Gold & the Languishing Continues
The purpose of the Reversal System is to provide confirmation of a trend. In gold, the potential for a pop into June required a weekly closing above 1239. We wrote on May 15, “A weekly closing above 1239 should confirm the pop to the upside. The key resistance technically stands at 1309 area.” We failed to close above that level settling at just 1225, but the next week the pop could not exceed that price level even intraday, stopping at 1232. Nevertheless, gold does not appear to be doing anything abnormal remaining within the downward channel.
Therefore, the immediate trading range is confined by Weekly Reversals with the Bullish at 1239 and the first Bearish at 1183, with the more important number at 1168.
The machinations in Europe, and at first the rally in the euro, adversely impacted gold from the European perspective, helping to prevent gold from rising above 1239.
Still, June and July are nearby targets. There does not appear to be any serious change in trend before October /November. So we should expect choppiness for the summer.
My personal observation in Spain was that retail bullion coins were no longer sold in the banks or stores, which contrasted with what I observed in Italy. We also see problems in selling gold in France. Governments are targeting gold as a means to get money out of the banks, and they are doing their best to make it quasi-illegal by intimidation. Gold can be the underground means of conducting transactions if governments move to eliminate currency by moving electronic. That is when they could make it illegal to conduct such transactions as grounds for confiscation.
Tax Rebellion in Denmark?
In Fredensborg, Denmark, ten official cars from the Tax Administration Office were set on fire and destroyed overnight in a protest. Police received notification Wednesday night at 3:09 a.m. that the Tax Administration offices on Kratvej were on fire. So far, there are no suspects. The police will undoubtedly hunt for someone retaliating against the Tax Man.
On February 18, 2010, a man in a dispute with the IRS for seizing his home flew his plane in a suicide mission directly into the IRS building in Austin, Texas. His battle against the Tax Man made him a hero to many.
As the economy turns down and governments become far more aggressive to grab money from everyone, we should see a sharp rise in these types of incidents. This is part of the rising trend in civil unrest. This is all insane since money is no longer tangible; taxes are also no longer necessary. We should seriously address the fact that money is not what it used to be. We have moved forward in technology, science, medicine, and every field except economics. France is high on the list for a major tax revolution as nearly 50% of GDP is consumed by annual tax collections. That is totally insane. And they wonder why the rich flee and unemployment rises? This is the 21st century, not the 17th. Money has changed and taxes are no longer necessary, yet they create it anyway. That is like me giving you a $100 bonus and then charging you $50 to receive it.
What’s the point? They spend more than they collect anyway.
The Crash of the Bunds – Long v Short
COMMENTS:
(1) Marty, are there any key downside support levels we should be paying attention to here? That call from your computer model warning us to look out below several months ago, all while the Euro Bunds were continuing to rise and setting new lows for yields, is absolutely remarkable!
(2) When you said sell the bunds and buy the treasury, the spread was 180. It now broke 150. You computer seems to really watch everything everywhere. Best Regards, and Many Continued Thanks!
Great trade
KP
REPLY: Yes, this is all about tracking capital flows. No individual can watch everything everywhere and this illustrates my point about analysts who are only focusing on one market or domestically. You cannot forecast anything in isolation.We now have cash scurrying from the long into the short end of the curve; this may last into 2015.75, creating the illusion that all is well and rates are still falling on the near-term. But the long-term appears to have peaked with the May target. So far, each piece is falling into place. We still need to watch a few more markets to complete the setup for 2015.75.
The bund trade has been the bet against the euro, but Merkel is not about to abandon the euro. Discussions about changing the rules for Greece and consolidating all the debts of member states were fundamentally pointing to the bund trade reversing as well.
Currently, a weekly closing below 15020, followed by a monthly closing below 15068, will warn of a further break to the downside. June was a Directional Change and July is a key turning point, so everything has been on schedule so far. Break that channel and you will see the Sovereign Debt Crisis. You can see that our Energy Model peaked in February, warning that the upside was not sustainable with such a divergence.
Here is the weekly array. This will provide guidance for the turning points ahead on a week-by-week basis.
