Fed’s Internal Forecast into 2020 Leak
COMMENT #1: Marty, I can see why the government said you manipulate the world. The countless people who plagiarize whatever you and your computer forecast is unbelievable. There are people claiming the world will end on October 1st to others trying to pretend they have the same model giving the date as October 7th. Then there are the people claiming now to have invented the cycle of war model with the same targets. You say gold will fall below $1,000 and within days Goldman Sachs amazingly says the same thing. You say we will need to replace the dollar as the reserve currency and the IMF schedules hearings in September to introduce the SDR as the dollar replacement. But all this pales in comparison to the recent leak in the Federal Reserve internal forecast. They have adopted your forecasts for rising interest rates and lower economic growth into 2020. Then there is the central bank of China who admitted they use what you invented – Capital Flow Analysis. The more I become familiar with your work and style, the more I can see just how much everyone follows your lead without ever giving you credit. Obviously they wanted your model and bury you alive taking the Holy Grail for themselves.
My forecast is that when this this crashes and burns, they will be pleading with you to fix the world. These clowns can follow what you write and claim it is their’s, but they lack any comprehension of how to do it for real. That is very clear since they only follow you, never lead. Anyone who copies you without credit is just a dishonest person who I would never trust.
You do an amazing job. I understand why they made a movie about you as the Forecaster. You are proving to the world there is a different way.
Congratulations on your accomplishment. Plagiarism is the greatest form of flattery.
BH
COMMENT #2:
Sir, Perusing some of the sites this morning, I saw this and laughed at your models “accuracy”. I very much appreciate your sharing your thoughts and forecasts on the future. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-staff-forecasts-that-the-fed-accidentally-leaked-2015-07-24?dist=afterbell
See you at the movies.
DHK
REPLY: Yes creating a computer that monitors the world taught me rather than the other way around. But that lesson would never have been recognized had it not been for our international client base and me running around the world all the time seeing everything through different perspectives. You cannot come up with such models without observing the world.
At the same time, I have been tormented by people always trying to get their hands on the model for they are greedy little bastards who think they will become the next trillionaire if they just get the code. They fail to realize others would kill them in a heartbeat. They need me to run the model but someone else they do not. Anyone who tries to steal the model has to be suicidal or just plain stupid.
My efforts have been the whole purpose of trying to port this project to the Web and to go public so our clients can inherit the model and it remains available for the world. If we simply monitored the capital flows and go with it, then we stand a chance of graduating to the next level in the evolutionary process instead like a broken record where the needle cannot advance to the next groove. This would mean altering politics dramatically and in so doing, then we can reduce the risk of war.
This is something I discovered rather than my theory. I honestly do not see how anyone could come up with such a theory first and then try to prove such a thing in a few months or years. This was my discovery and it has been a lifetime of observing how everything functions to grasp a better understanding. You cannot come up with this blueprint of the world sitting in an office. I had to observe as did Adam Smith to grasp that knowledge. It will not appear out of thin air.
We have the most loyal client base of anyone ever because they have been sharing that same journey. This is something bigger than all of us put together that encroaches upon that lofty unknown we refer to as the meaning of life. There is something out there we instinctively know – we just cannot reach it with all the bias and prejudices that stand in the way.
The Repeal of the Fairness Doctrine Has Been Our Demise
In a 1958 speech to the Radio and Television News Directors Association, veteran CBS journalist Edward R. Murrow told a room full of TV executives, “We are currently wealthy, fat, comfortable and complacent.” Murrow produced a series of reports that helped lead to the censure of Senator Joseph McCarthy and his trumped up witch hunt for communists, when it was revealed that he was just making accusations without evidence. Murrow was one of journalism’s greatest figures, noting his honesty and integrity in delivering the news; we have lost so much ever since that standard. Murrow used his position to take on powerful politicians and defend the American people, a free press as envisioned by Thomas Jefferson. He also exposed issues such as segregation and warned that the new TV medium was being used to “distract, delude, amuse and insulate” the public.
The FCC repealed the Fairness Doctrine, which has been rather disastrous. TheFairness Doctrine required that TV and radio stations holding FCC-issued broadcast licenses to (a) devote some of their programming to controversial issues of public importance; and (b) allow the airing of opposing views on those issues. This meant that programs on politics were required to include opposing opinions on the topic under discussion. Broadcasters had an active duty to determine the spectrum of views on a given issue and include those people best suited to represent those views in their programming. That meant you had to relay both sides of an issue. Today, mainstream media no longer has to be fair. They can propagate all the propaganda and tell only what the government demands. Hence, nothing that is real is fit for the news if it goes against corporate management or government demands. We are plagued with Terrorism as the excuse to eliminate all privacy as the excuse to raise taxes. This paranoia is not even as honest as McCarthyism which it at least was about Communists. Today, we are subjected to Obamaism but nobody will defend the people against exaggerated terrorism.
Did Greenspan Invent BASIC Programming?
QUESTION: Did Alan Greenspan invent Basic Programming language and write programs for Arthur Burns to control the world financial system? This seems to be the latest conspiracy theory running around. Is there really any truth to Greenspan being a programmer?
