The Euro In Free-Fall
The Euro elected the Yearly Bearish Reversal at the 12150 area and it has penetrated the 2010 low so far of 11880 intraday reaching so far 11801. The key support lies at a set of DOUBLE WEEKLY BEARISH REVERSALS found at 11778. If we elect that this year, the Euro will fall most likely BELOW par to the 103 area. We do have Weekly Bearish Reversals at 11850 and 11640. A weekly closing below 11640 will be devastating.
This is all part of the game at foot. I have warned the dollar had to rise and this willTURN DOWN the US economy later this year. Welcome the return of volatility. The banks may be able to trade proprietary again as they technically establish internal hedge funds for their own money, yet the real problem is emerging the lack of liquidity. You can raise heaps of cash these days. But the markets are returning to their infancy – lack of participants leading to more and more illiquidity, which translates into higher volatility. Now only a weekly closing back above the 12510 area will suspend the free fall temporarily.
Politically Correct Analysis – The Lack of Freedom to Analyze
COMMENT: Marty; I was at your World Economic Conference in Berlin as was the central bank of ———. When it came to Greece, you stated back then that the projections coming from the computer would only be correct if Greece exited the euro zone. You have made statements nobody in the professional industry are even allowed to mention for political reasons. You are indeed the lone voice with any experience and credibility. Your call on the collapse of the euro was stunning. I went out with guys on the crack of 120 for a drink. We toasted your call with Scotch in your honor.
Again, not a single bank could ever forecast such an event for political reasons. You are the most read in the financial world. The trading desks love you. No matter what the institution, we all read you. Upper management hate you. That is the love-hate relationship you have with the world. Congrats on great fantastic calls, not to mention oil and gold.
Cheers mate
KW
REPLY: Yes this is the real problem. There is no freedom of speech when it comes to analysis. The big houses are worthless for analysis because it must be politically correct. Not being allowed to say Greece will be forced to leave the Euroland, which is basic economic analysis is outrageous. The big firms will not allow their analysts to even utter such words for fear they will piss-off Brussels. That will of course not prevent Greece from leaving or the Euro from collapsing.
The Euro is Dead. Normally you would say long-live the dollar. But that too will have its day soon. For now, the dollar will rise and create such vertigo, we need this move to create the economic chaos the other side of 2015.75.
Republicans Lay Seeds to Destroy Their Own Party – John Boehner’s Revenge
John Boehner secured his third term as speaker losing 25 votes on the House floor to really unknown members of the Republican Conference. Boehner is one of the most corrupt and ruthless politicians in Washington. This is not a very nice guy. I reported previously that he threw anyone off of any financial committee who supported the tea party or Ron Paul. Boehner also prevented Ron Paul’s name from even being nominated at the Republican Convention. He is a very spiteful and highly revenge seeking individual Boehner quickly has moved to oust two of the insurgents from the influential Rules Committee who voted against him. This guy is capable of destroying the Republican Party and is indeed fulfilling our model that 2016 will be the strong showing of third-party candidates. Boehner is anything but respectful of criticism.
Boehner is always about revenge and paybacks. He will target all his betrayers, who would otherwise see subcommittee chairmanships and other perks be handed to only his supporters. He acts more like a king than the leader of a party. Boehner wants dictatorship and he abuses his position to threaten and coerce anyone who is against his ruthless style of politics. Therein lies our downfall of the United States. We have no hope of reform with people like this in Washington.
The Fool’s Game
COMMENT: Marty, I believe I understand what you are saying about belief. There is no right or wrong, it is just the market. I can see you are correct. Markets move on anticipation as the euro is collapsing ahead of the anticipated Greek elections. Trying to argue with the markets being wrong is a fool’s game. The markets are always right even if the fundamentals make no sense.
Brilliant.
Good on ya.
NCB
REPLY: That is exactly the point. Only a fool tries to claim they are right even when the market moves against them. There can be no wrong or right for the market always wins. Blame is a fool’s game. I love these people who try so desperately to show I am wrong on some move so they can justify being wrong all the time in their view. These are people who will die penniless for they cannot see the big picture and have no interest in reforming their view – exactly like politicians. They will defend their belief to the death and consider no possibility of error.
Those terrorists who blow themselves up expecting 73 virgins are weak-minded individuals who have been sold a belief they want to believe. They want to believe in something so bad because they have nothing else in life. This is a human condition that afflicts so many in markets as well. No matter what you show them, they are MARRIED to an idea and will never change and attack anyone who says they are wrong. That is just the fate of so many people within society regardless of what the concept might be.
Unfortunately, this is why they become the masses who must be slaughtered to create the panic. There are three key groups:
- The common people who act based upon what they experience
- The self-anointed “sophisticated” participant who marries an idea
- The “professional” who follows traditional analysis because that is what they were told
Then there is the enlightened group, which stands-back and observes, willing to change and go with the flow. If you look at politics, presidential election show this group who swing back and forth and are their own objective mind fluctuates between 5% to 13% since no president has ever captured more than about 63% of the popular vote. Effectively, about 45% are democrat and 45% are republican and no matter what you say to show them they are wrong is simply rejected and will never be considered. They are married to a concept and that ends all discussion or debate.
Hence, you are correct. People who want to immediately blame someone are just fools for they are incapable of ever growing into an enlightened mind. They will remain stagnant captured by a belief they cannot and will not ever consider is just wrong. The world is wrong – never them.