The Dow – Starting a Cycle Inversion?
The golden rule of trading is just this -
What goes sideways when it should move up or down, moves in the opposite direction even stronger.
Where we achieved the temp low in gold on the target week of 11/03, the Dow has moved sideways and is crawling along resistance. Given the G20 position of walking away from bank bailouts, leaving the Cyprus bail-in solution still open, smart money is starting to move off the grid in a very big way. We are tracking capital flows very closely right now. It appears this target on the Cycle of War has an impact.
Of course, then we have the really brain-dead behavior of world leaders acting as if this is high school – Don’t talk to Putin or shake his hand because he didn’t do what I told him to do! With such immature behavior on the part of this Gang of 20 pretending to be world leaders, I have never seen such stupidity. I was just asked are there any world leaders with whom I could have a serious discussion? My reply – no! I have yet to meet anyone since Maggie Thatcher who was smart enough to talk about real strategy without a teleprompter or aids explaining in an ear piece. This seems to be what the bureaucracy wants. While the cat is suffering from dementia, the mice can play.
The Dow is crawling along daily resistance. Timing should have worked normally. A high in November should have been followed by a drop back into the week of 12/15. What will not go down, only goes up. If we close higher this week and see new highs next week, it looks like we are headed into the low 18,000 level on the Dow by mid December.
We have the seasonal turning point of January. The key resistance is at the 18133 to 18200 level as the weeks move forward. This has been the top of the Primary Breakout Channel from the ECM turn back in 2011. This channel has performed perfectly containing everything up and down. If we start to break out above this channel and close above it on a weekly basis, this is the warning that we may see the Dow at the 23000-26000 by next September. Exceeding that area will warn of a possible real blast in a Phase Transition that can take the Dow up to 40,000-43,000.
Fundamentally, who knows. There are too many variables to nail it down to just even a few reasons. We have the Sovereign Debt Crisis, the potential for international war, and major civil unrest. YET this is just the beginning. Add in pensions, bank failures, G20, and a host of other reasons, and some people will respond to one type of event while others will select a different fundamental. This is what is wrong with those who try to predict the trend with fundamentals. They reduce it to one reason and it never can be just one. We are not robots. Everyone will respond appropriately based upon their view.
So pay attention. What will not go down when the cycles shift, inverts and rises even further. There is always a reason for what markets do – you just have to pay very close attention. This is why I have been warning a cycle inversion is coming. We may be in that process now starting from November 19th/20th.
Russia Building up Troops Inside and on the Border of Ukraine
Since the Western Leaders snubbed Putin, NATO has seen on Tuesday a serious Russian military buildup both inside Ukraine and on the Russian side of the border. NATO has come out and urged Moscow to pull back its troops. Putin has now been force into a confrontation but a bunch or really stupid lawyer masquerading as world leaders. These people are leading the world into confrontation perhaps deliberately to escape from their pending debt defaults. If Putin blunt launches an invasion outright this week, this will be the start of a much bigger geopolitical event.
Daily Monitoring of Global Capital Flows Coming On Line
We will be launching the visual world map of global capital flows that we are tracking each day. Proprietary feeds are up and running so now you will be able to see the movement of capital on a worldwide basis. This will be the first time clients will be able to see what Socrates really has behind the veil. He is plugged into the entire world.
The Movie – the Forecaster – It’s About the Manipulations That Have Plagued Society which will Shock the World
I am off to Amsterdam to attend the premier of the Forecaster. My detractors “assume” this is a movie about “me”. I have not even seen the final film. That is not what I agreed to. This is not a film about my life story. This is a film about the industry, market manipulations, and the consequences that we face. That is what I agreed to do. This is a film that impacts everyone. We certainly do not need another BS“poor me” victim movie. There are plenty of sad stories to go make movies about. This is a film about the very issues that so many have suspected and speculated about. Being Scottish in heritage, my family crest states my spirit – I Remain Un-vanquished at home. So I do not need a movie for sympathy. That would be rather boring and besides, what was done to me has had the opposite effect. Many now see this as proof that I was not part of the high-flying crowd of manipulators.
I am told this film is coming at the perfect time and it has reached blockbuster status in Europe because of its message. Hopefully, this will put pressure upon governments to stop the nonsense and do the right thing – if just for once.