Shmita cycle & Big Bang
QUESTION:
Thank you for the research and insightful posts you share with us each and every day. Question: Since you are keen of market cycles, I wanted to get your take on the 7-year Shmita cycle and the 49-year Jubilee cycle that arises from the 7-year Shmita cycle.
As you know, Shmita means ‘shaking’ or the ‘release’. Of course, such words loosely interpreted more often than not to purposely fit a particular group or persons viewpoint. My question to you is; is there any relevancy to the 7-year Shmita cycle and the full 49 year Jubilee cycle?
….
During the year of the Jubilee (2015 – 2016), it is said that creditors return the land to the people and all debts are forgiven. Taking into consideration the work you’ve done and how this concept can be applied to our current monetary regime, could all this mean that the more likely solution as we turn the corner in 2015.75 is a complete overhaul (reform) of the economic and political system; one that is less oppressive and more comprehensive?
Note: Interestingly. The Shmita targets September 2015 as the year were the ‘release’ or ‘shaking’ of world events ends.
Thank you.
DS
ANSWER: The entire debt cycle has been with us for a very long time. There are even debt crisis in Babylon and ancient Athens. It appears that we will have to address this pending Sovereign Debt Crisis for it is unsustainable. The fact that this also lines up with the ECM is another great curiosity. It appears that there is some truth in old wisdom. It is always the debt that destroys so to a large extent, this may have been a wise preventative measure that tempered the boom bust cycle. Shmita cycle (sabbath year) is clearly a practical statement of an economic problem of leverage.
Looks Like Some Planets also Conform to Pi
COMMENT: Hi Marty,
Its not just the Sun, some planets also seem to line up with the Pi Frequency. The most interesting is Venus which completes 7 orbits in one 4.3 year cycle.
| Venus | Earth | Mars | Jupiter | |
| Period, d | 224 | 365.25 | 687.00 | 4332.00 |
| Period, y | 0.61 | 1.00 | 1.88 | 11.86 |
| Orbits | 7 | 4.3 | 16 | 4 |
| Pi Cycles | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 11.0 |
REPLY: Looking at Venus, the period 224 is the span of International Panics, 26 in total, that led me to discover 8.6 and the Pi frequency in economic business cycles.
Interest Expenditures Will Exceed Defense by 2020
“However, that will flip the other way for interest expenditures will exceed defense by 2020 and with a uptick in interest rates, then you will see inflation.”
My statement as a matter of fact seem to have picked up a lot of interest. Inflation will return ONLY when interest rates rise. I know this is opposite what they teach in school and this is opposite of what the pundits preach on CNBC. Sorry – this is just a real fact of life not theory.
Because government is the biggest debtor and they will never curtail their spending or new offerings of debt each year, as the Fed raises rates to deal with a capital inflow into US assets fleeing elsewhere as sovereign debt moves into crisis, the US national debt expenditures will rise faster than at any point in history. If rates rise now from 1% to 2%, that is a huge increase. We are facing a runaway debt train and that will be the catalyst for political reform.
We will be republishing an expanded version of the Greatest Bull Market in History. I have added 500 pages expanding the scope back to the start of socialism and the 34 years that led to the 1929 high. The newspapers logic was exactly opposite. Rising interest rates were touted as bullish for that meant people were still borrowing – CONFIDENCE. The press post-1929 became socialistic. The movement in interest rates was then all about what government wanted the markets to do.
We will return to the view of pre-1929. It is just that so many people have been taught all this nonsense surrounded by theory which is part of the socialistic agenda. We will embrace reality once again.
Without a major increase in interest rates, the sheer volume of new debt will cause total interest expenditures to rise exceeding defense by 2020. If rates take off much faster from 2015.75, we will bring this in as early as 2017.
Fractional Banking Misrepresentations
COMMENT: Hi Martin,
FYI – I personally think the confusion on this topic comes from the University. I was a student 20 years ago and studied finance. This is what we were taught – The money supply expands with lower reserve requirements. It should really read the money supply would expand with a lower reserve requirement and willing parties with confidence to loan and borrow the extra leverage with the emphasis on CONFIDENCE. I know it would never happen, but a class action would feel good against the people who claim to be experts and should be judged using the expert standard.
Thank you for the free education.
JH
REPLY: You have put it correctly. This is why we have this insanity of lowering rates to negative. The missing element isCONFIDENCE. A simple correlation reveals that there is no empirical level of interest rates that ever marks the high. This is because the missing element is the public sentiment – CONFIDENCE. People will not borrow unless they BELIEVE they will make a profit so it is the differential between the interest rate and the expected gain.
Additionally, we are screwed not because of fractional banking for the people respond to the economy unlike government, but because government is the biggest borrower. The central bank CANNOT control inflation any more than it can stimulate a depression when the biggest player is government. Whatever the central bank does to the economy has no impact upon government for they will borrow perpetually year after year. They will never reduce taxes to stimulate or cut spending to reduce inflation. They are amplifying the boom bust cycle.
