Market Talk December 18th, 2015
It was not just large/last option expiry but also the Friday before Christmas, the biggest party night of the year when the Bank of Japan supplied an early headache to the markets as they announced additional QE – despite leaving rates unchanged. We heard of two major announcement’s this morning, one being an extension in maturities (from 10 to 12 year) JGB’s to be purchased. The second, slightly off piste, was the purchase of ETF’s (Exchange Traded Funds) at an annual pace of Y300Bil ($2.5Bil). This is in addition to the banks existing ETF program. This news managed, temporarily, to turn a weak Nikkei higher (by 2%) but alas could not hold the turn and eventually closed on the day down 1.90%.
Both Shanghai and HSI closed marginally lower and all as the PBOC set the YUAN rate lower against at 6.4757. After the roller coaster ride in Asia and with last-nights weak US market it was no surprise that Europe opened lower and kept going! All core Europe lost between 1 and 1.5% even as they respective currencies fell.
In the US stocks opened very weak with Financials leading the way (-2.5% from the open). This is rather puzzling for a normal market especially as the banks raised Prime rates but left Deposits unchanged following the FED’s decision. The spread for banks is widening and this is very negative long-term for the economy. By the close of the day the DOW had lost 367 points (-2.10%) and the S&P and NASDAQ 1.6% each. Late this evening we also saw the VIX trade close to the 20 mark.
In the US stocks opened very weak with Financials leading the way (-2.5% from the open). This is rather puzzling for a normal market especially as the banks raised Prime rates but left Deposits unchanged following the FED’s decision. The spread for banks is widening and this is very negative long-term for the economy. By the close of the day the DOW had lost 367 points (-2.10%) and the S&P and NASDAQ 1.6% each. Late this evening we also saw the VIX trade close to the 20 mark.
Most dealers continue to blame oil for the set-back with declines today of around another 1% in both WTI and Brent (last seen $34.60 and $36.80). Gold recouped some of yesterdays losses gaining $15 and was last seen at $1065. As typical, people sell gold when stocks rally and buy it when they decline. This relationship will also flip in 2016.
US Treasuries continue to benefit with all the curve performing today. The curve saw a parallel shift 3bp better from 2’s out to the long end. 10years were last seen under 2.20% at 2.19 (a gain of over 3bp from last night’s 2.22% close. Over in Europe the fixed-income market continues to trade better as ECB talks the market better. 10yr Bund closed this evening at 0.55% brining the spread to close the week at +164bp.
Invitation to Socrates Access for General Public – Investor Level
If you would like to request an invitation to join the Investor level platform of Socrates, please visit ask-socrates.com. Please note that it may take up to two weeks to receive your access invitation.
Our Trader level of service is currently unavailable, but we expect it to launch during the first quarter of 2016. The Trader level will include forecast arrays, reversals, and Socrates’ short-term outlook on the markets. Interested users may upgrade their Investor level accounts to the Trader level once it is available.
The Investor level currently includes:
- Socrates’ long-term analysis (monthly, quarterly, yearly)
- Pattern recognition models (Global Market Watch)
- Foreign exchange flow map
- A customizable watch list
Gold Into the Abyss?
QUESTION: Marty, thank you for the conference. I have made more than 10 times the seat price just on your top couple of trades. I see the world differently now for the first time. My question is on Gold. You said it will move down and that the big risk is the first quarter. It is now clear why other analysts copy what you say or the pretend analysts who sell gold and the collapse of the dollar demonize you. They are not analysts at all. Even your Global Market Watch said October was a critical high in gold. They are real snake oil salesmen with no remorse blame conspiracies they cannot prove just to rob you of as much money as possible. I feel so foolish to have ever listened to such people. You are right. They never say sell. Only buy more all the way down. Their followers are blind and incapable of self analysis. They are the fuel for these type of operators who care nothing about what they are doing or their readers.
I assume your expectation for gold remains the same. You are always consistent. You do not cheer every $20 move as they do. When will you issue the gold report?
Thank you for opening my eyes. I see the world now and all the connections. This is more than trading. You are proving there is hidden order within the chaos we just ignore.
DW
ANSWER: Here is the weekly chart for gold going into year-end. Yes, gold will gravitate toward the year-end number. We can see on our Energy Model that, while they may be cheering every $20 rally as you say, fewer and fewer people are listening. This model has been showing that the rallies are getting weaker and we will need to shake the trees hard before the turn to get those clinging to the branches to give up. This is like Napoleon trying to lead his troops into Russia during winter. They die before you ever get to the end game.
This is not a personal game of “I told you so.” Being personally right means nothing. It will not get me a free coffee at Starbucks. The world is really screwed up. The time is coming when we stand for something or we surrender everything. Making a ton of money is great for now. But will it mean anything in the future? This is not a game for personal glory. Everyone knows I do not need money, which is why you do not see us selling your name or advertisement space on this site. What I do is also selfish. Where do I go when the shit hits the fan? What about my family? We are moving rapidly toward electronic money outside the USA first in Europe and Asia, and there is talk now in the Middle East as well. Some admit it is for taxes, others claim it is to stop terrorism. Either way, we lose everything because money and capitalism are the cornerstones of freedom — the opposite of communism/socialism where the state comes before the people.
Gold will gravitate toward the year-end number. That is what these things simply do. Everything has a time and place. Nothing is random except the analysis of these pretend analysts and promoters. There is a hidden order that cannot be seen with fundamentals alone. That becomes just sophistry. You are correct, there is no remorse and no change in methodology because it becomes a fixed belief like the world is flat and to hell with anyone who dares to disagree. Physics simply does not tolerate this idea of total randomness. Everything has a purpose and there are definitive laws on how things function. Only sublime fools continue down a course that continues to prove it is the wrong path.
Sorry, but all the old theories of economics pale in comparison to world events. The floating exchange rate system began in 1971. China always had a “fiat” type system. How long are you willing to wait to be right? Forty to 60 years or more? Waiting for something to happen that you do not understand outside of sophistry seems to be a waste of a lifetime.
We will issue this report in two parts. Part I will be as soon as we have the year-end closing. This will be the guide into the low and will provide the markers to explain how low the low is. Do we crack $1,000 or go all the way to the $600 marker? Part II will be from the low to the high in the years ahead.
We will post it when available. YOU CANNOT BUY IT NOW. Please wait until 2016.
No comments:
Post a Comment