The fascinating aspect of environment is this unprecedented bias that
somehow humankind has altered the planet climate. Why these scientists
do not try to see if such a trend is natural and extends back before
1900 is just mind-numbing. Some scientists are now sounding the alarm
bells that a record-setting area of cold water which has been discovered
in the North Atlantic. This record cold spot was recently discovered by
the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data, which
is indeed in line with our models warning that we are in for not global
warming, but a deep freeze.
The energy output of the sun is in crash mode and historically this
300 year cycle has marked the rise and fall of empires. With all the
invasion of people from the Middle East into Europe, there is no
housing. They have filled up stadiums and most have tents. The winter
will be very cold and many may even die from exposure. Migration
patterns should be south, not north. This is a serious problem from a
historical perspective. It is also why we are moving our offices south.
If not, the computer may leave on its own.
This trend will have a very dramatic consequence with regard tio
weather both for Europe and North America. When the water turns cold, so
does the climate. The
Washington Post reporter
Chris Mooney reported the
thesis on Thursday from many scientists, pointing out a cold blob in
the ocean south of Greenland and Iceland. This has confused many for
while people are still looking at global warming, the North Atlantic
cold spot is lesser known. It is seen below in the dark hue denoting
“record coldest” temperatures.
If
we just take 2015.75 and move back in time in 309.6 year intervals, we
come not only to the periods when the climate turned very cold, we also
come to the periods of the political changes in government. The 1700s
market the start of the uprising against monarchy. The 1396 period
market the beginning of capitalism with the Black Death killing about
50% of the European population. The year 777 was the start of Saxon
invasions and Charlemagne beginning to consolidate Europe once again
forming nation states. The previous cycle was the fall of Rome. These
changes in climate have coincided with political changes. The climate
shift to very cold places tremendous stress upon the people and
starvation begins to rise.
Unfortunately, this is not caused by man driving his cars to work. We
are dealing with a very serious change in climate that is entirely
natural. No amount of regulation or raising taxes, which academics and
government will argue for, will reverse this trend for we did not create
it. This is simply the result of a thermodynamic system we call the
sun.
The speculation is heated as NASA has called an important and urgent
press conference with respect to discoveries made on Mars on Monday,
September 28th. The announcement to be made by
NASA is supposed to solve the mystery of Mars. Everyone is expecting the discovery of biological life in some form.
The Blood Moon is a total lunar eclipse which ends up with a
copper-red color. This event will be special since it is the fourth in a
series of the rare events with an 18-month period which began last
April. The September 28 “Supermoon” eclipse will last some 72 minutes,
reaching totality at 03:47 (BST). This is 2 days before the turn in the
Economic Confidence Model. Why it correlated to this 5000 year low in
interest rates and the bubble in government confidence who knows. But it
indeed lines up. Just another very interesting aspect for this
particular turn 2015.75.
The 1985 World Economic Conference
Back in 1985 we warned that the sovereign debt crisis would emerge
and start to really surface for 2015.75. Why this date was forecast so
far back? This is Pi – 31.4 years into this Private Wave which began
1985.65.
At the 1998 World Economic Conference, we put out this slide with the
sequence of events. One question people often ask is how on earth can
we make long-term forecasts like this. Such forecasts are only possible
with a vast data base. Without that, you cannot even begin. So for all
those who are trying to copy our forecasts the real question is – how
did they do this without data?
The
revelation in forecasting is opposite of what most people assume. They
think it is impossible to forecast the long-term and assume the
short-term can be done by monitoring fundamental events. The truth is
quite shocking. Forecasting the long-term tends to be much easier than
forecasting where the Dow will close tomorrow. Why? The short-term is
just noise, yet it gets everyone wound up. Every $20 rally in gold
brings out the charlatans claiming this time it is it. In reality, the
trend cannot be manipulated nor changed even by government for the
collective forces of the free market will always win. Even Paul Volcker,
former Chairman of the Fed put out his
“Rediscovery of the Business Cycle”
stating this simple fact – the era of “new economics”
(Marxist-Keynesianism) which claimed government could eliminate
recessions and the business cycle failed.
Then there was Arthur Burns, the Fed Chairman who presided over the
birth of the floating exchange rate monetary system in 1971. He too
wrote that the business cycle was really INVICTUS (invincible). Yet
despite all the behind the curtain admitting that the Free Market always
wins, the press, academics in general, and government constantly tell
you there is no cycle and you cannot forecast the future so do not
listen. Then they immediately forecast strong economic growth the
following year.
