Baby Cages were the Modern Invention in 1922
Perhaps we should bring back the Baby Cage of 1922 invented for children to get fresh air in high-rise apartments. This time, we should install them in Washington for our pretend “representatives” who always vote against our interests in favor of their own political career ambitions.
What Is Said Publicly & Privately Differ – Here Comes 2017
QUESTION: Marty, you know which bank I am at. You also know the Fed has been going around warning banks that their models are wrong and they will not see a flight to quality being the 30 year bonds. Yet Yellen seems to also say she does not believe in inevitable cycles. They are saying one thing publicly and another behind the curtain. Are you sure they are not attending your conferences covertly?
ANSWER: Other central banks are open as to who they are when they attend, which did surprise me. I believe that there are people within the central banks who are looking at our work, especially since the Bank of China came out publicly and stated they are using capital flow analysis which we invented. Yellen’s statement is political:
I think it’s a myth that expansions die of old age. I do not think that they die of old age. So the fact that this has been quite a long expansion doesn’t lead me to believe that it’s one that has, that its days are numbered. But the economy does get hit by shocks, and they were both positive shocks and negative shocks.
She will not come out and say there is a business cycle for it is a presumption, as Larry Summers noted, that if you admit there is a cycle it creates one. People who have no trading experience cannot see the real forces behind the business cycle. Nevertheless, I would not take what she says publicly seriously. Just in October, the IMF began warning that the core G7 economies had experienced a very weak recovery which risked turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year, as reported in the Guardian. The IMF is warning that if the Fed raised rates, they will set off a new financial crisis because of other indebted countries.
Yellen’s statement is a public one and not one which should be taken seriously. Summers’ simply admits he is incapable of doing any forecasting. His original proposal to move interest rates negative demonstrates that the guy knows nothing about how the economy functions for all he looks at is the bankers. What about the savers or the elderly whose retirement he has destroyed? What about the pension funds he has wiped out? The high-yield hedge funds going belly-up is all part of this inability to forecast. They assume that the trend in motion will remain in motion and not die of old age.
Paul Volcker wrote:
The Rediscovery of the Business Cycle – is a sign of the times. Not much more than a decade ago, in what now seems a more innocent age, the ‘New Economics’ had become orthodoxy. Its basic tenet, repeated in similar words in speech after speech, in article after article, was described by one of its leaders as ‘the conviction that business cycles were not inevitable, that government policy could and should keep the economy close to a path of steady real growth at a constant target rate of unemployment.
So do not take whatever Yellen says publicly very seriously. She cannot speak freely any more than you can (working for a bank). If you work in a bank or government, you cannot speak freely for whatever statement you make is attributed to the whole.
The recovery is extremely weak. The Fed had to raise rates because Larry Summers is dead wrong. The Fed can see that negative interest rates have FAILED to work. Even QE has not worked in Japan or Europe. This alone proved that the idea of increasing money supply will cause hyperinflation. This totally misread what took place during the German hyperinflation. They failed to realize the new government previously defaulted of all debt which wiped out savings, banks, and pensions. They printed money because that was all that was left. It was the symptom rather than the cause.
There is no CONFIDENCE and it is being killed with taxes. As we approach 2017, those in power have only sought to maintain their power. They are raising taxes and enforcing taxes to the point where they are reversing everything that made the world economy function post-World War II. It was the free flow of capital that reconstructed the world. This is the very thing that governments are shutting down for taxes. We are now officially driving in reverse.
This is the government’s own forecast for the budget crisis. 2017 will be the year from hell all around the globe.
Suing Universities for Consumer Fraud – Has Their Time Come?
The Australia’s News.COM is reporting the story of Clark Moffatt when to law school to get his dream job as a lawyer working in the America criminal justice system – like we really need more prosecutors. Neverthless, after nearly a decade graduating with his sheep’s skin, Moffatt has yet to land a job in the profession of his dream. His student debt stands at more than $230,000 and he has a wife and two kid to support.
