Market Talk
Greece was not the main headline today, to no surprise. Obviously, it’s still all over the media, but the markets had the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) to contend with instead. Not such a shocker at 223k (rate 5.3%) but the revisions (down 60k, putting April 187 and May 254) were mildly interesting. Also, a point to note was that the participation rate was 62.6% (lowest since Oct. 1977).
Bond markets globally performed, assuming the Fed will delay the delay, but the TY/RX spread capped in by 6bp (currently trading around 151bp).
European fixed-income lagged all day as Primary Dealers prepared for mid-morning issuance. Most were easily digested (even as markets traded lower) but the OATs looked a little unsure at the tail, especially as they ended up giving Eur 7.995bn of the expected 7-8bn range.
Asian equity markets were again talking of Shanghai, as by mid-session they were down over 6% but closed off their lows -3.5%. Nikkei up 1% HS small positive.
There was the trade between the black and the yellow gold today, as oil put in an impressive 1.3% gain whilst gold continues to drift lower. See earlier blog post (Greek Crisis Fails to Stimulate Gold).
How to Teach Your Kids About Gov’t & Taxes
Troika – the Great Destroyer
The idea of creating one unified European government to prevent European wars has grown out of a lesson learned from the disaster of World War II and German Nazi dictatorship. The Nazi movement wanted to rule Europe in part as retribution for the oppression of the German people following World War I, with the harsh reparation payments that even Keynes objected. This extraction of wealth opened the door for Adolf Hitler to come to power on the heels of oppressing the German people for the mistakes of their political leaders. Today, Greece faces the same fate.
The Troika wrongly believes that if they compromise with a left-wing government in Greece, they will encourage such a movement to rise in Portugal and Spain, no less Italy and France. Yet the whole idea of a new European Union with a single currency was indeed the same goal maintained by both Hitler and Napoleon. Political leaders in Europe adopted this idea of one government to eliminate war at the Treaty of Rome to create peace, further democracy, social welfare, economic development, and environmental sustainability. Europe should stand for these common values, but not at the price of economic totalitarianism.
You cannot achieve peace by means of oppression. It was often a common practice to kill the family of one’s political opponent for the offspring might rise to avenge their father’s murder. Oppressing the people of Greece, in the manner that we ground the Germans into the dirt, will lead to civil unrest that will further civil war by rigging the referendum.
Now, the Troika is afraid to compromise and places all the blame entirely upon Greece. The Troika truly despises the new government in Greece for they fear any conciliation will result in encouraging more left-wing political governments who stand-up against austerity in other member states. The Troika has the same goal as Obama did in Russia – oppress the people to force them to overthrow their government. This policy only made Putin stronger. The Troika runs the same risk in Greece by refusing to compromise on anything with the Greek government. The Troika’s plan to overthrow the Greek government may haunt them in the years ahead and spark other nations to rise up as well. This policy of you can check-in, but you can never leave will be exposed for its totalitarian nature and the death of any real democratic foundation in Europe.
There is simply no resolution to the Euro Crisis with the Troika in charge; what info we are getting from behind the curtain shows a dangerous attitude akin to “we do not negotiate with terrorists.” The Troika feels yielding to any opposition will lead to the demise of their euro dream. This economic design of a single currency, leaving nations with their debts intact, is just unsupportable. We are going to see a very serious crack in the political system of Europe over the next four years.
Upcoming Movie Screening with Q&A Afterwards in Southern New Jersey
We would like to present our American audience with an opportunity to view “The Forecaster” in Cherry Hill, New Jersey. There will be a debut in the next few weeks with a Q&A afterwards for our clients at normal theater ticket prices (around $15). Please note that we do not have a set date as of yet. Once we have more information available, we will post it on the blog. This will be a one time special event. To gauge an accurate headcount for theater size, we request that anyone seriously interested in attending please contactTheForecasterScreening@gmail.com. In the e-mail subject line, please include the number of people wishing to attend.
Thank you,
The Armstrong Team
Troika Maneuvering to Rig Greek Referendum
In a TV interview, Mr. Varoufakis said very clearly, “This is a very dark moment for Europe. They have closed our banks for the sole purpose of blackmailing what? Getting a ‘Yes’ vote on a non-sustainable solution that would be bad for Europe.”
