Greeks will NOT Negotiate with the Troika Just EU, ECB, & IMF?
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Politicians are the same everywhere. The new Greek government will now negotiate but they will not by any means do so with the hated Troika. Instead, they will only negotiate with the representatives of the EU, the ECB and the IMF (= sum in the Troika). They will negotiate restructuring Greek debt. That means a haircut for Greek debt holders.
Plagiarism Risks Everything
COMMENT: Marty, it is amazing that you seem to be the major source for trends and ideas. You may be the most plagiarized analyst or forecaster in history. You come out and say there will be an economic downturn from October and heads of states start saying this like David Cameron. Then you write that this will be the worst downturn in hundreds of years and others pretending to be analysts without the historical depth amazingly come out and say the same thing. Then within two days of you writing that Greece must move to a two-tier currency restoring the drachma, astonishing other analysts write the same thing. You said there would be a dollar rally and exposed the massive new dollar debt by emerging countries. It was no shock to suddenly read that view in claimed round-tables which did not appear until you explained where all the dollars went from QE1-3. You and your computer do influence the world. I can see this easily reading the media yet at the same time they all try to pretend you do not exist and this is miraculously their original thought without the database. I suppose this must emerge from spontaneous combustion.
REPLY: Well, this is about trying to save society from the clutches of authoritarianism. It may fall flat on its face. Perhaps I will have to run to a deserted beach or build a tree house deep in the woods praying to escape from this insane world. You cannot alter the trend. At the vest best, all we can do is hopefully get people to understand we are on a merry-go-round repeating the past continually. Aren’t we getting dizzy by now?
The problem with plagiarizing our models is rather simple. At the end of the day they cannot prove their analysis and that introduces another problem. If you cannot back up what you say with evidence, then they will dismiss those ideas for they go against the majority. In their pursuit of personal benefits, they tend to put at risk the future of everyone. We are headed into a major economic storm. This is the kind of storm that results in dramatic change. The consequence of shifting the financial capitol of the world to Asia will be a profound impact upon the West.
We are too short-sighted to see the trend and too stubborn in our views to consider what if we are ever wrong? To be a good trader, you must constantly question your position. The instant you just assume you are right, that is when you lose everything. Trust by verify.
Gold – State of the Market
The World Gold Council’s annual demand trends study for 2014 are out and they show that there has been a very painful readjustment for the gold market after a record-breaking 2013 where 880 tons of gold was liquidated from the ETF area.
The overall demand slipped 4% to 3,923 tonnes last year in 2014 with jewelry demand falling 10% to 2,253 tonnes compared to 2013. Technology demand continued its long-term decline as well, dropping to an 11-year low in 2014. Investment demand managed to eke out gains of 2% for a total of 904.6 tonnes during the year. Still, there is a decline in output as there should be. We need to see new supply drop sharply setting the stage for a major low. Typically, production expands at the top and results in the over-supply that helps to send any commodity crashing down. Likewise, at the lows, you typically will see mine closures and this is necessary to rekindle the market once again.
There has been some central bank buying largely as a diversification because of the crisis in the Euro that has led to the dollar becoming a de facto currency of the world regardless what people think or would like to believe.
The Minsk Agreement on Ukraine – Putin’s Victory
In the Belarusian capital Minsk representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the rebels from the Donbass signed a 13-point agreement on a ceasefire and other measures to resolve the conflict in Ukraine under OSCE supervision.
The essence of the plan is to take account of the self-determination of peoples, which is the reason for the conflict: the ethnic Russians in the Donbass do not want to submit to a central government from Kiev itself. The Obama Administration really opposed this sort of settlement on the grounds of old-world empire theory predicated on territorial integrity of Ukraine. Such policies have led to the death of hundreds of millions of people over the centuries..
The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany have reached a ceasefire deal after 17 hours of talks in Minsk, Belarus, on the Ukrainian conflict.
The ceasefire will come into force on Sunday as part of a deal that also involves the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line.