Moffatt is is using the skill he was taught at last for something worthwhile. He is now suing his law school, claiming it intentionally misled students and exaggerated postgraduation employment figures and future salary expectations. This is standard consumer fraud since Hillary is the one who supported the bankers in making student loans non-dischargeable in bankruptcy. Thanks to Hillary his family is screwed. The only other course of action is is go after the school.
This is the ONLY legal course of action open to students. It would be great to see a major class-action case against schools for it is time CYCLICALLY for their peak in what has been the same as healthcare – massive fraud instigated by student loans to support an industry that no longer needed to be competitive.
Gold the Update
Gold for year-end has a number 1044.50. If we close BELOW this next Wednesday on December 31st. This is a question of if we close above this does not provide a buy signal nor does it avoid a sell signal. The only sell signal is way down at $680. A close beneath 1044.50 will suggest short-term immediate weakness, whereas a close above keeps the torture process in motion.
We have to realize that we have a conflict or split-high in gold and this generates the problem. A reaction from the 2012 high close is 2015 but a bear cycle is complete from the 2011 intraday high not before 2016. The worse case scenario is a bear-cycle calculated from the high close of 2012. That infers a low in 2017.
Nonetheless, because we have a conflict at the high with the split between intraday and closing taking place in different years, this also typically warns that what we get on one side far too often implies the same on the opposite side should be expected.
Therefore, a closing ABOVE 1044.50 for 2015 implies this is not sufficiently weak enough just yet. This can mean only that 2016 produces the lowest closing and 2017 the intraday low. This type of outcome MUST be reviewed with the signal on other markets for this may be forewarning of war breaking out in 2017 on a much more profound manner. Nevertheless, the timing targets of the next Benchmark and the price we warned about at the conferences are still valid. It still appears that 2016 is the primary target and a directional change.
TIMING is everything. We will provide Part I for the metals after we get the year-end closings. The way the markets are performing right now definitely are making some very strange movements that are not looking very good on our broader long-term models.
We will advise as soon as Part-I of the report is available after we get the year-end closings. The weekly targets and arrays will be extremely important now.
Why I would NEVER donate to Wikipedia
This is a very interesting TEDx presentation of the massive effort to make you think a particular way which is all crafted from Behind the Curtain. Anything that has any possible political connection on Wikipedia is simply not trustworthy.
Stocks v Economic Growth – What Relationship?
QUESTION: Did you contradict yourself when you said higher dollar will weaken US economy?. Then you said interest rates will make stocks rise?
ANSWER: No. What you have to grasp here is that the stock market can rise for two entirely different reasons and it depends upon the mix of trends.
1) The normal market rally unfolds with higher corporate earnings and economic expansion regardless of the trend in interest rates but this materializes with rising rates generally.
2) When capital fears government, be it domestic or international, then capital will park in stocks as a hedge irrespective of corporate earnings. Assets have an international value which will rise in proportion to the decline in a currency as long as there is underlying confidence within that private sector. You can actually have GDP growth decline and the stock market will still rise. The DAX in Germany has risen even with corporate earnings not expanding and the economic growth has been in decline as people try to hedge the collapse of the Euro.
The rise in the stock market with a declining economy unfolds exactly as does hyperinflation where assets rise against a depreciating currency value. This is not simply a one-dimensional relationship. It can become complex and this is why most people lose money for they try to reduce any trend to a one-dimensional cause and effect which does not exist.
They Fled Also After the Fall of Rome
With the fall of Rome, monks fled to a small island off the coast of Ireland known as Skellig Michael (Irish: Sceilig Mhichíl).What you may not be aware of is that we actually owe a great deal to these monks. Why? They took with them books that did not survive elsewhere except among the Arab scholars. The reigniting of knowledge which began during the 12th century, was only possible because some people fled taking the core of civilization’s knowledge with them.
The monks founded a Christian monastery on the island at some point during the 6th century following the fall of Rome in 476AD. The monastery remained continuously occupied until its abandonment during the late 12th century. The remains of the monastery became a UNESCO World Heritage Site in 1996. So sometimes, looking for a place to hide in the middle of political turmoil pays-off.
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