Economists Say Trump is Wrong
Yahoo reported that economists deny Trump’s ability to bring jobs back to America from China and other countries. Well, the economists are wrong. All it would take is a repeal of the income tax. Nearly half of the cost of labor is taxation. If you want to create jobs, cut the income taxes. That does not mean merely corporate, as that would not reverse the trend alone. You need to eliminate payroll taxes and personal income taxes.
The repeal of the income tax should also apply to states, and all taxation should be restricted to what the Founding Fathers concluded — indirect taxation only. That means consumption taxes EXCLUSIVELY. Then it also does not matter who is here, as illegal aliens would pay the same as citizens. Income taxes only apply to citizens or those with green cards.
This is Elfreth’s Alley in Philadelphia, established in 1702 this is the oldest continuously inhabited residential street in America. Notice there are two aspects driven by property taxes. First, row homes developed because there was a tax on windows. Secondly, the phrase “taking a step up in life” refers to the number of steps you had to enter your home, as homeowners were taxed per step.
We do not own our homes; you cannot retire, even after paying off your mortgage, since you still have to pay property taxes. If you do not pay your property taxes, they take your house and throw you out on the street. Property taxes are the most UNDEMOCRATIC tax we have and are a remnant of a totalitarian state. Today, government workers demand funding for their pensions through exploitation of the people.
Government should privatize to eliminate pensions. We have to face the fact: politicians will never efficiently manage anything; they are hopeless. Government departments should privatize simply for real management, and then we would not have this crisis of unfunded pensions that are bankrupting the states. No state is capable of simple fiscal management because they are not competitive. Instead, they abuse their power of taxation to fill in gaps of mismanagement. Taxes clearly alter our lives and it is never for the better at the end of the day.
The Next Two Months
The next two months going into September will be both interesting and critical. The NASDAQ Composite made new highs in July, but the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrials failed to exceed May highs. The general consensus is that there will be a rate hike in September and another in December, so if we back-off from this point we may see the share market react in anticipation to the downside. This would help send cash running into the short-term government paper, making that final peak in price (low in interest rates). Thereafter, we may see the ultimate confusion as stocks rise with rising interest rates, as they did between 1927 and 1929.
Our Energy Models are turning negative on the NASDAQ weekly level. This indeed warns that we should be careful at this time. Keep in mind that this is going to be a very difficult period, for this is when we will see how worthless opinion becomes. What we are facing is something that has not emerged for nearly 300 years, so there is nobody alive who can offer an expert opinion. At this point, we will need the dispassionate analysis of Socrates to survive what is on the horizon.
Here is a sample mid-term overview report for the Indian rupee written entirely by Socrates without trading recommendations, stops, or institutional portfolio or hedging strategies. We are preparing for launch in September.
US Dollar v Indian Rupee Spot
Systemically, my broader-term observation recognizes that the current bullish trend in US Dollar v Indian Rupee Spot reflects the overall posture since 1973 which remains intact. So far, we have had a minor pull back unfold from the key high of 2013 which has held rather nicely. This market has elected 4 Monthly Bullish Reversals suggesting that this is very bullish near term and new highs are still possible in the dollar. A closing for year-end above 63.04 will also keep the bullish posture for now. Penetrating the previous major high of 68.8 will warn of a possible rally into 2016.
Broadly speaking, a month-end closing BELOW 58.27 is where the critical support lies. Only a monthly closing BELOW this level will confirm a long-term bear market is in motion. Otherwise, here lies important dynamic support within this market and holding this level is a clear line of demarcation in long-term trend. An annual closing back above 60.27 will warn that we may be off to new highs. Nevertheless, we have held last year’s low of 58.27. Only a year end closing below 58.27 will warn of a further decline ahead perhaps into 2016.
Clearly, the US Dollar v Indian Rupee Spot is in a bullish trend for now.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL
There are 56 days until the next ECM target, which is Wed. Sep. 30, 2015. A high forming on this precise target will warn of a correction. However, a low would imply a rally thereafter.
There are 56 days until the next ECM target, which is Wed. Sep. 30, 2015. A high forming on this precise target will warn of a correction. However, a low would imply a rally thereafter.