Thanks
KD
ANSWER: Sorry no. Greenspan was not a programmer and did not design the programs to control the world economy for Arthur Burns to prolong the floating exchange rate system. That is just absurd. Bretton Woods collapsed because they fixed the price of gold and not the quantity of dollars. The collapse of Bretton Woods was not a plot of bankers, it was not any different from creating the Euro – a completely unsound foundation. Such things of fixed echange rates or trying to create the Euro out of thin-air is always comical to put it nicely. Such schemes are always designed by a mob of lawyers who are clueless and believe they can control and force the world to do as they command. NO PEG has ever lasted and all will collapse. PEGS that float within a range last longer than those which areFIXED. But at the end of the day, they all go the same way – just down.
As far as the claim that Greenspan wrote a program whose mission it was to prevent the return to a gold standard – well that is even more insane without a stitch of truth. Bretton Woods collapsed as a negotiating ploy because the Europeans were demanding gold for the flood of dollars. Nixon closed the gold window because there was no choice. He intended to renegotiate trade deals he linked to returning to the gold standard at some new price fix. Then Watergate took place, OPEC, and economic chaos. With these two events alone, any return to a gold standard died. By the end of the decade, the world did not collapse as the people demonstrated that money had not changed – it was paper dollars as it had been since 1934.
Moreover, with the introduction of widely accepted plastic bank credit cards, the first step to money becoming plastic and electronic, was set in motion. The first general-purpose credit card was born in 1966, when the Bank of America established the BankAmerica Service Corporation that franchised the BankAmericard brand, which later came to be known as Visa issued by banks nationwide as opposed to merchant credit cards for a single retail store. Interestingly enough, 1966 was the first major panic in the US share market and collectible markets as inflation was undermining Bretton Woods. The first crack took place in 1964 as that was the last year of silver coinage and then 1968 was the birth of the two-tier gold standard whereas among nations they retained the fixed rate but gold was allowed to trade openly in London.
What the gold bugs have to realize, there is no way there will be a return to a gold standard. That idea NEVER worked at any time throughout history and people confuse the fact that gold was simply used as a medium of common exchange between nations with some form of exclusive money. Gold never formed the primary circulating coins for a domestic economy since they were too high in denomination to serve as every day money even in ancient times. There are numerous accounts in the Bible that all refer to payment by weighing out silver – not gold.
“I bought the field which was at Anathoth from Hanamel my uncle’s son, and I weighed out the silver for him, seventeen shekels of silver.
Jeremiah 32:9
John Kemeny
The closest thing to Alan Greenspan inventing BASIC programming language was the fact that he attended school at the same time one of his many classmates was there who did invent BASIC – John Kemeny (1926 –1992) who was a mathematician, computer scientist, and educator who became head of Dartmouth. Kemeny is best known for co-developing the BASIC programming language in 1964 along with Thomas E. Kurtz – not Greenspan. Programming back then was in machine language. We wrote code actually addressing “registers” in a computer which were a series of effective magnets – the origin of the term bit meaning 8 magnets..
In order to invent the BASIC language you had to know the structural design of a computer. My schooling was first and foremost engineering. Programming was not real extensive for it could not be done without an engineering background. There is absolutely no possible way Alan Greenspan invented the BASIClanguage. He lacked the background to even attempt such a task.
Kemeny and Kurtz created BASIC which was a language that enabled others without the engineering background to write a program. Greenspan could not have invented BASIC for it would have required years of study to invent a language which would then be “compiled” (translated) into machine language. All computer program languages today are compiled to run and that is translating them back into machine language that the computer actually uses.
While I would write in BASIC as time moved on as well as FORTRAN, COBOL, PROLOG and C computer languages, I would then have to optimize the translated machine language when processing speed was most critical. That of course is not done today as machine speeds have dramatically increased. Here is anASSEMBLER routine (machine language) converting an integer date to a day of the week. Without a background in engineering, nobody could write or invent a new language for someone to use in programming without comprehending how that language is then translated back into machine code. It is just absurd.
The vast majority of “programmers” today do not understand ASSEMBLER and could never code it such a manner nor would it be practical. They need the translation process of a high level language such as C#, BASIC, or whatever. Greenspan neither wrote programs to manipulate the world economy for Arthur Burns nor did he invent the BASIC programming language.
Assembler Code converts an integer date to a day of the week
;syntax – WeekDay = Num2Day%(Days%)
;where Days% is an integer date in the professional format, and
;WeekDay receives a weekday value between 1 and 7
;
;Note: 01/01/1980 = 0 = Monday
;WeekDay receives a weekday value between 1 and 7
;
;Note: 01/01/1980 = 0 = Monday
.Model Medium
.Code
HProc Num2Day, Days:Ptr
.Code
HProc Num2Day, Days:Ptr
Mov SI,Days ;get the address for Days%
Mov AX,[SI] ;put Days% into AX
Dec AX ;adjust for the turnover point is
Mov AX,[SI] ;put Days% into AX
Dec AX ;adjust for the turnover point is
Or AX,AX ;is it a negative value?
Js Signed ;yes, skip ahead
Add AX,2 ;add this fudge
Js Signed ;yes, skip ahead
Add AX,2 ;add this fudge
Signed:
Xor DX,DX ;we need to use DX:AX to avoid a “divide by zero”
Mov CX,7
Div CX ;the MOD part ends up in DX
Mov AX,DX ;put it in AX
Inc AX ;adjust 0-6 to 1-7
HRet ;return leaving the function output in AX
Xor DX,DX ;we need to use DX:AX to avoid a “divide by zero”
Mov CX,7
Div CX ;the MOD part ends up in DX
Mov AX,DX ;put it in AX
Inc AX ;adjust 0-6 to 1-7
HRet ;return leaving the function output in AX
HEndp
End
End
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