QUESTION: Martin,
I’ve written you a few times and greatly appreciate the replies and posts on your blog. As I have mentioned before, I worked for a metals dealer that traded on margin and caught a substantial amount if heat for being a bear w silver at 50 and gold at 1900+. I shorted silver the day you called the turning point. Unfortunately, most brokers on the floor had no interest in reading your 90+ page reports at the time, to try to learn the truth.
If I weren’t turned into you by Mr 50,000 gold, both myself and my clients would have lost a substantial amount of money. Not to mention future income derived by maintaining the trust of my clients throughout these past few years, and I’m certain the income I have lost over the past few years will come back sevenfold.
My question tonight is regarding financial privacy. Like you, I believe that high net worth investors should purchase gold, not for financial gain, but to hold assets out of the spying eyes of the gvmt. Like you, I also believe that we are heading towards digital currency (Israel is taking the reigns from what I have read) and negative nominal interest rates. Once the digital currency hits the shores of the USAA in full force, how does one liquidate their gold holdings in a private manner? Will the have to smuggle metal out if the country to be paid in cash? Will there be a black market for hard cash in the states? Ultimately, how does gold help protect folks from an out of control government?
Any advise is greatly appreciated.
Best wishes,
R
ANSWER: Let me begin by making it very clear that I do not read what other people write. Not that I do not respect other’s opinions, it is just that I have no time. Secondly, opinion does not mean much, even my own. Nobody’s opinion can be always right. My comments about $50,000 gold were not based on Jim Dines nor any reference regarding growing tired of pontificating by people who have zero experience. I would never engage in name-calling or other personal attacks. Lowering yourself to that level demonstrates you have nothing left to argue with and are in fact just hot air. Any reference was made in general to numerous people who pontificate with zero experience (new-comers) who have the audacity to pretend they know what really goes on by osmosis.
I was referring to people’s comments that come in expressed in emails with no particular person even named just coughed in question. This is not a personal game to me. I do not need money so I do not have to bullshit to get readers to sell them something or to prove a point to anyone. Nor do I interpret everything in the world with a conspiracy with no proof to justify my theory. I do not need to hear myself talk and would love to hide out on a beach away from this insane world.
Nobody will ever have 100% of any market so why bother? Everyone would never follow a single “opinion” for that is against human nature. If I said the sky is blue, someone will disagree and say it is dark blue and therefore I am wrong so do not listen to anything else I have to say. That is the essence of egotistical corruption that was the driving force behind communism – denial of freedom of speech. They cook the numbers like Pikittey to sell a preconceived idea. This should always be about expanding our knowledge since nobody is born all knowledgeable. That is the journey of life. When it is time to stop learning it is time to check out.
If I wanted to kiss-ass, so to speak, I would run for politics. NO THANKS! I have no interest in singling anyone out to disagree with. I know how the game works and Piketty’s book is not merely his personal opinion, it is about a false agenda that is not even his alone. That is a different category to me. We all have opinions and I am not about to ridicule someone like Jim Dines just because we may disagree on a price.. Besides, opinions are never consistent and forecasting the future based upon opinion is a fool’s game.
Those who close their mind because of bias or are “married to some idea” be it one-world government, dark conspiracies, secret societies, in the end only block themselves from advancing in knowledge by insisting they are never wrong it is always everyone else. These types of people know everything, ridicule anything that disagrees with their beliefs, and are thus incapable of ever advancing in life destined to die as ignorant as they came in. This are the personalty types that burned Bruno at the stake, imprisoned Galileo for life, and are generally intolerant of anyone who has a different view. When they cannot attack the evidence or reasoning, you attack the messenger.
I enjoy this field because I continue to learn nuances every day for as much as you think you have seen everything, there is always something new around the next corner. What has emerged is by no means my OPINION, yet people try to attack me as if it were because that is all they have – opinions. I did not come up with a theory of capital flows, I discovered that and I have the clients to thank for my global view. They made me see that I had to do forecasting in every currency or they were not interested.
