Cycle Inversions – Critical to Understand
QUESTION: you write: could be a major protraction/cycle inverson. is this a flip flop? what happened to capitol flows? dow 21,000 possibly 31,000?
ANSWER: There MUST be a cycle inversion that takes place going into the end of this 51.6 Year Wave. If you do not understand cycles, you better start paying close attention. This is a chart of silver. It has a fixed cycle of 18 units. During the bull market, each target produced a high. Once the high was in place., the cycleINVERTS whereas what use to produce highs flips and produces lows. The target dates NEVER change – only what is produced!
We are laying this out in an important report. Cycles are moving in every market on a multi-dimensional level. In other words, there are cycles within cycles and when they converge, you get the Superposition outcome.
The year 1983 was the start of the breakout and 31.4 years warns of 2014 is important. The start of this wave was 1985 and that projects to 2016. The 2009 low also projects a normal phase reaction of 23 years and that gives us the peak of this wave in 2032.
We may see a high, with a brief correct of max 2 years, that then would complete an early cycle inversion and project out into 2032. The high on such a protracted extension would then be idealized at 40-42,000 on the Dow. These issues will be illustrated in the coming report.
There is no flip-flopping. The TIME remains unchanged. The event differsand that is simply because the thinking process must reverse.
Global Market Watch Dec 17th
The Global Market Watch has been posted for the close of December 17th, 2013.
Fed Meeting Tomorrow
The employment and growth data have improved since the last Fed meeting in October, and Congress has reached a two-year budget deal that takes them right up to 9/30/2015 perfectly in line with the ECM peak at 2015.75. Our target date has been published for years and is a straight mathematical formula. The precise day of the high is 9/30-10/1. This is simply amazing to pick the very day of the model.
Nevertheless, this sets the stage for Fed officials to contemplate making the first reduction to their $85 billion-per-month bond-buying program. It’s a tough call, but the market has been doing well and if interest rates do not rise, they realize that there will be a huge problem when the business cycle turns down. They have no room to play with rates anymore.
Some members will likely argue in favor of waiting a bit longer to make sure the numbers stay strong. However, there is another aspect that is the pure politics of the game. This will be Bernanke’s last appearance as chairman. That means, he is the lame duck and he can now do what is right and if it goes terribly wrong, the new Fed chairman can promise change.
Those who want to wait may also argue the central bank should not pull back while inflation remains below the Fed’s 2% target (The November consumer-price index showed prices up just 1.2% from a year earlier). Of course, Bernanke could just discuss the timetable at his press conference for the future, but that is kind of really lame since he will not be there to keep to any timetable.
The Wall Street gods are probably more in favor of cutting back on the stimulus that is really a non-event anyway since it is just buying the garbage from the banks. $85 billion in the total scheme of things is nothing. This has been more of a physiological game than anything significant.
When we look at the arrays for this week, they all show tomorrow as the turning point with higher volatility into the end of the week. In gold, we have been unable to close ABOVE 1243 whereas a daily closing below 1224 will point to a test of the 1206.90 level where a closing below that will point to new lows. The lack of strength in gold seems to be the market anticipating tapering. The Dow has to close ABOVE 16023 to raise any bullish hope right now. However, 15945 remains immediate resistance. A daily closing BELOW 15628 will warn of further downside is possible.
Will Stocks Be Exempt from the IMF 10% Taking in Europe
QUESTION:
Buenos dÃas Señor Armstrong,
Gracias por la información del Blog, y la visión de la economÃa.
Mi pregunta como ciudadano de un paÃs europeo, España, como se publico en distintos medios europeos el proyecto que tiene el FMI de robar de los depósitos en bancos a todos los ciudadanos de los paÃses con problemas el 10%.
¿si el capital esta invertido en acciones, estarÃa libre de la quita ? como protegerse de lo que viene? Avisara si tiene información?.
Gracias por la información del Blog, y la visión de la economÃa.
Mi pregunta como ciudadano de un paÃs europeo, España, como se publico en distintos medios europeos el proyecto que tiene el FMI de robar de los depósitos en bancos a todos los ciudadanos de los paÃses con problemas el 10%.
