Wednesday, February 4, 2015

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S LATEST BLOG POSTS

Obamacare House Passes Repeal – Supreme Court Could Overrule it by June

ObamaCare-CadillacTax
While the Democrats are ranting that 8 million people will be thrown off of healthcare with the repeal of Obamacare as the House voted 239-186 to repeal this nightmare, it would have been far cheaper to just add those people to medicare than change everyone in the country of more than 300 million people. The hospitals and doctors wanted Obamacare and lobbied for it because there were people that had to service without payment. They did not support this law for humanitarian reasons.
Under the Affordable Care Act  (Obamacare), millions of Americans have signed up for private health insurance and for Medicaid, however exactly how many remains unclear. Nevertheless, to listen to the extreme left-wing TV commentators on MSNBC, one would think the world will end without Obamacareas if this has benefited the entire nation.
King v. Burwell, like the Halbig v. Burwell case, has a long history in the nation’s court system. On July 22, two U.S. courts delivered opposite rulings on the subsidies contained inObamacare. Legal scholars and health policy experts have warned that the case is the biggest legal threat against Obamacare since 2012, when the Supreme Court upheld most provisions of the law. It is the last case scheduled for the court’s next period.
The Supreme Court’s decision to hear the King v. Burwell case exposes a potential weakness in Obamacare. Here the Supreme Court will consider whether the Internal Review Service has the authority to expand the application of healthcare subsidies to federal exchanges. The subsidies are a key tool used under the law to drive individuals onto the government exchanges. Without the subsidies, fewer individuals would chose to purchase the government-mandated plans. Many many people lost their healthcare because of Obamacare – me included. My insurance virtually doubled in price under Blue Cross all because I was not covered for paternity leave. I had to start paying a portion of medicine bills for my 96 year-old mother that I did not previously.
Obamacare-33000Nonetheless, only 14 states and the District of Columbia established state-based exchanges and even some of those (Oregon and Nevada) are backing out for 2015. In the remainder of states with exchanges, the federal government, not the state governments, established the exchanges. These tax subsidies for low-income Americans are only available, through an Exchange established by a State under section 1311 of Obamacare. Federal exchanges are set up under Section 1321 of Obamacare – not Section 1311. Hence, the administration still wants to provide subsidies, even though the law doesn’t appear to authorize the handout. And there lies the problem to be decided by the Supreme Court. You would figure with a 7ft high bill, they would have got at least that correct..
American healthcare has been morphing from a function of a humanitarian society into a revenue stream for healthcare profits. Drug, medical device companies, hospitals, and insurance companies, are all in the business for profits and they all supportedObamacare because their profits would rise – not fall. Then there is the legal profession that controls Congress. There is no prayer in hell of lawyers instituting caps on tort claims that drive insurance rates even higher.
Doctors will often order tests they do not feel they need just to cover their ass against the lawyers. In effect. we have transformed healthcare in the U.S. into an industry whose goal is to be profitable not some humanitarian pursuit as the Democrats claim. We have to call a spade a spade and stop pretending this is about caring for anyone. Obamacare was upheld by the Supreme Court as a tax, not as a social program.

Overall State of the Union – Unbiased Economics

ECM-Wave-2011-2020
As we move into 2015.75, American job losses during the Great Recession 2007-2011 have been erased, but long-term joblessness remains much higher than when Obama first took office following the 2008 election. When we look at corporate profits and stock prices, they have continued to set records, while workers’ wages remain stagnant and the home ownership rate continues to decline.
The definition of the “rich” has become anyone who has investment income. Home ownership has declined since mortgages generally now want 20% down and taxes have risen. Of course, the socialists say this is not fair and the rich are getting richer yet this is not income from wages, but rather investment. The gains go predominantly to mutual funds and pensions not to mention foreign investment since retail participation has also declined since the Great Recession. This means the yelling and screaming is by no means reflecting a purely domestic situation. Furthermore, had Congress privatized Social Security long ago, then those funds would have been invested in the stock market so the very people they say are not participating would have a stake in the economy.
The number of food-stamp recipients has retreated from the record high of 2012 following the ECM wave and indeed there are fewer beneficiaries today than what had been added under George W. Bush. This is simply the business cycle in motion and it is not related to either side of politics. We should see this rise between 2015.75 and 2020.05.
Under Obama, federal spending has risen more slowly than the rate of inflation. But the total debt owed to the public has nearly doubled during Obama’s tenure, and large annual deficits are projected to continue as far as the eye can see with interest rates historically low. When rates rise to chase the rise in share prices set in motion by inflow of international capital, the deficit should rise much more rapidly.
Obama has been rather upset that the handgun production rose 128% during his first term, and sales continue to boom. He has instructed the DOJ to black-ball gun stores and has tried to buy all ammunition to prevent people from arming themselves.

