Socrates v Watson
QUESTION: Good day Martin
I have been spending some time reading up on IBM’s Watson.
As you probably know they are developing a thinking computer which thinks and learns as time goes on. They are creating an Echo system which will integrate healthcare, finance and the public sector with Watson. IBM is spending over $1 billion and using over 3000 people into Watson at this stage.
My question to you is if Socrates is to be built for man to live a better life and learn from its mistakes , wouldn’t it make sense to help integrate Socrates with Watson or work in the Watson’s Echo system?
You have a limited amount of money( $100 Million vs $1+billion) in implementing your goal.
Socrates could become even more powerful in other area using Watson’s cognitive abilities .
ANSWER: The approach of Watson may appear to be similar, but it is very different at the core. It is not a question of money. We have spent far more than $100 million over the past 20 years adjusted for inflation that well exceeded $1 billion today. It was more than $100 million just to produce that chart alone in current dollars. If you use an induction system from which a computer can study and learn like a child through experience, all the programmers in the world will not help. The extent of the knowledge base becomes the extent of the data set. Collecting that data set is priceless.
IBM clearly states that Watson needs you to learn. That is induction. Assuming they have the correct code to create the dynamic links necessary for fully cognitive pattern recognition and association, then machine learning can match that of the human mind.
Socrates is well beyond Watson in finance. Watson will still be prejudiced by its input. That is the mistake IBM is making in the field of economics. This is a huge problem in trying to really reach the state of a all-knowing mentor. Watson should perform well in medicine and physics where the data is not based upon opinion nor the prejudice that plagues economics. Just look at this battle between Marxism/Socialism and Capitalism. This is not based upon data. You have people like Piketty running around who still preach Marx and THINK that everyone should be equal. This is not science. That is like saying the world should be flat not round. You cannot change the economic system and how it functions. It really is theInvisible Hand that is the dynamic link which binds everyone everywhere together. We need each other to make the whole.
Then you face the task of teaching the computer HOW to analyze something. Do you employ the standard linear cause and effect, or do we embark of an entirely new level of analysis that embraces the full dynamic structure of the universe? This lies at the very core of the design question. Programmers cannot write code to accomplish something they do not understand. I am fortunate to have the design and engineering background augmented with programming that enabled me to draw on that field to write code based upon my observations driven by client demands worldwide. Trying to communicate between the two fields is a near impossible task. It requires training and experience in both. I just happened to be at the right place at the right time.
Piketty and others are still very much one-dimensional. This prevents machine learning in the field of social science. We cannot seem to shake free of these biases. This is the stark difference between Socrates and Watson in the field of social sciences. You cannot inject personal opinion or the analysis will fail.
Google is attempting to adopt the approach of a more dynamic thinking machine funding based on the work of Ray Kurzweil who wrote the book – How to Create a Mind. This is a realistic picture of how the mind functions. It is all really pattern recognition reduced to its basic seed.
The Global Market Watch is such a system right now. It is monitoring the entire world economy and it is learning from patterns. This is how the mind really works. We ironically speak in one-dimensional terms that perhaps our conscious mind is limited by such concepts as a default. Our subconscious mind clearly functions dynamically. It is using dynamic pattern recognition to learn by association and experience. You hear a sound and then attach that sound pattern to a meaning. That is then cross-linked to related concepts providing depth to understanding and hence reasoning is born.
Learning one concept, yet without dynamic linking to create pattern recognition produces only a one-dimensional result like speaking to your cell phone that can return a one-dimensional answer – the nearest Starbuck is locate 1.5 miles away.
Socrates is far more advanced than anything out there. However, it is focused upon the world economy, not medicine. Yes, if we had another $1 billion and 50 top programmers, that would be enough. It is the gathering of the knowledge base more than just the programming. There are much deeper layers to this whole thing. Have only programmers can create a vessel that is still empty headed.
Our immediate task is trying to bring the verbal communication online. This is very difficult because it would have to support so many different combinations of end-user computers and platforms from Linux and Windows to Apple Macs. We are considering delivering a computer for the access to the high-end communications. Perhaps providing a tablet that you can talk to and we then have only one platform to deal with.
We have natural language code. You can write a paragraph that is convoluted and Socrates can still figure out what you are trying to say. That was the easy part. Teaching HOW to analyze was something entirely new.
FDIC Insurance – CORRECTION
The FDIC Insurance was raised from $100,000 to $250,000 in this last crisis in the USA. Sorry old habit. I should also state, that the major banking crisis is in Europe – NOT the USA. However, the crisis we will face is created by the REPO market to some degree and wild trading Money Center banks. You can move your money to a local regional bank, but this may still not protect you if the wild and crazy NY trading banks blow up as they have always done for each crisis.
