Russian Passenger Flights Changing Flight Paths to Avoid Ukraine – Sign of what is to come?
Aeroflot and S7, the Russian airlines, have both changed their air routes to avoid Ukraine’s air space. This is a sign that they are clearly expecting tensions to rise and we may yet see a direct confrontation with Russia. Models still point to last weeks of March for some wild trading periods ahead.
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Another NY Trader Jumps to his Death
Another NY Trader jumps to his death in front of a train. The rash of suicides in the financial industry remain the buz of finance. Some say its the markets. Others say Bitcoin losses. Then others say the downturn in banks. It is probably all of the above and what I can say, unfortunately, it is right on time. We will most likely see this sort of stress soar after the next year.
Not everyone jumped. The famed trader Jesse Livermore shot and killed himself in the cloakroom of the Sherry Netherland Hotel in Manhattan on November 28, 1940. The police revealed that there was a leather-bound memo book found in Jesse Livermore’s pocket. The police told the press it was addressed to his wife and yet revealed his personal message saying:
“My dear Nina: Can’t help it. Things have been bad with me. I am tired of fighting. Can’t carry on any longer. This is the only way out. I am unworthy of your love. I am a failure. I am truly sorry, but this is the only way out for me. Love Laurie”
Jesse was one of the greatest traders of all times. But trading purely on opinion and gut feeling extracts its price – you can’t be right all the time. It is vital to separate ego from your trading decisions – this is the key to How to Survive Your Own Trading.
The number of people jumping with financial declines has been a universal trend. There were people jumping in Japan after the 1989 Crash. The jumpers in New York were mixed both from bankers to traders. There have even been women who jumped. This trend will continue longer than normal on this cycle and will most likely end in 2020.
The excessive bullishness we have seen from the gold promoters is identical to that of the stock promoters during the 1920s. When the market crash, they too tried to talk it up and conspiracy theories filled the air. So much so, one popular one was it had been a conspiracy to destroy the Republic Party by communists and socialists, keeping in mind there was the 1917 Russian Revolution and then the German Revolution of 1918. Marxism was becoming the new conspiracy behind everything That reached the ear of Herbert Hoover and in his memoirs he apologized for that rumor launched the Senate investigations that found nobody yet the investigation still gave birth to the SEC.
We are in a vortex of a very dark corner when it comes to economics, civil unrest, and war all converging at the same time. China peaked in 2007 and is en route for its low in 2020 as is Russia. This turns up the heat domestically where people lose money and want to seek retribution for their loss blaming others when it is their own emotions that get the best of them. The US as a whole will decline sharply after 2015.75 due to capital flows pouring in now that save it and people trying to get money out of banks and pension funds that need income or go bankrupt.
Nonetheless, the US banking sector also peaked in 2007 and its demise is waiting in 2020. The European banking sector is on life-support right now. When the electricity goes out, the breathing will cease. There is no saving Europe without major reform of Brussels who seems to have the scepter of power in their hand, and assume they need more to make it work while they ignore the rising unemployment among the youth that is staggering. The fact that half of the youth in France want to leave somehow is still not being noticed by the politicians or people who think the Euro’s rise is because it is a great hard currency backed by austerity – Ah, the US did that it was called the Great Depression.
Global Market Watch Still in Testing Phase
The Global Market Watch is still in the testing phase. This is an ongoing project that will be complete soon. Then we will provide a video on how to use it. It functions better on the more active markets compared to short-term bills that trade in a very tight range for days.
We will be providing a world map that shows the trends on a regional basis. We will be issuing our own global regional indexes with appropriate history. Any suggestions are certainly welcome.
Global Civil Unrest Continuing to Brew
In Turkey, they saw their worst day of civil unrest turning extremely violent. The protests continue in Venezuela for over a month now. In Spain, there seems to be perpetual protesting in Madrid’s Puerta del Sol Square including anti-government to the elderly protesting the freeze in pensions.
In Libya, parliament overthrew its prime minister. On Jan 12, the Deputy industry minister Hassan al-Droui was shot dead in Sirte, the first government official killed since Kadhafi’s fall. Then on March 2, protesters stormed the GNC, shooting two deputies and went on a rampage. This was followed on March 10 by navy boats failed to block a North Korean oil tanker carrying “illegal” oil loaded from a separatist rebel-held terminal at Al-Sidra preparing to fund a revolution or coup. On March 11, Parliament ousted Zeidan, who fled to Germany and on March 12, a militia loyal to authorities in Tripoli moved towards rebel positions in eastern Libya to “liberate” oil terminals. Libya is another flash point that nobody seems to be paring attention to. We tend to also overlook the exists of “to the shores of Tripoli” that is in the ”Marines’ Hymn“, which is, itself, a reference to the US Battle of Derne where US Marines led the battle against the forces of Tripoli in the First Barbary War.
The protests in Melbourne, Australian have been focused on religion so far. Nonetheless, the Australian state of Victoria’s parliament passed a bill giving police power to suppress protests. Of course there are even organizations trying to coordinate protests these days on the internet.
In the US, “illegal immigrants” who are just migrant workers are on a hunger strike protesting the typical way prisons treat people – they target anyone trying to stand up for their rights and generally throw them into solitary confinement. We will begin to see more of this as prisons cut back. Much of the food handed out in federal prison is marked “not fit for human consumption” for it is meat that is supposed to be tested but is sent to the prisons to save money. They were even serving Vietnam War rations in NYC. Prisoners are not considered human despite the pretense of human rights in the USA.
This is just now. There remains brewing rising discontent in Europe and we may see the worse protests there this summer.