I must admit, most politicians do not come even close to the truth, but Varoufakis seems to be the ONLY finance minister who understands the demands of the Troika are not plausible for any nation. Merkel has tried to skirt any responsibility by saying this is a Troika decision. One must seriously ask, are those in the Troika just totally brain-dead? Their blackmail and economic war against Greece will be evidence to ensure that Britain leaves the EU. The ONLY thing that saved Britain was Maggie Thatcher’s effort to keep Britain out of the euro for she knew far too well where it would lead. The view in Poland is also now anti-euro. Any Brit who now does not vote to get out of the EU and the grips of the Troika is ignorant of world events and the political power play going on.
The EU leaders will not travel to Athens until after the referendum. Suddenly they realize that their powers are so off the wall that they dare not expose their own schemes. Hollande of France wants a resolution for he fears a Frexit is gaining momentum. Obama wants a resolution, fearing Greece will be forced into the arms of Russia, breaking down NATO.
Yet through all of this, there is no hope because those in power are clueless. The Troika refuses to solve the euro crisis because they only see their own self-interest and assume they can force their will upon all the people. The Troika is doing everything in their power to rig the Greek referendum to make it appear that the Greek people want Brussels. The Troika deliberately closed the banks to punish the people of Greece, and to show them what exiting the euro means. This appears to be their only way of diverting the crisis with orchestrating a fake “YES” vote to economic suicide. The Troika will attempt to rig the referendum as they did with the Scottish elections. So expect biased vote counting in favor of a “YES” vote to stay in the euro. As Stalin said, “Those who vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything.”
Greek Crisis Fails to Stimulate Gold
Despite the greatest political crisis in Europe, there has been “no love for gold” according to CNBC. Indeed, this crisis does in fact warn that all the theories about gold just might be wrong and are remnants of a 60+ generation who remembers Bretton Woods. Has time and circumstance changed so much that gold is becoming obsolete?
CNBC reported, “There is no reason for gold to get any love now because this is a political crisis, not a currency crisis. The primary reason you buy the ‘barbarous relic’ that is gold is fear of a global currency crisis.” They further report that Greeks have a currency (the euro) “but using it is next to impossible with the banks closed.”
This is an interesting view, but it may be incorrect. Gold has never been a hedge against inflation. When gold is “money” it declines with inflation, which is precisely the opposite of what the gold promoters claim. Look at gold during the 19th century and you will see that it crashed in purchasing power (declined with inflation) with every new discovery, even when it was money.
CNBC does raise a point that I have been making concerning coins rather than bars:
Nonetheless, the restricted use of euros is far superior than gold. Just imagine walking into a Greek merchant with a bar of gold and trying to purchase something! Seriously, if you have some gold coins lying around for just such a bunker-busting moment — would a merchant accept those? If, by some miracle the merchant agreed to accept your gold coins, either you or the merchant would need a highly accurate scale to measure the gold flakes necessary just to buy something small like a pack of gum. If they didn’t, you’d have to hunt around for another merchant who accepted gold and sold scales. (CNBC, “Greece is in Crisis — why no love for gold?”)
So what is going on? Gold is a hedge against government, not inflation, and it depends entirely upon the political crisis. The hoarding of euros is now taking place due to a fear of the new currency, but not one where the euro collapses for the average non-financial Greek citizen. This represents the bulk of the problem for gold. It is nothing close to the safe harbor portrayed by the gold promoters.
As we move into the final low for gold, we are shaking that tree very hard. The BULK of people will laugh at gold during the final stages, and will view anyone who says “Buy!” as a nut-job. Gold must fall out of favor to make the decline real insofar as establishing the final low. This is how markets move and it takes place in everything, no matter what.
The gold promoters continue to paint a future with a collapse in the dollar, so buy gold. Yet is the future they paint even plausible? A realistic review of gold and the past must be addressed in order to comprehend the future. Has the role for gold changed? If China or Texas issued a gold-backed currency, what would be different from European austerity? We are beginning the production of our world reports for 2016 to answer these questions and a lot more: Gold 2016 and Beyond.
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