Gold – It Ain’t Over Until the Fat Lady Sings
The problem with gold has been the Gold Promoters who have made up sophistry to sell their product convincing so many people to lose everything they invest. While the hate mail has started again claiming I am “bashing the gold bugs” as if this were a sport for no reason, it sadly illustrates that some people will always go down with the ship because they are married to a concept and are unwilling to see the world for what it truly might be – complex and dynamic which defies their idea of what is money.
The Associated Press says: Investors are running out of reasons to own gold. The AP is a wholesale news agency so their story runs around the world in numerous newspapers. The AP summed it rather well:
The dollar has rallied in recent months, diminishing the allure of holding gold. The U.S. economy has been on firmer footing, and tumult in China’s markets and Greece’s debt crisis have failed to restore the metal’s appeal as a haven from global turmoil.
It is a shame they some just cannot see that gold had to decline and the dollar had to rise because of the fundamental unsound structure of the Euro and that this is just one piece of the puzzle as to how the world economy shifts from the West as it dies under the theories of Marxist socialism and moves to Asia for 2032. This is also deflation caused
- (1) by rising debt within government which propels higher taxation resulting in lower economic growth and government’s hunt for taxes is destroying theLIQUIDITY and global free-flow of capital.
- (2) the technology age of creative destruction is manifesting within the internet age whereas we are displacing the old with the new that requires less manual labor.
So as politicians try to force minimum wages higher, companies turn to robots and it becomes a deflationary spiral. Robots replace manual labor eliminating pensions and healthcare costs which have become the largest part of many business costs. Starbucks spends more on healthcare costs than on coffee to resell. This is all part of DEFLATION measured not simply in prices, but is the decline of disposable income since prices will rise with cost-push inflation rather than demand-inflationthat marks a boom. Far too many people remain ignorant of how things work and cannot see beyond a single dimension which has a single definition.
Yet others have written realizing that just perhaps there might be something to this concept that everything is connected, which indeed forms much of the core of Asian philosophy.
“First, your insights and comprehensive knowledge have turned a light on for me with respect to how the world works. Thank you. I especially resonate with your fundamental given: that everything is connected, dependent on everything else. Yours is the first practical application of this fundamental insight of the mystics — especially the Eastern masters — that nothing and no one has an existence independent of everything and everyone else. The Vietnamese Buddhist teacher, Thich Nhat Hanh, coined a term for this: Interbeing. If only the would-be rulers of the world could understand this. Instead, they pursue their doomed dreams of the supremacy of Me and Mine over everything and everyone else, and so we all suffer — temporarily. Everything always changes…
Now a practical question: You mentioned benchmarks that you expect gold to reach on its trip down, but you haven’t mentioned what they are. I suspect that this information is contained in one of the special gold reports you have listed in your Store. Is this correct? …
I had planned to just move to a beach and wait for the world to meltdown. Long-term clients urged me to please stay. So the compromise has been this monumental effort to port Socrates to the internet and to create an entity that will survive me – my contribution to society what I leave behind. So to do that requires staff and they need income, which is understandable. They need to make a living and are not in a position to just retire and call it quits as I am. So there has to be some revenue for them and for me to exit knowing they will continue without me with Socrates calling the shots. Additionally, those clients who have supported this effort have paid for such info and their position is that it should not be just given out to the world for free. They are entitled to that exclusivity for others will just try to pretend it is their research and use it to lure people in to sell them something that typically blows-up anyway.
Yes, the Benchmarks are the targets for it is ALWAYS not just PRICE but it must also be TIME. These two objectives must be reached and they are in that report. So do we have the low yet? No. To create the low, the MAJORITY must turn bearish. Their target forecasts will be in the $600-$700 level. The key Weekly Bearish Reversals are 1084 and 1075 followed by 1042 and 1026. So we have four Weekly Bearish Reversals providing support before the break of of $1,000.
Even those who use Fibonacci retracements were looking at 1282, 885, and 243. All the fundamental sophistry of the Gold Promoters has amounted to propaganda if not outright fraud since typically they have have a business selling gold or are deeply invested in it and cannot see beyond their personal investment. Some are also more likely than not of the payroll of someone else to put out bogus analysis to trade against. They did that in the Dot.COM bubble as well.
I we hold 1084 for the weekly closing, then we can see a 2 week bounce and everyone will proclaim the low so hurry up and buy more. If we close below these numbers, then we can see a 2 week panic to the downside and a test of the 1980 high now. If that unfolds, then the latter target may be further down. So we play it by the numbers.