How to Survive

HowToSurvive
I have received a number of emails from people who have lost it all for faulty investment advice and then personal tragedies. Without repeating their stories, which are rather personal, this is a common sense approach.
Go with whatever interests you. That is the key. Whatever you find interesting you will be the best at and succeed. Education is really worthless anyhow for just look at politicians. They could not manage a bubble gum machine fiscally. They would spend whatever change came in, lack funds to refill it, and then go and steal a new supply from someone else and start all over again repeating the same nonsense.
Street smarts is far better. The most successful creators left college and created major companies with an idea. Build it and they will come. Be the best you can be and in the end that is the key to success. School will never teach you how to do that. This is something you have to feel your way through. Those who pinch-pennies trying to squeeze everything out of every deal then and there, will never rise to the top. They are transaction oriented and cannot see the long-term if you smack them in the face 10 times.
Fortuna-2
Look for an area that you could be self-employed. That may be the best stability in the future for relying on a big corporation or government may be a rude awakening. Be aware that the odds are society will move toward authoritarianism. This is a steam-roller that is going to be hard to stop. Those in power will blame the rich, bankers, and the definition of the “rich” is not salary income, it is investment income. Just be aware that this is the historical course with the highest probability.
Can we change that course? Well the Roman goddess Fortuna was appropriately portrayed – in one arm the cornucopia and all the benefits of life and freedom. The other hand she holds the rudder of a ship symbolizing she can change course on a whim. She was a very appropriate representation of the future. As they still say to this day in Italian - buona fortuna (good luck).

Yes it is Scary – But Necessary

StormingCastle
COMMENT: Hi Martin,
Once again, thank you for all the information you provide on a daily basis.  It is informative as well as scary at the same time.  I’m afraid you are preaching to the hard headed.  Here in Canada, people truly believe in government and socialist ideologies.  It is amazing to see that they do not understand that government incompetence and debt is the real problem.  They blame the corporations and the “1%” for not “paying their fair share.”  No matter what is said, we here in Canada, want more social assistance and government to help us out.  Consider the Liberal party in Ontario was re-elected, even though they wasted billions of dollars on boondoggles, and now they want to implement an Ontario pension plan where they take 1.4% from your paycheck and another 1.4% from the employer to put into a government run pension.  We only know where that will end up.
Anyway, I would like to thank you for what you are doing but I’m afraid it is too late as socialism has been ingrained from birth through education.
D
History-Repeat
REPLY: This is the source of the civil unrest. The bankers should sleep with armed guards because this is the type of people who will drag them from their beds in the middle of the night when they realize all is lost in their pensions as they listen to politicians blame the 1% for their failures. The politicians will NEVER admit they do not know how to manage anything. It is always that 1% who do not pay enough rather than their lack of management skills. Society has been rising up against the bankers in every society as government. Even looking at the rule of law, in China they dragged the chief justice out in his robs and killed him on the sport for always ruling in favor of the government many years ago. Riots against bankers even go back to ancient time as well as in the Middle Ages as the people burned the bankers homes in Florence during the 14th century.
I know what I write can be scary. But my hope is to identify the problem or when the crash and burn comes we will go in that direction of communism by a different name seizing all property and handing it to government. Maybe we are condemned to just watch others repeat the same mistakes over and over again. Maybe we should all take a rock and meet in the Caribbean and start our own island where we can hide from the crazies that will rule the world.
Florence Revolt ciompi
The same set of circumstances come up repeatedly. The history of Florence comes to mind that illustrates how people will respond to similar events.In Florence, there was the Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 that was an insurrection involving the lower classes that seized the government and created the most dynamic democratic government that would ever exist in Florence. The Ciompi were the wool carders who were the most radical of all the groups and were largely acting out of the same philosophies that were later adopted by Karl Marx in the 19th Century.
Florence-Revolt-1343