In the good old days BEFORE 1985, banks had to get your permission to sell your funds overnight into REPO. They still must get that client approval in London – butnot USA. Legally they should disclose that fact, but this is the part of the real legal status of a bank account. You deposit what you think is your money. However, legally you simply now become an UNSECURED creditor the same as a common share holder. It ain’t your money any more ! That’s why they created FDIC to start with. This is why lawyers look at this structure and skip over the FDIC problem and say hell – we are not legally obligated to bail out depositors of bankers. This is the collapse in Socialism – it is all the promises that they cannot possibly keep.
It is YOUR BURDEN to investigate the bank and what type of business they derive their profits from. Those that derive profits from trading – walk away while you still can. My recommendation to banks who want to attract business – guarantee to depositors that you will not sell their funds overnight into REPO without their written consent. Very simple. Do that, and I will become a depositor. Then the risk is their loan portfolio not the Russian Roulette market who has the money tonight.
Cycle of War Turning Back Up
Serious protests are start again in Athens, Greece. There are still the rising tension in Hong Kong where the protest leaders were just denied the right to fly to Beijing. In Turkey there are various protest movements including anti-American attacks on military sailors. From here onward, we should expect protests in Egypt, Spain, Italy, and France. In the United States, everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, police departments are bracing for large demonstrations when a grand jury decides whether to indict a white police officer who killed an unarmed black teenager in Ferguson, Missouri. A failure to indict may lead to a serious protest across the nation.
G20 to Change Status of Bank Accounts = Investments
Governments are in DEEP trouble as socialism continues to implode (theirOBLIGATION to take care of the people). At the last G20 they agreed to share info to assist all members collect more taxes. This year, according our sources, they are now going to address the behind-the-curtain banking failure. Tomorrow, there will be at least a secret discussion on how the G20 will implement their solution for the massive bank failures that have arisen from the creation of the Euro in Europe and allowing banks to engage in proprietary trading when Bill Clinton signed the repeal of Glass–Steagall Act.
The G20 solution that has been discussed under-the-table, behind closed doors, which has been strategically further been kept hidden behind-the-curtain no less, is a new policy that is the brain child of Christine LaGarde of the IMF. This policy proposal changes the “LEGAL” status of bank deposits placing them on par with paper investments. It takes a legal mind to rationalize this. For in truth, it is actually the correct legal position. If you give your money to a bank, it is really your responsibility to know who you give it to.
Government created the FDIC and insurance programs as part of the New Deal. This is the collapse in socialism where government has taxed the hell out of us under the pretense they are there for us, but when it comes to paying and “protecting society” they have to duck and run. Government and this insane Marxist philosophy that collapsed Communism is undermining socialism as well. Governments will no longer be able to insure bank deposits and therein lies the next Great Depression for the average person is clueless as to what is taking place.
This whole scheme is the proposal that is a derivative of the IMF’s confiscate 10% of everyone’s accounts in Europe. The IMF is run by Christine LaGarde and I have warned she is the most dangerous woman ever. She looks at the economy as a lawyer – NOT as an economist. She came up with this idea of confiscation of 10% of all accounts before for Europe. Now it is just let the chips fall as they may. I would not expect Obama to publicly admit to this policy. I am not sure they will even announce this legal change. What I can say with reliable sources, that this is indeed the idea being discussed.
Subjecting bank account holders to the winds of chance is the new solution. Meaning, the declines that one might expect in a stock from a bankrupt corporation is what the average person will be subjected to with respect to their savings. I can say the Federal Reserve made the rounds warning banks they would no longer cover their losses in proprietary trading. I reported that was told to me directlyfrom a NY bank.
There is no change in regulation insofar as stopping such trading activity 100%, but the pretend regulators seem to be shifting the burden in part to depositors and bankers. Inasmuch as depositors are concerned, in the USA, the $100,000 FDIC insurance applies PER PERSON not PER ACCOUNT. So spreading $1 million among 10 banks does not do the trick.
The proposal will be that G20 member nations should submit legislation that will fulfill this IMF proposal. I would suspect much will be done very quietly if not by executive order. Clearly, they seem to be aware that things are going to get very bad. I think Obama will use the immigration flake as cover. This is most likely his motive behind regulating the internet right now. The timing is too curious.
Yes, no doubt most G20 members are aware of our models. That is no secret. However, while they appear to be bracing for the coming economic storm, they areNOT willing to accept our SOLUTION for that requires a change in government behavior and a reduction in their power. This is the main thrust of the movie – theFORECASTER. I have tried to explain the crisis we face in this media so perhaps it will reach the general public. I find it curious as well that the film festival is also this same week and here we have the G20 this weekend and next weekend the movie appears. Very strange timing that I had nothing to do with.
This is a significant shift in the proposal to just confiscate 10% of the accounts. Many nations have already embarked down this road. Even Switzerland is proposing splitting banks between trading arms and deposits. This info we have reported over the past year. This is one more step in the direction of wipe-out zone.
Defense – buy stocks. Smart money is trying to get off the grid. Perhaps this is why our model shows the potential for the Dow to rise to the 40,000 level. Equities may be the only place to hide. Lets see what is being announced if anything on this policy tomorrow. It may be deeply buried if it is included in the papers at all.