There is still a risk that the SECOND BENCHMARK will be the final low rather than the first. That would fit best on the yearly model and it appears that what comes after October 1st is going to be anything BUT normal. OPINION will not matter much for we are entering a period where only the computer will be able to cope with the future. Nobody alive has gone through what we are embarking upon – soOPINION won;t mean much.
The problem for gold in the future is the hunt for taxes may in fact eliminate it as a viable means to transporting wealth as it once provided over the centuries. You cannot legally store in a safe deposit vault, hop on a plane with it, or go buy a cup of coffee at Starbucks. The hunt for money may seriously impact gold as a medium of exchange except in a very black market reducing it to the modern day drug business.
The problem with gold has been the Gold Promoters who have made up sophistry to sell their product convincing so many people to lose everything they invest. While the hate mail has started again claiming I am “bashing the gold bugs” as if this were a sport for no reason, it sadly illustrates that some people will always go down with the ship because they are married to a concept and are unwilling to see the world for what it truly might be – complex and dynamic which defies their idea of what is money.
The Associated Press says: Investors are running out of reasons to own gold. The AP is a wholesale news agency so their story runs around the world in numerous newspapers. The AP summed it rather well:
The dollar has rallied in recent months, diminishing the allure of holding gold. The U.S. economy has been on firmer footing, and tumult in China’s markets and Greece’s debt crisis have failed to restore the metal’s appeal as a haven from global turmoil.
It is a shame they some just cannot see that gold had to decline and the dollar had to rise because of the fundamental unsound structure of the Euro and that this is just one piece of the puzzle as to how the world economy shifts from the West as it dies under the theories of Marxist socialism and moves to Asia for 2032. This is also deflation caused
- (1) by rising debt within government which propels higher taxation resulting in lower economic growth and government’s hunt for taxes is destroying theLIQUIDITY and global free-flow of capital.
- (2) the technology age of creative destruction is manifesting within the internet age whereas we are displacing the old with the new that requires less manual labor.
So as politicians try to force minimum wages higher, companies turn to robots and it becomes a deflationary spiral. Robots replace manual labor eliminating pensions and healthcare costs which have become the largest part of many business costs. Starbucks spends more on healthcare costs than on coffee to resell. This is all part of DEFLATION measured not simply in prices, but is the decline of disposable income since prices will rise with cost-push inflation rather than demand-inflationthat marks a boom. Far too many people remain ignorant of how things work and cannot see beyond a single dimension which has a single definition.
Yet others have written realizing that just perhaps there might be something to this concept that everything is connected, which indeed forms much of the core of Asian philosophy.
“First, your insights and comprehensive knowledge have turned a light on for me with respect to how the world works. Thank you. I especially resonate with your fundamental given: that everything is connected, dependent on everything else. Yours is the first practical application of this fundamental insight of the mystics — especially the Eastern masters — that nothing and no one has an existence independent of everything and everyone else. The Vietnamese Buddhist teacher, Thich Nhat Hanh, coined a term for this: Interbeing. If only the would-be rulers of the world could understand this. Instead, they pursue their doomed dreams of the supremacy of Me and Mine over everything and everyone else, and so we all suffer — temporarily. Everything always changes…
Now a practical question: You mentioned benchmarks that you expect gold to reach on its trip down, but you haven’t mentioned what they are. I suspect that this information is contained in one of the special gold reports you have listed in your Store. Is this correct? …
I had planned to just move to a beach and wait for the world to meltdown. Long-term clients urged me to please stay. So the compromise has been this monumental effort to port Socrates to the internet and to create an entity that will survive me – my contribution to society what I leave behind. So to do that requires staff and they need income, which is understandable. They need to make a living and are not in a position to just retire and call it quits as I am. So there has to be some revenue for them and for me to exit knowing they will continue without me with Socrates calling the shots. Additionally, those clients who have supported this effort have paid for such info and their position is that it should not be just given out to the world for free. They are entitled to that exclusivity for others will just try to pretend it is their research and use it to lure people in to sell them something that typically blows-up anyway.
Yes, the Benchmarks are the targets for it is ALWAYS not just PRICE but it must also be TIME. These two objectives must be reached and they are in that report. So do we have the low yet? No. To create the low, the MAJORITY must turn bearish. Their target forecasts will be in the $600-$700 level. The key Weekly Bearish Reversals are 1084 and 1075 followed by 1042 and 1026. So we have four Weekly Bearish Reversals providing support before the break of of $1,000.
Even those who use Fibonacci retracements were looking at 1282, 885, and 243. All the fundamental sophistry of the Gold Promoters has amounted to propaganda if not outright fraud since typically they have have a business selling gold or are deeply invested in it and cannot see beyond their personal investment. Some are also more likely than not of the payroll of someone else to put out bogus analysis to trade against. They did that in the Dot.COM bubble as well.