This is the entire reason behind the Global Market Watch. This is a tool we use to provide the biggest clients with global portfolios. Since the computer is constantly monitoring everything at all times, it allows you to see the world at a glance. No analyst can do that. In addition, the computer is never tired, sick, had a fight the night before, or distracted by romance. The computer is consistent and chugs along on its merry way. It may not be 100% perfect, for like a child it is always learning. It still is finding patterns that have not shown up before, so it learns as it develops.
NSA Staff Calling in Fake Bomb Threats to Get Refunded?
There have been multiple bomb threats called in against U.S. aircrafts, curiously timed in a possible attempt to support refunding the NSA. The threats, five in total, were similar to chemical weapon threats made against an aircraft last week. Clearly, the claims were fake, and although NBC News reported that the threats may have been made by an ISIS “lone wolf”, it is more likely that some character inside the government is behind it to keep their funding and jobs. If it were ISIS or some real terrorist group, doing that would ensure refunding. That would make no sense. Obviously, these fake threats involve someone who wants the program refunded, not someone who would want to carry out some attack.
Meanwhile, Homeland Security officials confirmed to Fox News that TSA screeners failed 67 out of 70 tests – or 96% – carried out by special investigators known as “red teams.” In one case, an undercover agent with a fake bomb strapped to his back, set off a magnetometer – but the screener still failed to find it. The director was reassigned after the failure. Anyone who travels frequently can attest to the fact that it is a joke, to say the least. In 2012, when I flew around the world to conferences in San Diego, Bangkok, and Berlin, Danielle had a large pair of scissors in her bag from the office that she forgot about.
We left Philadelphia with no problem; San Diego to Chicago with no problem; Chicago to Hong Kong with no problem; then Hong Kong to Beijing with no problem. Only when we left Beijing for Singapore did they find it in her bag – so much for airport security. Yet we have to take off our belts, shoes, pull laptops out into separate bins, all for what?
These government employees are not paid well, and were likely former mall cops. Yet this is what government pretends is security, citing it as an excuse for why the NSA is desperately needed. Collecting every phone call and storing it forever is a violation of human rights and has nothing to do with national security. It failed to stop the Boston Bombings, yet they used their cell phones to track them after the fact. The NSA could not anticipate the attack on their own headquarters when two men dressed up as women. Yet we need to give up all privacy, for what? There is no evidence whatsoever that this total surveillance has EVER prevented an attack in advance. Collecting data for specific targets suspected of terrorism is far more practical and manageable. It is impossible to sift through every phone call to prevent a crime. So why do they need to have every call, email, text message, and letter intercepted when it is impossible to prevent any crime?
Strange Deaths Surrounding Wall Street
Thomas J. Hughes, a 29-year-old investment banker allegedly took his life by jumping from a luxury apartment building at 1 West Street in Manhattan last week. Per usual, the NYPD immediately declared it a suicide. Strangely, serious investigations never took place and similar deaths have occurred within the past 18 months all declared suicides.
Wall Street on Parade has been following a lead, alleging insurance fraud. They may be barking up the wrong tree with regard to motive, but what they are barking about is very strange. I suspect that, like myself, they may have stumbled upon info with respect to market manipulations that would uncover even more wrongdoing and billions of dollars in fines.
Wall Street on Parade’s barking may not be the motive for the deaths, but given the strange death of Senior Vice President of MassMutual, Melissa Millan, 54, who they point out was in possession of the very type of peer review records they were seeking, there may be another motive. As Wall Street on Parade reported about Millan’s death, “That meant Millan was among a limited group outside of Federal regulators who was in a position to have broad data on the death benefit claims being submitted by multiple banks and able to run studies to detect if anomalies were emerging.” Millan was brutally stabbed to death while jogging in Simsbury, Connecticut. The connection may not mean that she was murdered to cover-up insurance payments, but rather that she may havesuspected murder and thus insurance fraud so her murder might be required to prevent an investigation of the Wall Street suicide contagion.