¿si el capital esta invertido en acciones, estarÃa libre de la quita ? como protegerse de lo que viene? Avisara si tiene información?.
Le saluda desde España, un seguidor de usted.
Saludos.
ANSWER:
Hasta ahora parece que la inversión en acciones será la mejor solución. Es posible que desee ver en la inversión en los USA para algún truco del IMF y Bruselas tendrán en su bolsa no se extenderá a los USA en este momento. Después de la crisis, a continuación, debe prestar mucha atención al mercado de US. para que luego declinar.
Todo lo mejor
Judge Holds NSA is Acting Unconstitutionally
Judge, Richard J. Leon of the Federal District Court for the District of Columbia, has ordered that the NSA collecting data on all phone calls is illegal violating the Fourth Amendment. Judge Leon was appointed to the bench in 2002 by President George W. Bush. He has stayed his injunction “in light of the significant national security interests at stake in this case and the novelty of the constitutional issues,” allowing the government time to appeal it, which he said could take at least six months, but this is something that is also likely to end up in the Supreme Court.
It is difficult to say where the Court of Appeals will land on this issue since extreme Republicans and crazy Democrats are in favor of spying on everyone. Being a terrorist today is anyone who disagrees with the government.
In my own case, the CFTC denied the company the right to hire a lawyer and then illegally argued they could seize everything because I did not answer on behalf of the company. I let them argue how they could just steal everything and then I stood before Judge Richard Owen and revealed that I too understand law and stated bluntly that the Supreme Court ruled that corporations could NOT BErepresented pro se (by themselves) and had to hire lawyers. The CFTC knew the law, but being slick, assumed I did not and tried to illegal seize everything they could get their hand on. In Osborn v. President, Directors & Co. of the Bank of the United States 22 U.S. 738 (1824), in dictum, Chief Justice Marshall stated, “It is admitted, that a corporation can only appear by attorney.” So this is nothing new but has been the law since 1824. They know what they were arguing demonstrating these people will violate the Constitution every chance they get.
When I informed the court I was not ignorant of the law and that I was not legally permitted to answer, Judge Owen went nuts because he had no choice but to rule in my favor. The CFTC was acting illegal. However, this was probably the first time Judge Owen was forced to rule against the government ever since his appointment to the bench by Richard Nixon. He blurted out – you are a “legal terrorist”, simply because I had to win. So a terrorist today is simply anyone who disagrees with government or blocks them from acting entirely arbitrarily. Like money laundering that was enacted for drug dealers, today it has been expanded to hiding money from the government preventing them from getting their hands on it for taxes. Keeping cash in a safe deposit box is now illegal and money laundering.
What the NSA has done is highly unconstitutional. The entire system demonstrates that we do NOT live in a free society because they have inverted the obligations under the law. Congress can pass a law and actually decree that like the good old days, every girl must sleep the night before her wedding with a member of Congress to ensure of course she is pure. The English tradition was called “Prima Noctum” and was used in Scotland by the English and was also used by English lords, dukes and earls who claimed the right. They could argue this was part of the common law and therefore they have the same right today since it was not expressly forbidden. There is nothing any citizen can do to stop them passing such an act. Your “standing” to file suit against the law comes only when you have a daughter to hand over. If you had only a son, you have no right to file in court. Even then they might argue you are a father and no harm would be done to you. Quite possible, only your daughter or the groom would have standing.
Hence, the government gets to pass whatever law it desires even when it flagrantly violates the Constitution. You then have the burden TO PROVE in a court of law that you even have any Constitutional right that is being denied.
If we lived in a REAL free society, government would have to FIRST test whatever law they passed in a court of law to see IF THEY CAN enforce the law under the Constitution. If you have 5 daughters but have no money, you will have to hand them over to your local Congressman because you LACK the funds to file in court to protect your family. Run off with your daughters to protect them and you are now a fugitive from the law who they could shoot on sight.
