A$ for the Close of 2014
The A$ also shows a decline against the greenback, although not as pronounced as that of the Euro. The key turning points here will be 2016 and 2018, where we should see aggressive volatility.
The key resistance will stand at the 14260 level. Resistance forms initially at the 13525 level and support will be found at the 11215 level. Nevertheless, the peak in the A$ came with the peak in gold during 2011 which was a classic 10 year bear market in the dollar from the 2001 high.
Consequently, it does not appear that we will achieve any major sell signal or buy signal for year-end in this currency.
C$ for Year-End 2014
A closing today for the C$ above the 10660 level will keep this currency weak against the US$. Resistance stands at the 11860 followed by 12102 with support at 11570 level. The Yearly Bullish Reversal stands up at 12426. Everything appears to be on track for a serious US dollar rally no matter what currency we look at. The two key target in the C$ will be 2016 and 2019.
The Swiss for Year-End 2014
The dollar has been rising against the Swiss thanks to its peg to the Euro. Of course the Swiss would love to have a lower currency for that will help their exports. The Swiss is currently trading at 9934 and a merely year-end closing above 9785 will signal that indeed the 2011 low for the dollar will hold and that a test of the 11800 followed by 12300 level then becomes possible. A closing today above 9970 will confirm a dollar rally into 2015. Nonetheless, 2016 still appears to be the start of a Panic Cycle with volatility rising into 2020 with perhaps an important turning point forming as late as 2019.
Wheat
A 2014 year-end closing for Wheat between 6770 and 5770 will keep the market poised in a neutral position. We require a monthly closing beneath 4470 to signal a real break to the downside. It still appears that we will have food problems in the years ahead forming after 2015.75. Wheat did fall in September to 4662. It appears we have extreme volatility returning between 2016 and 2017 with the primary target being the 2nd quarter 2017.
Only a high in 2015 would warn of a low forming by 2017 with a rally thereafter. However, failure to exceed 7115 level on a monthly closing basis leaves the door open for a retest of support in 2015. Pay attention to the computer generated reports on this market for updates.
2014 – What a Year
The year 2014 has been a year which has made all our long-term forecasts amazingly on target. The War Cycle pinpointed the sudden and dramatic rise is both civil unrest and the return of the cold war that has been turning red hot. More soldiers died in 2014 than before and the number of civilian casualties rose sharply even in Afghanistan.
On the political scene, the Democrats were literally thrown out of office with their perks. The Republicans thought the people loved their ideas, but missed the entire point. Politics has turned against anyone who is in power. This is very much like 1933 where political change engulfed the world swinging to the opposite trend that saw Hitler, Mao, and Roosevelt all swept into power from East to West. It was less about a philosophy than it was for just throw the bastards out to achieve change.
In Germany, all established political parties suffered significant losses in their memberships during 2014. The Greens were affected sharply. Only the alternative parties in Germany reported an increase.However, the AFD saw half of their members disappear from the political scene FDP.
In Germany, Angela Merkel made her 2014 TV appearance asking the German people not to participate in the Pegida Demonstrations in Dresden which were against Islamic followers. She termed then demonstrations as “cold” and “hate” driven by “prejudice”. The reputation of “We are the people was” like in the GDR, call of exclusion.
Yet the anti-Islamic movement brewing is indeed caused by government who have exploited the whole “terrorist” issue to further justify their power on every level from spying on the people to tracing all money flows, which is really for taxation. The unrestrained exploitation of the whole “terrorist” issue to further government power has had a kickback in creating a perception that is becoming anti-Islamic as uneducated people see images of ISIS and beheadings attributing this to all of Islam.
The constant fear-mongering politics over “terrorism” has been used to expand government control and the reaction is now that many people just fear Islam lacking the understanding that government has exploited this entire issue.
Government in their quest to expand their power have set in motion a trend that appears to be setting the stage for a new round of religious conflict. This trend feed into the very support for ISIS. As oil collapses in price, the economy in the Middle East will move into a serious recession and as that unfolds, more and more people will turn toward the differences in religion.
On the banking scene, the guys who brought you the 2007-2009 Meltdown, succeeded in getting Dodd-Frank virtually repealed and the Volcker Rule suspended most likely indefinitely. This demonstrates how corrupt government has become. This is not the “rich” for taxes jumped from about 35% to virtually 50% as the tax rate went up to 39.6% plus Obamacare and various bonus points for them. This is the exploitation of government at every level since the banks already control the courts and the Justice Department. So why not Congress as well.
So as we now see 2015 coming into play, we have about 10 months for what appears to be a very interesting time in the markets.