The Rise of the Florentines against the Duke of Athens, 1343 by Luigi Sabatelli

There is little doubt that this Revolt of the Ciompi of 1378 erupted from the building of tensions which had been accumulating over a 51.6 year period. The Political-Economic Revolt of 1343 was over the corruption in government against the Duke of Athens and the rising unemployment thanks to the financial ruin of many of the smaller merchant-banks as well as the Peruzzi who were effectively bankrupt by 1343 – one of the most famous bankers. Then there was the Worker’s Uprising of 1346-1347 which was caused also by the rising unemployment thanks to the French Debasement that caused coinage to be hoarded shrinking the money supply and the famine of 1346 that caused great social unrest.
Against this backdrop came the Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 once again concerning unemployment that was manifesting into demands for what we would call today, labor unions, or in those days, the right to form guilds.Without question, this economic period of about 52 years in Florence was one of a deepening economic spiral downward. The Revolt of the Ciompi came about 34 years after the first Political-Economic Revolt of 1343. The revolt began in June 1378 and ran through July. The people petitioned the courts and the executive council (Signoria) in Florence. They were demanding equitable fiscal city policy and to expand their right to form guilds to workers who had been previously excluded. Clearly, this was the beginning of a Marxist philosophy that we will see rise again during the 19th Century.The government and the courts turned their back of the demands for justice. On July 22nd, 1378, the lower classes stormed the government and seized all the government officials. They installed a wool carder by the name Michele di Lando as the chief judge – gonfaloniere of justice. As always, the courts failed to act fairly which only ensure there would be the alternative to force that we now run the risk with our 98%+ conviction rate. Even the French Revolution began with Bastille Day – storming the prison.
Once the courts become biased and corrupt ruling only in favor of the government, they fuel the seeds of revolution leaving the people with no choice. The rule of law is so critical for once it collapses, revolution follows. The Florence government was now controlled by the guilds that was the first time in Florentine history for such an event. The Ciompi were now raised to the status of a guild. Effectively, this became similar to the American Revolution demanding representation on behalf of the Ciompi.
The Ciompi were not a guild and were part of what was considered to be the lowest of the low, and the roughest of all citizens. The wool had to be washed, then cleansed using scissors, beaten, and then carded or combed. These were typically not guild workers in the shop, but were paid by the pound. They were the rowdy lot who were often cheated by the wool merchants paying them in clipped coin. They were the people who used muscle possessing no real skill of value.
One of the demands besides a fair wage, they wanted steady employment. There were 275 workdays at that time, so it was not a complaint of being forced to work long hours with no time off. This was a reflection of the lack of steady work that was arising to a larger extent thanks to the Black Death that naturally reduced the market for finish products. The work day was from sunrise to sunset, but the beaters and carders were hired on a day to day basis, and could work at home. The guilds were strong enough so that night work was forbidden. The silk workers and velvet makers were higher skilled than the woolen industry. Therefore, the Revolt of the Ciompi of 1378 was clearly a uprising due to unemployment and the lack of work rather than being over-worked. This was a profound problem with the sharp drop in demand caused by theBlack Death.
Time-Tracks
As the economy continues to implode and unemployment rises, this will be a tremendous driving force behind the civil unrest. Add to this the decline in pensions and we have a serious problem. Yes it is scary. However, if you are standing on a train track and the train is roaring toward you but you are too busy listening to your iPod, would you want me to say hey – get off the tracks?

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