That said; I received emails about others saying that number in gold of $50,000 – not Jim Dines.Perhaps they plagiarized him – I do not know who was first. As I have said, $50,000 is not a real gold target for me because it is not about opinion. To see gold above even $10,000 requires the assumption that the dollar decline placing such a move in the realm of currency inflation. For that to take place you must see a like advance in everything else, real estate, wages etc.. The maximum price projection for 2032 seems to be the $22,000 to $24,000 dollar level. That is derived purely technically – not my opinion or what I think. That is not even a forecast saying that is where it will rise to reach by 2032. That is just what it is – answering a question as to how high is it possible FROM A TECHNICALperspective for gold to reach. If that was reached and there was a collapse, you will not hear me say see I am better or some other stupid childish remarks. I am concerned with timing and price that are two separate and distinct model designs.
That aside, gold is not an “institutional” investment for it offers only costs and risks to hold producing no income for cash flow. Gold is purely a retail product. It cannot get off the ground institutionally.
For the individuals it is one way to get off the grid, although they do track who is buying and how much. You cannot hop on a plane anymore and carrying a brief case full of gold bullion will only justify its confiscation. We have to be concerned about our financial privacy, which the government has converted to a crime of “money laundering” that amounts to just hiding money from their reach. True, high net worth investors should purchase gold, not for financial gain, but as the hedge against government, which it appears we may need in the years ahead. We are headed into negative interest rates and a new world of digital currency for then nothing will be private. Those who think they can create their own currency – good luck. Ain’t gonna happen. It is government that has the tanks – not the Rothschild.
The digital currency will come AFTER 2015.75. Those who thought they were clever and think they can make tax-free income in Bitcoin, all I have to say is – been there done that. There were tax straddles that allowed people to push income from one year to the next using futures. They were sold by the major brokerage houses in the late 1970s. The IRS allows such schemes to progress, then hits them with huge interest, penalties, and sometimes criminal prosecutions. If anyone thinks they can use Bitcoin tax-free – good luck. You are probably destined for real tax-free living at the closest Federal prison. Don’t worry, like Motel 6 – they will keep the light on for ya.
“How does one liquidate their gold holdings in a private manner?” Good luck. The French went after coins shows requiring that they report all attendees. The shows no longer go to Paris. The coin and bullion dealers were by law in France barred from dealing in cash. The French started to travel to Belgium to buy and sell gold. The French complained to Belgium and hence we now have coordinated G20 level monitoring. So gold may no longer provide the easy way to facilitate life as it once did. It will depend upon someone taking it in barter and to understand that possibility, you have to use coins – not bars. I know gold refiners and they must report every gram in and out even if it is coming in and out from overseas. So the Feds know who buys and sells metals.
“Will the have to smuggle metal out if the country to be paid in cash?” There comes the metal detectors and Xrays. Then just traveling with more than even $3,000 is a presumption of guilt and they get to just seize it. Perhaps now you are starting to get a feel for why the NSA really monitors everything. We did not support Ukraine with boots on the ground because there was no profit compared to Iraq that filled to coffers of friends of the court and family members. The NSA has really been tracking money more so than terrorists it could not detect like the Boston Bombers.
“Will there be a black market for hard cash in the states? Ultimately, how does gold help protect folks from an out of control government?” Gold may still be viable outside of the major cities the further you get off the grid. However, keep in mind that absent moving too far into a Dark Age where even gold loses all value, such a period historically tends to last 3.5 to 6 years max. Dark Ages you multiply that by 100.
This is why I recommend collector’s coins dated prior to 1947. Regular common date $20 gold pieces are probably best. They were not confiscated only because Teddy Roosevelt had been an ancient coin collector. That will lend a bit more cover rather than pure bullion. You can always argue its your coin collection – not bullion. Depends upon the judge.
You can also place gold in jewelry as in ancient times. There are Ancient Egyptian pieces. I suppose I could ask the jeweler who makes the coins up for us what it would be to create 24k bracelets like this for those really looking hard. I have no idea. But this would get by most TSA people.