WEEKLY OUTLOOK
Turning to the weekly level, a weekly closing ABOVE 64.3 will warn of a continued rally ahead. We need a weekly closing back below 63.4 to suggest a retest of support is likely near-term. The Major Weekly Bearish Reversal to watch remains at 55.5. If this is penetrated on a weekly closing basis, then a correction becomes possible.
Turning to the weekly level, a weekly closing ABOVE 64.3 will warn of a continued rally ahead. We need a weekly closing back below 63.4 to suggest a retest of support is likely near-term. The Major Weekly Bearish Reversal to watch remains at 55.5. If this is penetrated on a weekly closing basis, then a correction becomes possible.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Our extreme projected resistance for this month stands at 71.7. This is our normal resistance projection. Exceeding this level on a monthly closing basis would indicate we are probably entering a Phase Transition. Our Phase Transition Target resistance stands at 108.93.
MONTHLY TIMING ANALYSIS
Our primary targets on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are Jul. 2015, Sep. 2015, Nov. 2015, Feb. 2016 and May. 2016
Our most critical model, the Directional Change Model targets are Sep. 2015, Dec. 2015, Feb. 2016 and Apr. 2016. This model often picks the high or low, but also a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level.
Looking at the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during Oct. 2015, Nov. 2015, Feb. 2016, Mar. 2016 and Apr. 2016
However, our Panic Cycle targets where we may see either an outside reversal or a sharp move in one direction are Sep. 2015, Oct. 2015, Nov. 2015 and Jan. 2016
POTENTIAL BIG MOVES
We do see trading gaps in our Reversals offering warnings of some potential sharp moves between them if the first Reversal is elected and you abruptly move to the next. Pay close attention to the gaps between 34.1 to 31.6, 28.3 to 26.3 and 14.9 to 13.5 beneath the market.
French Elite Say Either Germany Leaves the Euro or Economic Chaos is their Fate
The French elite are now calling for a German exit from the euro as a solution since the rest of them are heading into Marxist la-la land. The Greek crisis has set in motion severe strains within the EU economy, far worse than the press or the politicians are willing to admit. The French elites see only two possibilities: there will either be an orderly withdrawal of Germany from the euro, or an all-out sovereign debt crisis. It is clear that France is heading into the same eye of the storm as Greece. There is no solution to this nightmare for nobody is willing to even contemplate that they are possibly wrong.
We are heading into a Sovereign Debt Crisis of great magnitude. We will need Socrates desperately, for at this point, there is no one left with an opinion that will matter when we have not faced such a situation since the 18th century.
Would Bill Be a Sexy First Lady?
Our computer says that Bill Clinton will not get to dress up for White House Parties — what a shame. He would have been one of the sexier/flirtier First Ladies we’ve had in a long time. The election cycle for 2016 seems to be another forecast that the computer has been spot-on about. We will see a rise in voter turnout and a rise in anti-establishment feelings toward government. This trend has been appearing in Europe, such as generational war in Scotland and other places. Trump is receiving the vast majority of youth support and is drawing in people who have never voted before. When the economy turns down, this trend will increase. The establishment doesn’t get it. This cycle will be more than they ever thought possible in many different ways.
Brain Chip Implants
Researchers at the University of California, Berkeley (UCB) are developing computer chips to implant in the human brain for the purpose of data collection. President Obama began the BRAIN Initiative (Brain Research through Advancing Innovative Neurotechnologies) in 2013 to begin developing these intrusive devices. They claim the chip will be so small that people will not even notice it. Well, the future is knocking on the door. Should we make these implants mandatory for politicians? Perhaps if they are controlled by a computer it will end corruption — just a thought.
Nonetheless, research in this area is now fully underway. President Obama said:
“Last year [2013], I launched the BRAIN Initiative to help unlock the mysteries of the brain, to improve our treatment of conditions like Alzheimer’s and autism and to deepen our understanding of how we think, learn and remember. I’m pleased to announce new steps that my Administration is taking to support this critical research, and I’m heartened to see so many private, philanthropic, and academic institutions joining this effort.”
The BRAIN Initiative Industry is real and alive. This is not science fiction; this is a new industry of neural interface technology, components, and systems for neuroscience and clinical applications. Where this all leads is anyone’s guess. The memorandum of understanding between the National Institutes of Health Department of Health & Human Services and private companies explains the intended government purpose.
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