I we hold 1084 for the weekly closing, then we can see a 2 week bounce and everyone will proclaim the low so hurry up and buy more. If we close below these numbers, then we can see a 2 week panic to the downside and a test of the 1980 high now. If that unfolds, then the latter target may be further down. So we play it by the numbers.
There is still a risk that the SECOND BENCHMARK will be the final low rather than the first. That would fit best on the yearly model and it appears that what comes after October 1st is going to be anything BUT normal. OPINION will not matter much for we are entering a period where only the computer will be able to cope with the future. Nobody alive has gone through what we are embarking upon – soOPINION won;t mean much.
The problem for gold in the future is the hunt for taxes may in fact eliminate it as a viable means to transporting wealth as it once provided over the centuries. You cannot legally store in a safe deposit vault, hop on a plane with it, or go buy a cup of coffee at Starbucks. The hunt for money may seriously impact gold as a medium of exchange except in a very black market reducing it to the modern day drug business.
Closing Floor Trading Will Add to Liquidity Crisis
The CME has closed floor trading, which I contend will add to the crisis inLIQUIDITY. It is true that the argument has been that the floor traders amount to only a small percentage of the actual trading volume. However, they provide liquidity when there are gaps in electronic trading. In the process, many contracts have been eliminated and/or replaced with mini-contracts for retail. There are no more Dow futures contracts. The closure of so many contracts reflects the real crisis we have in LIQUIDITY.
The CME has closed floor trading, which I contend will add to the crisis inLIQUIDITY. It is true that the argument has been that the floor traders amount to only a small percentage of the actual trading volume. However, they provide liquidity when there are gaps in electronic trading. In the process, many contracts have been eliminated and/or replaced with mini-contracts for retail. There are no more Dow futures contracts. The closure of so many contracts reflects the real crisis we have in LIQUIDITY.
Carry Trade & Capital Flows
QUESTION:
Hi Martin, Could you please explain whether your Computer model integrates the Carry trade into its Algorithms, and what influence the Carry trade will have (if Any) in the 2015.75 Sovereign Debt Crisis. Thank You
R R. H
ANSWER: Of course. The carry trade typically impacts capital flows. However, this will also distort trade figures. It appeared that China was doing well because traditional current account flows are not understood. The Chinese, who have accounts in Hong Kong, were borrowing dollars at low rates and investing in China at higher rates. This led many to think that China was still booming when it was really the carry trade between Hong Kong and Shanghai.
The Fed will raise rates and we will see the capital flows pointing into the USA for a flight to quality and the carry trade from euro to dollars. We will also see those who borrowed dollars to save money in the Third World forced to buyback their dollar shorts.
QUESTION:
Hi Martin, Could you please explain whether your Computer model integrates the Carry trade into its Algorithms, and what influence the Carry trade will have (if Any) in the 2015.75 Sovereign Debt Crisis. Thank You
R R. H
ANSWER: Of course. The carry trade typically impacts capital flows. However, this will also distort trade figures. It appeared that China was doing well because traditional current account flows are not understood. The Chinese, who have accounts in Hong Kong, were borrowing dollars at low rates and investing in China at higher rates. This led many to think that China was still booming when it was really the carry trade between Hong Kong and Shanghai.
The Fed will raise rates and we will see the capital flows pointing into the USA for a flight to quality and the carry trade from euro to dollars. We will also see those who borrowed dollars to save money in the Third World forced to buyback their dollar shorts.
Sea Ice in Arctic Sea Expanded by 33% As Earth Turns Colder
The BBC has reported that the sheer volume of Arctic sea ice increased significantly by about 33% after an unusually cool summer unfolded in 2013. Researchers confirm that the same pattern of sea ice expansion has taken place in 2014. The BBC reports that the scientists involved believe changes in summer temperatures have a greater impact on ice than previously thought. This is part of the long-term cycle. It is going to get colder in the years ahead and there will be more volatility. Those who continue to believe in global warming do so because that is what they want to believe. You cannot accept cycles in everything else, including markets, but deny that they exist in nature.
The BBC has reported that the sheer volume of Arctic sea ice increased significantly by about 33% after an unusually cool summer unfolded in 2013. Researchers confirm that the same pattern of sea ice expansion has taken place in 2014. The BBC reports that the scientists involved believe changes in summer temperatures have a greater impact on ice than previously thought. This is part of the long-term cycle. It is going to get colder in the years ahead and there will be more volatility. Those who continue to believe in global warming do so because that is what they want to believe. You cannot accept cycles in everything else, including markets, but deny that they exist in nature.
No comments:
Post a Comment