UK & Swiss Markets v Euroland
The London FTSE is closer to the USA in pattern than the rest of Europe. We see a consolidation pattern crawling along resistance levels. Our Energy models are showing it is running into resistance short-term, but we are not yet and the culmination of the trend.
When we look at the European major share market on a long-term fractal basis, we can see the broader trend much more sharply.The Swiss and London do not appear to be in a dangerous position long-term. The London market appears that it will still provide some safety within Europe. This is most likely due to the fact that it is not denominated in euros. The same can be said for the Swiss market, but that does not appear to be as strong as the FTSE. Distinctly, we are seeing a pattern that demonstrates a decline in confidence insofar as Brussels is able to manage anything,
Now let us look at the DAX. Here our energy models clearly reflect the going ons within Europe how everyone within the Euroland has been shifting to Germany as the hedge against the Euro. For this reason, it certainly appears that we may reach an important high within Euroland before we do in the Swiss or UK markets. We will focus on this interesting contrast at the WEC.
ISIS The Counter Crusades?
Trying to understand an opponent is typically difficult because the bottom line is the vast majority of people judge others by themselves. The key to comprehending the world and even markets for that matter, it never turns on what you think, but on what they think. This is why I also say it’s never a bull market in anything until it rises in terms of ALL currencies since everyone will act out of their own self-interest.
The rhetoric coming from ISIS is propaganda set in motion by its leaders to fill the minds of those who follow. Like a hard line Democrat or Republican, no matter what you say, you will never convert them to the opposite view. They believe what they want to believe and that is it. Facts will NEVER change their mind. This is the same. The people running away from their countries to joinWANT to believe they are the oppressed victims of always some sinister group. The propaganda is what they WANT to hear for its satisfies their belief system.
Reports are coming out that ISIS wants to invade Europe. This is total insanity, but it is out there, It appears this is the hype to build their forces even more. Unfortunately, when the economy turns down after 2015.75, things are going to get really bad. Even in the USA, more than the Census Bureau has reported that 30.3% Millennials are still living with their parents. The unemployment among the youth (under 25) in Europe is over 60%. As the economy turns down, we are looking at things getting much worse all because government is destroying the economy. We are is BIG CRUNCH economically and this is DEFLATION. This creates a reservoir for armies like ISIS.
Gold Made it Cycle Inversion – It is What it Is
QUESTION: I do not know what is the accuracy of your model for the long term. If I’m correct, your model functions “like” the weather forecasting models, every new information is integrated to refine the results.
My question is, it is possible that the real move for gold only became possible in 2017?
If the value (not price) of gold is correlated with confidence in Governement it will gain value when the trust is compromised.
If we see a rise of 3rd parties in 2016, we can assume the masses still have confidence in the system and have a little hope for change, and that will not last for ever
ANSWER: Strangely enough, the longer-term tends to be fixed. It is precisely opposite of what you surmise. It is the short-term that tends to be more noise so any refining unfolds in the short-term of the spectrum for the trend is the trend. It really does not matter if you peak on some reaction rally one week or the next. It is still just a counter-trend reaction. Hence the long-term does not change. This is actually proof that those claiming gold is systemically manipulated are completely wrong. Absolutely NOTHING can be manipulated against the trend. When there was the silver manipulation, we came out and warned they were going to take silver to $7 in 3 months and then crash it. That was the short-term which did not change the long-term for silver then resumed the decline and made new lows. Of course to the promoters, nothing to the upside is a manipulation, only to the downside. This is why I do not trust them for they seem to be talking the markets up and then claim they would be correct except for the manipulation.
Gold has completed its cycle inversion. It bottomed in 1985 and then peaked in 1987 with the ECM. Ever since, it had to invert relative to the ECM as we moved into a Private Wave. The fact that we achieved the high in 2011 with the low in the ECM demonstrates that gold is starting to shape up as the hedge against government. Gold’s rally took off only after the ECM turned down from 2007. Of course you has the promoters touting QE1-3 confusing everyone for gold rallied ONLY because people questioned the survival of the system including banks. It had absolutely nothing to do with money supply, no gold in Fort Knox, manipulations, or how trading gold in Shanghai would be “real” and the NY COMEX “paper” world would collapse. Every possible bullshit story came rolling out and buried a lot of people with significant financial losses. Had they been stock brokers putting out that unsupported claims, they would have gone to prison for 20 years for fraud. It is a wonder there is not some class-action suit against some of these huxters.
Gold is now perfectly in line with the ECM so far and that means it should have declined into 2015.75. It should turn up ONLY as people begin to question government not QE4-6. Gold is the hedge against government – not changes in money supply that fail to relate to inflation.
The goldbugs just bad mouth me all the time because to them if something does not go up every day there is some dark sinister force which attacks only them. They are not traders for the will never say sell or take a profit. They distort standard trading against clients that the bankers do against everyone in every market as perpetual systemic manipulation to keep gold down otherwise it would be anywhere from $10,000 to $50,000 depending on which promoter you listen to.
What was the last one? Gold would rise to $10,000 by the end of 2014 in three months? You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you cannot turn all of society into fools. Sooner or later, people wake up. They hurt a lot of people with this kind of nonsense and they turn serious people off for their foolishness. To me, they whip everyone up into buying so the banks can sell to them. Then they say they are not wrong its manipulation so buy more. Then why trade something that can never move higher?
It seems like someone is being paid under the table to put out bogus research just as the bankers got caught on the DOT.COM bubble in 2003. There is something just not right. We never sell client names and we do not send spam trying to sell dreams and we are not like the Global Warming people crying we have to save something so donate funds to us to make the world better.
It is what it is. When gold turns on our models, then real investors will come back because they also know we will say sell. This is not about proving some theory that does not stand the test of time. This is about surviving what is coming. To buy something or sell something for the wrong reason destroys confidence and without that, nobody buys. Those who really believe in gold should be mad as hell about these people who reduce the credibility of the precious metals in the eyes of the majority.
Are we headed into a European Equity Bubble?
Our Energy models are warning that the European markets are getting overdone. We have to pay very close attention to Europe for the share markets may not advance and this could send even more capital fleeing to the USA.
Everyone has been buying the bunds and the Dax inside Europe assuming that when the Euro cracks they will get Dmarks. But Merkel is not ready to dump the Euro. In fact, it may be over her dead body. She believes that Germany needs the Euro to export to the rest of Europe. The fact that her austerity is killing Europe she does not see as the issue. So there is no way to make her blink. The only way to do that will be to sell Germany and buy the dollar assets. Caution is the word. We may see a different pattern unfold entirely.
During the last Sovereign Debt Crisis, Europe all peaked in advance of the USA. We are likely to see the same outcome initially this time.