Preliminary Capital Flows Fleeing Russia exceed $50 billion
So far our computer monitoring capital flows globally is showing a gross flight that is in excess of $50 billion. This will send the Russian economy into a negative growth rate for 2014 or flat at best in real terms. This seems to be spiraling downward and indications imply that Russia will most likely invade Ukraine but take the Eastern half based upon capital flight so far.
The model is targeting April, July, and then November. The Ruble reflects the decline in confidence in Russia as an investment destination. We see high volatility for the last quarter of 2014.
Bank Runs Starting in Ukraine
There are two converging trends emerging that are starting people to line up to take their money out of banks in Ukraine. In the South, it is the treat of war, and in the West, some fear that the IMF cannot be trusted and as such will expropriate their money as the IMF did in Cyprus. I have warned that any proposal with the IMF must be rejected. They are a dangerous organization more Marxist than Russia these days.