Ukraine Maybe The Most Important Country To Watch
The history of Ukraine is incredibly important in the entire Cycle of War. A full update on the Cycle of War is just about ready. Kiev was originally the first capital of Russia that was invaded and destroyed by the Mongols in 1240. It took nearly 100 years later for Moscow to rise as a city. All that remains of the ancient capital of Kiev is the ruins known as the Golden Gate constructed during the 11th Century.
Contacts on the ground inside Kiev and outside are reporting interesting trends. From outside of Kiev, the view is people are still protesting but peacefully after the clash with police when it became violent last weekend. The police were beating young kids who want to join with Europe. About 100,000 protesters converged on Kiev.
Ukraine is really divided in two. In the west closer to Poland, they want tighter relations with EU. They speak the Ukrainian language in the West. The channels on TV there are all about “Ukraine is Europe” (propaganda everywhere) and most of the people protesting in the capital (Kiev) are from the western part that is closer to Russia, where they speak Russian and have trade relations with Russia. This seems to be the group that has support in the current government. In Kiev, signs warning that deflation will engulf the nation if they join Europe.
Ukraine is a political mess, and there is a lot that needs to be changed no doubt. It is run by a “mafia” where the police don’t even stop the big shots for speeding. Everything is corrupt and you have to bribe people in government just to get things done.
From sources directly in Kiev, the view looks like “one more revolution here” is brewing. “Hope it will bring some changes to better…”
The War Cycle turns up next year. Because Kiev was the first capital of Russia, this is really important. Ukraine is between Russia and Europe and is being torn apart. Russia’s pride is on the chopping block and this is the real center of the struggle for Russia. It is all about restoring its former glory.
We will have the Cycle of War ready shortly updating this development as this cycle turns next year as well and we can see the rising tensions are brewing everywhere. Ukraine may become the focal point with Russia smelling the blood of a weak Europe and United States. This is like the barbarians smelling the weakness of Rome and knew it was time to strike. Russia is all about restoring its national honor. The USA has weakened itself like Rome by fiscal mismanagement.
This is a special report that so many have been asking for as we head into this turning point in 2014. It is vital to understand this cycle and what it means for herein lies the fate of gold and the Dow Jones Industrials not to mention the Euro and European markets.
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Schema Frequency
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I want to thank you for saving my marriage. You got me out of gold quite some time ago and my wife was always saying that the stories of the gold pushers did not make any sense. The purpose of my question concerns your “schema frequency”. I met Jim …. who use to work for you. He said that frequency was complex and it was not incorporated in the arrays. He said it was the real model and that it was only in the computer you had that self-destructed. Is this the real secret you have guarded? Will you be elaborating on this at the upcoming conferences?
ANSWER: Yes, the Schema Frequency is not part of the Arrays. This is a totally different model altogether and was not accessible by the staff. It was highly complex and is neither a longitude wave or a transverse wave. There is a third dimension to cyclical analysis that I have safeguarded because so many dishonest people have desperately trying to get their hands on the model thinking they will make untold billions. They cannot even conceptualize this third dimension for it is truly the ultimate mind-twister.
This frequency is incredibly accurate. Its internal structure is entirely different. I will explain more at the conference. But I prefer not to write too much about this discovery. It is highly complex and yes this is what self-destructed.
Why You Cannot Trade Even With the Best Model Without Confidence
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong. my father attended your technical training seminars in Princeton during the Eighties. He always told me that if I did not understand what I was doing, no matter what model or technique I used, I would fail. He said that was the golden rule you taught back then. Does that still apply today?
Thank you;
JD
ANSWER: Absolutely. It does not matter what model you use. NOBODY will ever do what a model says blindly. During the 1987 Crash, the Brady Commission investigation revealed that most models were saying sell just before the crash. The fund managers did not believe them and did not want to sell the low. Thought there would be a rebound. There was none.
This is why it is so important to explain things from how markets really move. If you do not comprehend what you are really doing, you will not follow any model regardless of the track record.
We removed our model from the office simply because everyone thought if they could just get their hands on it, untold wealth would fall at their door. If you did not understand the model, you could not comprehend what to do. Likewise, You cannot simply hand our model to just any fund manager. Their emotions will interfere and they will over-ride what has to be done because at the extremes, people’s emotions prevent them from becoming good traders.
That is why i say I teach How To Survive Your Own Trading Decisions. I can teach you the model, but you will not be able to trade it without conviction.
The Battle Between Nominal & Virtual
QUESTION: Dear Marty,
With regard Gold, on May 2, 2103 you wrote “Don’t forget, gold has yet to test the 1980 high adjusted for inflation which standards at about $2300 level”.
On June 20, 2013 you wrote “A weekly closing beneath that level opens the door to a test of the 939.50 level”.
Your adjusted for inflation May 2 statement does make sense to me. However, if we are looking at a 939.50 low should that also be adjusted for inflation and if so, by how much?
Having asked that question, I do not remember you mentioning inflation when you predicted here in Vancouver, Canada that Gold would have to go through 256.00 before it could resume a gold-bull-market! Although this was many years ago, I thank you forever for that prediction.
ANSWER: In this upcoming report on the Dow & Real Estate, I have covered in detail the question of International Value and how it drives markets and International Capital Flows. I have stated many times that to create a REAL bull market, something must be rising in terms of ALLcurrencies. That is why there was a bubble in Japan in 1989 and the Dow for 1929. The currency and the market were rising and this attracts capital globally causing it to concentrate in that nation and sector. It is International Arbitrage. Here are the charts we illustrated back then stating gold had to break to new lows going into 1999. We achieved that requirement breaking $256 reaching $250.60 in 1999.
This chart illustrates that gold has not been the hedge against inflation. All commodities will surge rapidly playing catch up. This is how they perform that is different from currency and shares. This view of gold failing to exceed the 1980 high illustrates that it was NOT breaking out as was the case going into 1980. It will do so, but it was not ready for prime time just yet. We are in a NORMAL correction mode. It is unfortunate that there are so many Gold Promoters who harm people by spouting out total nonsense. It is simply sophistry.
Gold will not be ready for prime time as long as this sophistry is about missing gold in Fort Knox that cannot be proven, the hedge against inflation that gold does not provide looking at the Dow was 1,000 in 1980 and is now 16,000 and gold is heading lower to about 60% of the Dow. REAL money will not buy this type of crazy analysis. They want real facts that build confidence.
This is the battle between looking and trading thing in nominal terms and the world of virtual international value
Dow Has Not Broken Out Yet
Just as I have warned that gold did not breakout above the 1980 in real terms and thus it could not continue to advance, the Dow has not broken out just yet either, This is purely a nominal currency move and not yet in real terms.
Correction First Before the Rally in Stocks
QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong.
I’m a daily reader of your blog and believe you are a service to the public of the world. Thanks for all your work. My question: Is there still a minor correction coming to the stock market before it takes off toward 20K? Or are we just headed straight there?
Regards,
C
ANSWER: No. There will be a correction first, This will get the talking heads all bearish yelling how they all called the high. This will trap many people in the short-side. That is what we must see to create the surge.
Global Market Watch Dec 2nd
The Global Market Watch has been posted for the close of December 2nd, 2013.