During my recent European tour, people continually asked, “Why are you still alive?” True, there was an attempt on my life and I spent 3 days in a coma, but I survived, no doubt to their dismay. I doubt many people would buy a claim I committed suicide after the Supreme Court compelled them to end the contempt by agreeing to hear the case. So in my case, they will have to fake an accident or cause me to be in the wrong place at the right time.
Yet at the very beginning of my case, someone placed a bullet in my mailbox as a warning before the contempt began. That was even discussed in court and the bullet was turned over as evidence. In my case, I had tapes documenting every market manipulation of the “club” which included who they were. They were seized from my lawyers under threat of imprisoning them and then the receiver demanding those tapes was given a job inside Goldman Sachs as a board member yet continued to work as the court receiver from the board of Goldman Sachs never resigning from the court..
So what is the common link? Some may be stress and being pushed too far as the Goldman Sachs analyst. But I suspect it is not murder for insurance, but suicide to cover up the people they fear will be the next Snowden of Wall Street. I also believe that Robert Maxwell, the flamboyant billionaire British publisher, who allegedly drowned after falling off his yacht in the Canary Islands near the northwest coast of Africa, was part of the “club”. Maxwell’s last words in communication were on November 5, 1991. Note the date for the Salomon Brothers scandal manipulating the U.S. Treasury Auctions broke August 18, 1991.
Maxwell’s death triggered the collapse of his publishing empire as banks called in loans. Why would they call in loans on a major company unless they knew something was not right? Maxwell’s sons briefly struggled to keep the business together, but failed as news emerged that Maxwell had stolen hundreds of millions of pounds from his own companies’ pension funds. That was not to support a lifestyle, that was punting money. The Maxwell companies applied for bankruptcy protection in 1992. Those funds, I believe, were used as part of the “club” and were lost. Had Maxwell survived and been charged, he may have given up everyone else in the “club”.
Even in the murder of Edmond Safra, they blamed the male nurse, Ted Maher, threw him in prison, and then released him saying he never received a fair trial that the prosecutor and judge colluded against him and never said who killed him. Maher was imprisoned in Monaco for over two yearsbefore his trial began, resulting in a considerable amount of controversy and speculation surrounding the case. Days before Safra’s death, he finalized the sale of his Republic National Bank to HSBC Holdings plc indemnifying them for $1 billion to compensate the money stolen from our accounts to prevent lawsuits against Republic by its shareholders. Dominic Dunn wrote in his Death in Monaco on that affair:
“Everyone thought the story was more complicated than the official version—which was that the male nurse did it. “Sure, sure, he’ll do four years, and there’ll be $4 million waiting for him,” one man said to me. His wife didn’t agree with him. “You wait. He’ll conveniently die in prison in a few years of pneumonia or something.” A more conservative friend of the Safras said to me in Paris, “Among friends, we avoid talking about it. It might not be what it is.”
There is a very dark and sinister cloud that overhangs this whole mess. It is unlikely that the government will ever investigate, for that would be way too dirty to air publicly. It just seems death, money, and Wall Street are always behind a curtain and the truth never surfaces.
Distinguishing the Three Flavors of the Debt Crisis
Not all debt has the same economic effect, for like ice cream, there are at least three basic flavors:
- If someone borrows to create a business, this is the most productive form of debt, which expands the economy producing real jobs.
- Next we have the “bring it forward” debt scheme. This is a mortgage that brings future spending into the present, and actually reduces future economic expansion by transferring that spending to the present. Ongoing payments go toward interest – not economic expansion – reducing economic growth going forward. Job creation is minimal and can only be found in new home/business construction that is temporary and very brief.
- Then we have government debt. This is in a category all by itself, for it is deflationary since it is never actually paid off. To service this debt, taxes must be enforced and raised over time, reducing disposable income for the taxpayers. This is more of a destructive economic influence than a constructive one. Even spending on infrastructure robs the future income for the present, which also has a long-term negative impact. Because government jobs are public servant, they produce no positive creation of GDP since they neither produce a product adding to the wealth of a nature. Government consumes the wealth of a nation the same as hiring a maid for home who does not add to the household income.
Those who rant and rave about debt as a whole fail to grasp that debt is not always destructive. It depends entirely upon the purpose of the debt, as well as how/if the debt is repaid.
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