Crude – What Lies Beneath $30 & Where Will Resistance Stand Here After
Right now, the fear has been that Iran will start dumping oil now that the sanctions have been lifted. Thus, crude has been falling out of bed in a nightmare scenario. The fact that Crude was below $35 and then rallied to close above it for the 2015 year-end closing was a warning that the long-term may not be as bearish as it appears at first glance. Crude still elected a year-end sell signal at $41. So that meant lower lows. But our other two numbers were $35 and $25. Breaking $30 certainly focuses our attention on the $25 level as support on a system basis. Technically, the $25 area is also showing up as support during January.
Cyclically, this collapse in price has been on target since our timing projections have been January, March, and June here in early 2016. We have warned that 2016 was the target for at least the intraday low.
When we start to look at what the computer is projecting in time, indeed 2016 is a Directional Change. It appears choppy until about 2018. From there out into 2022 to 2023/2024, which will be the next top in the Economic Confidence Model, we see a sharp rise in volatility. This is lining up with two primary factors – WAR and aMONETARY CRISIS.
So for now, we should focus on the $24-$25 area as the next psychological support zone. Our two key areas of target support for 2016 are $25 and $16. Looking forward, we employed our WHAT IF models to try to forecast where theYearly Bullish Reversal (buy signal) will be generated from a low at either position in 2016. Interesting enough, in both scenarios, we end up with $40-$41.50. This will clearly become the major resistance moving forward. It does not appear that crude will ever make new intraday highs. It must fight against a dollar rally which appears to be still on the horizon and a shift to electric cars.
Refugee Crisis is Tearing Europe Apart
The Cologne police are now defending themselves and reveal that they brought the problem of the refugees to Mayor Reker. Politicians are simply trying to cover up their mistakes at the expense of increasing the danger to the citizens of Europe and particularly Germany.
I personally know one refugee in a camp who was from the Eastern part of Ukraine. He has informed me that he is the ONLY European in a camp. Everyone is from North Africa. These people are of a totally different culture and religion, lack any skills, and cannot speak the language. This is becoming just insane.
Germany Sending Refugees back to Austria
Germany has sent back to Austria without any warning the latest group of refugees.The Austrians are at a loss what to do. A spokesman for the province of Upper Austria said: “From Germany it would be only fair that they would say that the welcome culture is finished.” The problem is that Merkel cannot publicly state that she was wrong.
There is NO HOPE of finding jobs for all these refugees in Germany. It’s exports to Russia have collapsed by about 50% thanks to the sanctions. Then Russia’s economy shrank in 2015 as a combination of sanctions and the collapse in commodities creating a very dangerous cocktail. The official German unemployment is under 5%. If we now include unemployable refugees, this number will soar.
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