So the real question should be; Why does the establishment
(government, academics & press) tell you it is impossible when this
is not the case? Even Volcker stated the business cycle was about 8
years. The plain and simple truth is they do not want you to think there
is a business cycle for then why do we need them? All they attempt to
do is manipulate the people to defeat the business cycle, which
NOBODY HAS EVER ACCOMPLISHED EVEN ONCE LONG-TERM.
Well, 2015.75 is next week. Long-term forecasts are far more accurate
than short-term because you cannot defeat the trend no matter what you
do.
It’s Just Time. You cannot make up such forecasts
with personal opinion no matter how so many are trying mimic us with
nothing but opinion. It takes a database and you will only see the trend
by correlating everything that moves. One Asian government understands
this perhaps best than the West and offered $500 million for a copy of
what we have.
When we say we have the largest database, it is no joke. Debt has
always been the great destroyer. It has toppled every empire known to
history. We have compiled debt along with currency movements back into
ancient times as well as catalogued ancient financial panics as was the
case in
Athens back in 354BC.
Above is a chart of the Venetian Empire based upon the gold Ducat and
it lasted also hundreds of years. Gold did not prevent its demise
either.
We have tracked debt and interest rates from the core to the
peripheral economies to understand capital concentration. When capital
concentrates, interest rates decline in that region. This demonstrates
how the financial capital of the world even migrates with time.
We have used the coinage to determine money supply. Since coin dies
were hand-carved, each is unique. Taking someone with modern dies and
having them strike coins with a hammer to see how many coins can be
produced before a die will break gives us an average. Then cataloging
all the known dies results in the money supply.
We have
mapped everything
from the birth of coinage during the 7th century BC on through Greece,
Rome, and Byzantium. With the fall of Byzantium, the financial capital
shifted to India as a region. India was not a unified country, but city
states that also engaged in conquest and warfare. Just how do these
people pretending to be forecasting a great crash arrive at such an
“opinion” without a database? They do not understand what we are
forecasting and are incapable of projecting even the turning points from
a gut opinion perspective.
We have assembled “imitation” Roman coinage from the outer trading
partners. We can see Roman coins were being imitated in India even back
into the earliest part of the Imperial era. Yet the history of Rome that
claimed to rule the world (
orbis terrarum)
stood at the opposite end of the world from the strikingly similar Han
Dynasty (206BC-220AD) in China, which also claimed to have ruled the
world (
tianxia). There is the History Book for
Tang-Dynasty in China covering the period 618-907AD. Yet the text
mentions 17 times what appears to be the Roman Empire . It also
describes an envoy that was sent by the Roman Emperor to China. The
Roman Emperor was recorded to have been “
Anton” or Marcus Aureius Antoninus. The account of such an envoy who visited the older Han Dynasty predates the Venetian traveler
Marco Polo (1254-1325) by more than 1,000 years. We have assembled trade flows – everything we could lay our hands on has been collected.
So as we approach 2015.75, you can see this trend changing. This is a
5000 year low in interest rates showing the excessive hoarding and
concentration of capital in the West. We can also see the debt crisis is
unfolding, not just with Greece, but now we are seeing downgrades of
France and Japan last week. The trend is so obvious and concentrated in
our debt problems as emerging markets have issued since 2007 dollar
denominated debt about half that of the entire debt of the United
States. We are seeing economic chaos unfold in Brazil and Venezuela. The
insane construction of the euro has undermined the entire European
banking system and the solution of the
ECB, hide the truth.
We have the US debt ceiling coming up the very day of the turning
point in the USA and this time religion is involved. This has led in
part to the resignation of Boehner for he has deliberately funded
efforts to defeat anyone within the Republican Party who stood for
fiscal conservatism. Then we have Trump rising in the poles because he
is not beholding to anyone else.
As 2015.75 emerges, we will move into the Pi target from the start of
the Economic Confidence Model 1985.65. This will bring us to January
2017 (2017.05). This is also the target on the Cycle of War. The
correlation between our models for 2017 will be the topic for the World
Economic Conferences in Princeton & Berlin. We will have two years
ahead of us and 2015.75 is just the
BEGINNING – NOT THE END WITH SOME ONE TIME CRASH EVENT. This is a major change in trend of monumental proportion.
Meanwhile, Christine
Lagarde of the IMF came out to state today also on the turning point of
the ECM that the rate of economic growth this year will probably be
weaker than in 2014. I had a meeting in Europe with a former board
member of the IMF and we had some very frank discussions. To put it
mildly, they are indeed worried. The inflation rate for Euroland just
turned NEGATIVE again.
