OPINIONS v Quantitative Modeling
QUESTION: Dear Martin,
Do you expect all markets to align with the 2015.75 turning point (or the few months following, due to false moves)?
Would, in this case, such an alignment correspond with high/low reversals in trend, and all markets would then align to the ECM into 2020?
Thanks in advance
SB
ANSWER: The next three months will be interesting. The numbers are the numbers. That is where the trend will be revealed. I can offer my OPINION, such as if the May high holds then a decline is likely. However, that is just what I say – an opinion and not a forecast. We have the targets in time and we have the reversals for price. We need to elect the points provided to fulfill a forecast. Whatever I think might happen is just opinion. It is difficult at best to fit all the pieces together for any human being.
We will be launching the extended Beta version next week. As that moves forward, we are turning to the INQUIRY to allow you to ask questions on a limited basis. We hope to have this for the full launch by the end of the summer. Additionally, we are also working on the interface to allow you to ask questions on a correlation. For example, what markets are correlating with silver right now. Socrates will scan the entire world providing stocks, indexes, commodities, whatever and answer that question.
There will always be jerks who are incapable or understanding how the world functions. They will always try to recast whatever we do into some right or wrong and try to judge what we are doing based upon the opinions of others. They are generally the lower level people on the mental food chain who cannot see how the world is connected. Using a tool that allows one to see such connections and eliminate OPINION is just too much for them to truly understand. We need those types of people to trade against for they are the fuel that makes the markets move opposite of their expectations. They are the same type of people who prevented progress refusing to believe the world was round for how could someone possibly stand upside-down on a ball without falling off. Just absurd!
Creating a tool that allows you to see the connections is the key to our economic evolution. Therein lies all answers for it reveals that politicians cannot create something that is against the trend exactly as we see the stupidity of the Troika and leaders of Germany and France who just do not understand their own limitations and futility. Like the jerk who constantly tries to equal everything to opinion analysis, politicians will rule the world trying to create things that cannot economically withstand the trend of the whole.
I cannot emphasize how difficult this project has been. Porting Socrates to the Web has been a tremendous undertaking. At the same time ensuring that only the results are uploaded, not the actual program, we have had to be mindful of security to prevent any attack to grab it and run. The only security capable of withstanding cyber attacks is to keep Socrates offline and fully encrypted from a proprietary algorithm so nobody can offer a back door to someone else.
We are porting asset allocation, portfolio construction, portfolio alerts advising on turning point and reversals, big movers where the biggest trades will be, and more. This is all possible with a quantitative model – not OPINION. Once you understand how the models function using fractal structures in time and price, then you can trade any market in the world,
Socrates will trade any market and show you where it stands at that moment and allow you to back-test in hypothetical trading. This can be adjusted from aggressive to hedging based upon your objectives. On this level, it is flexible according to your risk profile.
We are nearly there. Thank you for your patience. We provided a partial demonstration at the Solution Conference. We will be revealing a lot more at the upcoming World Economic Conferences in Princeton & Berlin.
Nigel Farage Calls The Euro a Failed Dictatorship
Nigel Farage is one of the few politicians who has any clue about economics and real capital flows because he came from the commodity sector not a law school. I cannot endorse what he says more. It is time for Greece to just default on Europe for all these bailouts have been to protect the bankers, not the people of Europe and certainly not the Greeks. It is time to leave.
DAX A View Into the Heart of Europe
In the DAX cash, we did elect two Weekly Bearish Reversals from the high of the week of April 6th. The next key area of support lies down at the 938000 level. Next week is a Directional Change so we could see a bounce back into the week of July 20th. The critical support begin at the 921900 level and a Monthly closing beneath this are is necessary to signal a continued decline. We need to see a weekly closing back above 1145300 to signal a retest of the April highs is underway.
Here too, we also see October as the key target ahead for an important turning point.
The Dow & the May High
So far so good. The May high held for June and we achieved the lower monthly closing. Where things will be choppy ahead for the remainder of the summer, hopefully we decline into October leaving the May high intact. This would set the stage for a better recovery ahead. Our monthly Energy Models peaked January 2014 and have been slowly moving lower. This is why we warned there would be no breakout in 1015 before May which was the first key target in time.
Technically we are in a vulnerable position since the top of the Breakout Channel rests at 1756400 for July. The key support lies at 1706500 and a monthly closing beneath this area will signal a more sharp correction ahead. We have elected a Minor Weekly Bearish reversal and the next lies at 1751000. So a Weekly closing beneath that will open the door to a test of the 1706800 level. Overhead, we need a weekly closing above 1788800 to imply a rest test of the former May high.
Shanghai’s Panic Sell Off
The first window of opportunity for the temp low in the Shanghai will be tomorrow, the 9th. We have target support at 3615000 and key support at the Weekly Bearish Reversal at 3195880 followed by the Monthly Bearish at 3049110.
The week of July 6th was also a target in Shanghai. Therefore, we have a shot at a temporary low this week with a reaction back to the upside. Keep in mind that this overall trend has been only a 23 month reaction from the June 2013 low and that came on target producing the highest monthly closing for our May target 2015. June was an outside reversal to the downside producing the intraday high, but this penetrated the May low and closed lower. This was the signal that a decline was in motion. So now we just see a knee-jerk reaction to the upside, but this will be followed by new lows.
The Dow & the May High
So far so good. The May high held for June and we achieved the lower monthly closing. Where things will be choppy ahead for the remainder of the summer, hopefully we decline into October leaving the May high intact. This would set the stage for a better recovery ahead. Our monthly Energy Models peaked January 2014 and have been slowly moving lower. This is why we warned there would be no breakout in 1015 before May which was the first key target in time.
Technically we are in a vulnerable position since the top of the Breakout Channel rests at 1756400 for July. The key support lies at 1706500 and a monthly closing beneath this area will signal a more sharp correction ahead. We have elected a Minor Weekly Bearish reversal and the next lies at 1751000. So a Weekly closing beneath that will open the door to a test of the 1706800 level. Overhead, we need a weekly closing above 1788800 to imply a rest test of the former May high.
Shanghai’s Panic Sell Off
The first window of opportunity for the temp low in the Shanghai will be tomorrow, the 9th. We have target support at 3615000 and key support at the Weekly Bearish Reversal at 3195880 followed by the Monthly Bearish at 3049110.
The week of July 6th was also a target in Shanghai. Therefore, we have a shot at a temporary low this week with a reaction back to the upside. Keep in mind that this overall trend has been only a 23 month reaction from the June 2013 low and that came on target producing the highest monthly closing for our May target 2015. June was an outside reversal to the downside producing the intraday high, but this penetrated the May low and closed lower. This was the signal that a decline was in motion. So now we just see a knee-jerk reaction to the upside, but this will be followed by new lows.
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