Refugees Vanish After Entry in East Germany
Thousands of refugees disappear in East Germany without a trace after the initial reception. This is merely highlighting the security risks for Europe as a whole. The politicians just do not get it. The situation cannot be properly managed. The idea behind this move by Merkel has been to expand the population to sustain the tax levels and pay the pensions that are going bust. But she fails to grasp that the economy is in a decline and the jobs will not appear out of think-air and cannot while government are hunting money and collapsing the world economy all for taxes. The sales-job has been thechildren. What about others? Surely Europe could have set up camps in Turkey and supplied food and clothing. It was labor that was moving behind the curtain.
Denmark Wants to Seize Refugee’s Cash & Jewelry
Denmark has been fighting against the EU trend to accept unlimited amounts of refugees. This has been rising for behind the curtain there is now evidence emerging showing that ISIS has the ability to counterfeit Syrian Passports. Denmark took an advertisement out in Lebanese newspapers warning that those who are even thinking about seeking asylum in Europe better not come to Denmark. Now, Denmark is debating yet another step many see as reasonable while others call it extreme. The government is now considering to introduce a law that would allow authorities to confiscate jewelry and cash from refugees entering the country to help pay for their stay. The proposal is almost certain to pass Parliament.
TIME & Forecasting – Has it Really Changed?
QUESTION: Hi Martin,
I have been a follower of your blog since The Forcaster was broadcasted on national tv in Sweden. My question is about periodtime, or frequency of the business cycle and the other cycles.
As society today seems to move much faster than a hundred years ago one would guess that the business cycle now would be faster (shorter period time). You said that you have a secret third axis to price and time, will this third axis affect periodtime or only the amplitude? Or are the different major cycles divided into a number of smaller cycles and due to the correlation with other parameters this will cause changes in the major period time? Or is the major periodtime constant and only the amplitude will be affected by the different parameters?
Best Regards,
KH, Sweden
ANSWER: It may appear that things develop faster, but they do not. An example was Rome revolted against its king and started the Republic in 509BC. Within about 6 months Athens overthrew its tyrants and began democracy. The time was the same for the fall of Communism between Tiananmen Square and the fall of the Berlin Wall. True, perhaps someone jumping on a ship took one week to get to Athens with the news compared to 1 hour in 1989/ However. it is not how fast the information flows, it still takes the same amount of time to filer by word of mouth within a population to create the change. So while the speed may seem faster, society still requires time to digest the information and act.
The amplitude of the business cycle does appear to change when government attempts to manipulate society. This is evidenced by the fact that economists cannot forecast and as such act more like witch doctors who keep trying things until the evil spirits leave or the person dies because they did not get there soon enough. Each wave progressively builds until you reach the point that government becomes so arrogant you get that moment when those in power say – let them eat cake. Then they rise up and off with their heads.
If we lived with the cycle and understood that it is partly driven by nature beyond the control of humankind, then the best we can hope for is to reduce the amplitude with respectful administration that MUST eliminate career politicians who always become drug with power and detached fro the people. We cannot alter the business cycle for there are far too many aspects within it. The government manipulators lower interest rates to try to “stimulate” borrowing and wipe out the elderly and savings not to mention pension funds. They collectively screw the world economy and society because they assume they can FORCE us to perform as they desire.
Thomas Paine said that government is born from wickedness since its primary directive is punishment. Society is born from cooperation among people with a common goal of making life better. The two ultimately clash and result in revolution. No society has yet to be exempt from this cycle between good and evil.
So the assumption that we are somehow more sophisticated today which means things move faster is simply not true. The world communication has improved, but most still remain ignorant of events outside of their own country. It just takes society the same amount of time to reject the status-quo and start over – but that is inevitable and will always happen.
Comment from Western Australia
COMMENT:
MA, OH things are bad out West.. the commodity downturn – oil and gas, basic metals – Iron ore Copper etc…and the housing market is the worst there OF all the Australian states :arrears and non performing past 90days is around 4% on owner occupied residential
MA, OH things are bad out West.. the commodity downturn – oil and gas, basic metals – Iron ore Copper etc…and the housing market is the worst there OF all the Australian states :arrears and non performing past 90days is around 4% on owner occupied residential
…El’nineo has screwed the current (and looking like the up coming winter crop–for Australia) wheat crop– which is large for Western Australia….. WA’s unemployment, as measured by the lie statistics, is 50% higher than the national average % reported… head of NAB was out there talking which means a bad smell… of probably portfolio problems….
History says “whatever starts in the West heads east” on the economic front…Correct me there if I’m wrong MA…well it was that way in the US of A’s history anyway..
Cheers
Cheers
FDR
REPLY: True. In part, they sell the stocks following oil fearing that the further collapse in commodities will bring further economic decline to the world economy. Interesting twist going on right now. Lower commodities means more deflation.
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