China to Impose Fee of Cancelled Orders
China is taking a unique approach to regulating markets. They are looking to impose a tax or fee per order to prevent traders from flooding exchanges with orders they don’t fill by charging market participants fees for habitual cancellations. This scheme would not take effect until 2017. This is clearly targeting the high-frequency traders. This proposed new legislation has been behind the sell-off today.
Is the Recession Starting?
The ISM purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector in December 2015 in the USA has plummeted to its lowest level since June of 2009. This warns that the U.S. economy is entering a recession that is in line with the forecast of the ECM and the rise in the dollar.
However, keep in mind that this is simultaneously coming with the changing technology trend. By that, we mean that low-level jobs are being replaced rapidly by automated computers, in part, because of Obamacare and its Draconian tax burden upon business exceeding 25 employees. Therefore, unemployment will rise due to this expansion in technology and raising the minimum wage will accelerate that trend further.
In business, inventories are also shrinking as companies move to “just in time” methods by using technological advancements to minimize carried inventory. This trend is only further accelerated by the banks moving toward transactional banking where they are no longer interested in relationship banking. This also reduces the availability of loans for small business as banks do not want the risk.
The convergence of these trends will feel the recession ahead. Eventually, this will materialize in rising unemployment, a deepening crisis in student loans, and the fiscal mismanagement of governments demanding more and more taxes which will become a toxic cocktail of doom.
The ultimate rise in stocks in the years ahead (after a correction sling-shot move) will unfold simply as capital tries to secure its future by getting out of government bonds and banks.
Dow & the Immediate Outlook
QUESTION: Marty, at the WEC you said the Dow would go down in the first quarter. How far do you see this going this time?
ANSWER: We elected a monthly Bearish Reversal at year-end and closed lower than 2014. The main support starts down at the 15850 level followed by 15370. We can see even technically the stochastics are showing a correction is forming and we lost the upward momentum. A monthly closing beneath that level will confirm a deeper correction. Many people expect the stock market to decline with higher interest rates domestically while others see an uptick in U.S. rates as a kiss of death to emerging markets which would be bad for the world economy as a whole. Keep in mind that these are likely to put a bullish spin on the dollar, fueling the deflationary spiral for now. I have stated that this is critical to understand the future.
We have initial support forming at the 16886 level and a weekly closing below that will confirm a continued decline. Our daily models warn of important support starting at 16930.
Volatility should rise into next week and we have a slew of Directional Changes in a row on the Weekly level, warning of a very choppy market ahead into early February.
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