Russian president Vladimir Putin was the first to announce the deal, saying: “We have agreed on a ceasefire from midnight 15 February.” Putin went on to say “There is also the political settlement. The first thing is constitutional reform that should take into consideration the legitimate rights of people who live in Donbass. There are also border issues. Finally there are a whole range of economic and humanitarian issues.”
Putin achieve a major political victory as the deal was brokered with Germany and France. The US did not participate and given Obama’s policies, there would not have been any such deal and Kerry, well he may go down as the worst Secretary of State in history.
In particular, the agreement provides for a truce starting February 15, 0.00 local time clock is a strictly complied ceasefire comes into force. Furthermore, all heavy weapons systems should be withdrawn 50 km behind the line of demarcation with weapons greater than 50 caliber should be moved 70 km and 140 km for missile systems. The negotiated in September boundary lines apply to the separatists as starting points. The withdrawal shall begin no later than two days after the ceasefire and be completed within 14 days.
On the first day of truce to begin talks on local and regional elections “in accordance” with Ukrainian law. No later than 30 days after the signing of the agreement, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a resolution to establish the areas that receive a special status. This should apply to those areas in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, who were at the time of the Minsk Agreement under control of the rebels in September. There will also be a general amnesty for all rebels. Five days after the withdrawal of the weapons of the exchange of prisoners and hostages on both sides should be terminated.
A day after the regional elections to the Ukraine again assume full control of the border with Russia in rebel-held areas. This should apply to the completion of a comprehensive political settlement, which is aimed at the end of 2015. Moreover, all foreign fighters and weapons are to leave the country. All “illegal groups” are to be disarmed. That would include American supported private armies.
By the end of 2015, a constitutional amendment is to be implemented, which provide for decentralization and a special status for areas in eastern Ukraine. As part of this reform about an amnesty for the rebels, a linguistic self-determination of the best Russian-speaking population and close, cross-border cooperation between the regions of Lugansk and Donetsk with the neighboring Russian border areas should be committed. The areas to the east should have the right to the formation of local police forces
This was simply inevitable and should have been the political solution from the outset. This idea of territorial integrity rather than the desire of the people in any region is old-world thinking that has to stop.
The Schengen Agreement Starting to be Circumvented
The cornerstone of the EU was to be the freedom of movement to create the United States of Europe. This became known as the Schengen Agreement to the create a borderless Europe signed on June 14th, 1985 between five of the then ten member states of the EU. It proposed the gradual abolition of border checks at the signatories’ common borders. Measures proposed included reduced speed vehicle checks which allowed vehicles to cross borders without stopping, allowing of residents in border areas freedom to cross borders away from fixed checkpoints and the harmonization of visa policies.
Britain has been preventing those non-EU citizens with Schengen visas from freely crossing the border into Britain. Someone from Ukraine with an EU visa cannot travel to Britain and subsequently to many former British commonwealth states such as Bahamas even for a vacation. Switzerland also is experiencing an anti-EU immigration trend.
The European Heads of State and Government met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss a “targeted amendment” of the EU freedom of movement within the Schengen Agreement. This is illustrating the concerns that are rising both from a civil unrest perspective as well as economic. Nonetheless, this topic will trigger a conflict between the European Parliament and the European Commission on the one hand and the EU Member States on the other side..The EU leaders want to introduce systematic and coordinated border checks on individuals at entry and exit from the Schengen area.
Current Schengen rules allow the EU’s border guards to access data of EU citizens.This process is proceeding “unsystematic”. However, it remains unclear what the definition of the word “unsystematic” is based. ”There is no judgment on the definition of (…) In the past, ruled the EU Court of Justice that the systematic review of EU citizens is not allowed because it would interfere with the right of free movement. One should not ask whythey are traveling, only verify their identity and citizenship.
As the economy turns down very hard after 2015.75, we are more likely than not going to see the freedom of movement in Europe fragment and that will be the crack that signals the eventual risk of breaking up the EU idea of empire-building. First came the Schengen Agreement and then the Euro was sold as the culmination of the freedom of movement. Now the Freedom of Movement will decline and that will ultimate lead to the demise of the Euro.