The burden in a FREE SOCIETY should be on the government – NOT YOU. There would not have been any Edward Snowden if the government had to first prove what they do is illegal. It takes someone like Snowden to reveal that they are acting secretly and illegally. This is why Snowden is an American hero yet he is called a traitor by Obama demonstrating this very point. Snowden did not betray the American people, but exposed illegal government activity to the people. Obama should have had to go to a REAL court FIRST and then go through the court system to establish his actions are Constitutional. This is ass-backwards where they get to do WHATEVER they want, and we have to prove they are corrupt, wrong, and violating our Constitutional and Human rights, and have the money to defend in court when most do not. Consequently, where is“socialism” in this respect when ONLY the rich can afford the legal fees to defend the Constitution?
We need major structural reform both economically and legally. We have to clip the wings of this eagle that tries to fly recklessly against everything that is decent.
Market Updates
Gold had a chance to at least rally and clean out some shorts, but could not close above 1243. The Dow is in the same position. We may be setting up for a MAJOR protraction of these trends for the next peak in the Economic Confidence Model 8.6 Year Wave in 2024. This implies there is the danger of a Cycle Inversion. So far, it appears we have this Jan-Feb turning point showing up in many markets globally. What makes a low at that time could rally into the next ECM turning point in 2014 warning we may then turn down into 2015.75 and flip into a rally going into 2020. We simply have to monitor the Reversals and the Cycles.
Depression Never Ends At the Same Time For Everyone
QUESTION: Hello Martin.
A few months ago you wrote:
Greek Depression Will Not End until 2020
I have explained the Golden Rule of Corrections. Once you extend in anything beyond a time unit of 3, you are then in a change in trend. The Greek recession, and most of the Western World, began in 2007. We began with the Greek Debt Crisis precisely to the day on the Pi Target from the 2007.15 high in the Economic Confidence Model. That was the 3 year mark and signaled we were beginning a serious major change in long-term trend.That means at the very least, we are looking at the first possible low being 2017 but it is more likely we will extend into a 13 year decline if the pressure is extreme pushing the low into 2020.
… Can you elaborate please when you think the global depression (Europe,USA) began ,where is the mid-cycle,and where is the end? My opinion is that it will correspond with the commodity cycle and the world depression will last till 2032.
Thanks Martin.
E from Belgium
ANSWER: A very important book is being finish right now that is part of my goal to try to get out what I have learned from running around the world with my front row seat as Milton Friedman use to tell me. Each nation entered the Great Depression and exited it at different times and this is tracked in the forthcoming book two people are editing now.
Greece will most likely exit this Depressionary cycle in 2020. I do not think that they government will endure if they were to follow the austerity measures. The risk for Greece is will it be allowed to exit the Euro. Yes, Brussels is actually a strong-arm organization that is unlikely to accept withdrawal lightly. They deliberately intervened to manipulate the Italian elections to prevent their exit from the Euro. They threatened the Greek government that wanted to put the bailout to election that there would be no bailout deal if they allowed the people to vote.
The entire Greek Debt Crisis erupted as we approached the π (Pi) Turning Point on the Economic Confidence Model 2010.29 (April 16th, 2010). Had it NOT been for the free market there would be NO check and balance.
The free market was correct from the outset for pictured here is the Greek Drachma per Euro on a weekly basis for 1999 and 2000. This shows how the Drachma fell from nearly 320 to 340.75 to the Euro in anticipation of future problems.
In the case of Greece, even if we start at 1999, the turning point for a Depression would be 23 to 26 years max. This would bring us to 2022 or 2025. Any way we look at this, Greece should be the FIRST to exit and for that reason it warrants close observation.
Greece will default on its debt and when that happens, we will see the turn in its economy. Britain exited the Great Depression when it abandoned the Gold Standard and was the first to rebound. That was an example that George Warrenused to convince FDR to devalue the dollar and it worked. Austerity is the killer for it send the value of the currency into a bubble top with purchasing power as assets turn to dust. France was the last to exist the Great Depression until they had to abandon the Gold Standard fixed high levels only after the USA.
A country-by-country analysis is required for this question and that will take up way too much space. But this will be covered in a report next year.