue more and more money. Those who survived such events rely upon tangible assets and the currency of neighboring economics.
This is why the dollar is rising right now, It is not that the entire world is moving into hyperinflation, it is that the confidence in Emerging Markets and Europe is declining. As that unfolds, there ONLY game in town to park money becomes the US dollar.
There is ZERO change of the USA moving into hyperinflation for that to unfold other countries would need to be strong and Americans would the resort to the currencies of other countries. We are headed into a Sovereign Debt Crisis where effectively this is a reboot of the entire system – the control-alt-delete keys are being pushed.
Osborne Destroying British Real Estate Market
One reason someone like Donald Trump is so popular is because he is not a brain-dead politician with some practical market sense no matter how much the establishment press keep trying to sink his ship so we all suffer the pains or no change ever. In Britain, George Osborne’s “shock tax”, as it is being called, is starting to sink in. In the process, hundreds of thousands of landlords and their accountants waking up to the insanity of what Osborne really did with his taxes. Osborne’s tax is typical of someone who is so detached from the economy, you have to wonder why such people think they can rule the world?
Effectively, any higher-rate taxpayer who owns property in London known as thebuy‑to‑let properties (rentals) on which there is a large mortgage, will now pay substantially more tax. Furthermore, even basic-rate taxpayers who let out property (rent) will be pushed into a higher-rate tax bracket.
Essentially, Osborne has created a ONE-WAY-MARKET of sellers, with nobody in their right mind as a willing buyer unless you are actually looking for a home. Prices in London will tumble so the next 4 years of the downside in the ECM is warning that real estate is not looking too good for it is an immovable asset that can be taxes by desperate politicians. Look-out below.
The economy is always sent into a tailspin because we have professional politicians withZERO experience outside of government. This is what 2016 is all about whether it is from the outside Third Party, or an internal REVOLUTION inside parties as we are watching right now in the US Republicans.Politicians have been playing with our lives for so long, they just do not get it. The press only supports the establishment so this is the vortex we are headed into. What comes out the other side is going to be really interesting.
The British will be headed into a referendum on staying in the EU. With refugees pouring into Europe, EU seeking to create a national army, constantly raising taxes, and a desire to outlaw short-selling in Europe, which will only ensure there will never be a bid during a panic, if the Brits do not vote to get the hell out of the EU, then they deserve to go down with the French. Osborne’s budget is a total disgrace. In such dire times, where is the common sense? Creating a one-way seller’s market in buy-to-let property only means housing values collapse in Britain because of the lack of a bid that will appear in the months ahead.
Hillary’s Criminal Activity Ends Her Career?
Hillary’s “trust” rating nationally is at best 37%. Nobody with half a brain trusts her. But what the press is not reporting is rather stark. The FBI is controlled by the White House. There is absolutely no possible way the FBI would be investigating Hillary during a run for the Presidency as a Democrat when there is a Democratic White House.
Hillary clearly sold influence with foreign governments for donations to her charity. Then she rents beach mansions paying over $100,000 for 2 weeks illustrating she speaks of the poor and lives at the high end of the spectrum. She is about as real as Santa Claus.
The Democrats see they will not win with Hillary. There is no love-loss between the Clintons and Obama. So the FBI is probing because they need to prepare the way for her nosedive. Obama supports Biden, not Hillary. Therein lies the interesting aspect for 2016. It looks like revolution inside both parties. Will some third party emerge from the defections of each? Perhaps. It may also be just outright internal war inside each party that the Press is not reporting so far.
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