This is why we have to eliminate government debt, but we must prevent government from borrowing. Keynes advocated deficit spending during a depression but during a recession he recommended lowering taxes. Government will never see itself as the problem for that is always us. They do not grasp that the central bank can create money out of thin air doubling the money supply from say $1,000 to $2,000. But if government raised taxes from $500 to $1500 that will be DEFLATIONARY. QE1-3 demonstrated that increasing money supply is NOT inflationary for this is more like a contango. Whatever they increased was more than offset by the capital destruction during the contraction and the tax increases and enforcement that keep rising. It is the NET we must pay attention to – not only one side of the coin being what the Fed does with money supply.
Blood Moon September 28th, 2015
We have received a lot of emails about the Blood Moon and how the last of the lunar tetrad lines up with the major turning point on the Economic Confidence Model this year – 2015.75. Lunar eclipses usually do not occur in any specific order. However, every once in a while, four total lunar eclipses happen in a row. This is called a lunar tetrad. The total lunar eclipses happen 6 months apart. There are at least six full Moons between two total lunar eclipses in a tetrad.
The first three total eclipses in this lunar tetrad occurred on
April 15, 2014,
October 8, 2014,
and April 4, 2015.
October 8, 2014,
and April 4, 2015.
The last eclipse of the tetrad will occur on September 28, 2015, which lines up two days before the turning point September 30th/October 1st. According to NASA, the current century – 2001 to 2100 – will have eight tetrads. The first tetrad of the 21st century took place in 2003, and the second will happen in 2014-2015. The first eclipses in each of these tetrads will occur between March and May.
Italian Astronomer Giovanni Schiaparelli calculated that the occurrence of such tetrads varies over centuries. Some 300 year intervals have several lunar tetrads, while other 300 year intervals do not have any. For example, the years between 1852 and 1908 did not have any tetrads, whereas the next 3 centuries will have 17 tetrads. This is how cycles function for there are multi-dimensions to such interactions.
In recent years, the term Blood Moon has become popular when referring to Total Lunar Eclipses because of the color. When the Earth eclipses a full Moon, the direct sunlight is blocked, but the sun’s rays still light up the moon. This light, however, has travelled through the Earth’s atmosphere first, and sometimes causes the totally eclipsed Moon to look red or brownish.
Some have latched on to this as yet another End-of-the-world Prophecy. I am not sure why they always want the world to end, but that does not appear in the cards or entrails.
Some people believe that the tetrad has special significance because the eclipses coincide with important Jewish festivals. The two April lunar eclipses in 2014 and 2015 occurred at the same time as Passover, while the October and September eclipses occur during the Feast of Tabernacle. This, they suggest, is connected to a biblical prophecy of the end of times.
Some people believe that the tetrad has special significance because the eclipses coincide with important Jewish festivals. The two April lunar eclipses in 2014 and 2015 occurred at the same time as Passover, while the October and September eclipses occur during the Feast of Tabernacle. This, they suggest, is connected to a biblical prophecy of the end of times.
The fact is, eight of the tetrads since the first century have coincided with Jewish holidays without the world going under, so there is no reason to believe that the 2014-2015 tetrad will end the world this time either. Nevertheless, this may be more of a marker for a major change in trend rather than the end of the world. At least on our models, everything is lined up from economics to war.
- Tetrad of 162-163 (Marcus Aurelius Comes to Power March 7th, 161 A.D)
- Tetrad of 795-796 (Charles Martel defeats Arab Invasion of Europe)
- Tetrad of 842-843 (Arabs Attack Rome 11,000 Troops)
- Tetrad of 860-861 (Byzantine Defeat Muslims – Decline Begins)
The first four events marked the peak in the Roman Empire, the beginning of the rise of the Franks, the attempt to take Rome by the Muslims, and the major defeat of the Muslims by Byzantium making their peak. The Muslims captured Constantinople in 1453. So these events were turning points, but certainly not the end of the world.
This phenomenon of four consecutive blood moons coinciding with Jewish feast days has only occurred three times since 1492 AD. The three times since 1492 are as follows:
- Tetrad of 1493-1494
- Tetrad of 1949-1950
- Tetrad of 1967-1968
Some have argued that Columbus was really Jewish and so they attribute the discovery of America and/or the start of the Spanish Inquisition to the 1493-1494 event. That effectively sent the Jews fleeing to Amsterdam and that is where insurance and the first exchange began trading. This marked the fall of Spain and the rise of the Dutch.
The next 1949-1950 marked the rebirth of Israel and then the 1967-1968 marked the beginning of the Arab war. So this does not appear to be a end of the world marker, but perhaps it will be merely a signal for a change in trend – the fall of the socialistic governments that have become an Oligarchy – by no means Democracies as they try to bullshit us.
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