Analysis v Funds Management
COMMENT: Hi Martin,
I appreciate all the work that you put into your daily blog and your computer database etc, but I do get a little annoyed when you use phrases that include the words “could”, “perhaps”, “maybe” and such guarded words in the context of market predictions. We all know that the market “could” go up next week or it “could” go down. What people want to know is which way it is going and we look to you and your vast knowledge and computer program to provide guidance.
Regards
TB
REPLY: I am not in the business of providing opinion. Stating the market “could” do this or that is based upon a number and time. Here is the number, if elected, then and only then would it react. Stating a market “could” continue to rise IF it closes above a particular number is the difference between opinion and strict quantitative analysis. Even the Global Market Watch the day of the low picked up the low stating IMPORTANT LOW and that is the computer from a pure pattern recognition level.
If you want someone to just yell buy or sell and nothing else, there are plenty of people on TV to do that. This is about understanding a bit more deeply and you should NEVER buy or sell anything based upon someone’s opinion. This is about quantitative analysis without emotions and here are the numbers so let’s leave the market to show the way. The numbers are elected or not. Plain and simple. No qualifying words. Here are the inflections in time for turning points and the Global Market Watch is monitoring patterns.
Yes I will point out the possibilities of a Sling-Shot Move etc, so you are aware that there can be a serious development. However, that is speculation at this point not a forecast. Had the Dow exceeded the September high and closed above it yesterday, then a Sling-Shot would have been CONFIRMED. It was not!. This is not saying buy or sell based upon possibilities. When CONFIRMED, I will clearly state it. Alerting people to the possibilities are important so you can follow the markets and understand what they are saying. Stating we “could” see a rally to 26K is important to comprehend the potential. When the breakout unfolds, it will beCONFIRMED long before reaching such a target in price or time.
The same in gold. Stating hey look, it appears we have a 2 to 3 year correction coming back in 2011 was CONFIRMED only when election the pressure points, yet that generated tons of hate mail and the Goldbug media thereafter refused to ever address our forecasts. I stated clearly a 3 year correction from the highest close in 2012 put the low in late 2015 around the ECM. Warning about the potential trend is necessary so you understand the future, but that is NOT a forecast until there is a CONFIRMATION by the election of a particular number. It is important to have a road-map of the landscape both up and down in any market.
A professional trader enters a trade but MUST always define where he is wrong. You just have to know where to get out of a trade by defining where you are wrong. You must also have a target where to take profit and exit. That I advised the day of the low and said here is the number to go back in if I am wrong. This is not “qualifying” a forecast, this is professional forecast defining where you are right and where you are wrong at all times – it is just mandatory! Buying something like gold and holding forever is an “investor” not a trader.
Socrates will bring this all together and put it into English like no individual could possibly do. Perhaps I had a headache and forgot to check something I should have, Human opinion is worthless for it cannot be consistent. So approach this from a different perspective and you will understand markets and not be led to the slaughter by those yelling and screaming on their soap boxes. If you really just want someone to do it for you, then funds management is where to look.
The Left using Piketty in Netherlands
CONTRIBUTED FROM NETHERLANDS:
Hi Martin,
There you have it: one of the Dutch left parties, Green Left, is proposing draconian wealth taxes based on Thomas Piketty’s book. See the link below. Some of the things they want:
* A (maximum) 50% tax on capital for the super rich
* Increase the tax on dividends from 15% to 30%
* Huge taxes on inheritance above 1 million euro’s
* Going after multi-nationals that are trying to avoid taxes
Best wishes, Hans from the Netherlands
Just Amazing – Witch-Doctors of Finance
COMMENT: Marty, I have got to say following you on the Dow has been an amazing live demonstration of what you have achieved. You call the July high, then said the market would rally into the ECM in September and then warned of a crash. The market turned down the week after the ECM peaked and then you live said you were covering all shorts the day of the low and here is the number to go short again in that is elected in a clam dispassionate manner. You choreographed the rally there after in an amazing manner. You provide the pressure points and it is clear why some say you manipulated the world. You just figured out how it moves and they cannot imagine that the world may not be just a random walk. Just had to say this has been truly amazing to watch.
REPLY: Thank you. You are catching a glimpse of what I am trying to demonstrate to the world with the silly hope that just once perhaps we can learn to live with the cycles than fight against them like Joseph and the Pharaoh. This is not my personal opinion. There is no random walk – it has simply been too complicated for most people to bother to try to figure this out. At times, I feel I am alone yelling the world is not flat you morons! Perhaps one day, they will see you cannot do this type of forecasting based upon personal opinion. But TV shows want people with opinion – not expertise. So you have a bunch of people saying why they are right based upon one fundamental or another. Good luck with consistently trying to forecast the future like that. This is simply being a witch-doctor of finance to me. (Yes I drew that illustration of the ship years ago).
Cyclical Analysis – Perhaps One Day it will be Taught in University
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have been working on a trading desk for 4 years now. I have got to say, everyone reads you. The general comment around here in the bank is never be on the opposite side of your computer. Some still say you manipulate the world and others say you are the father of analysis. Which is it? Do you even care? BTW – Happy Birthday.
CB
ANSWER: Thank you. Off to NYC for the weekend. Well, the manipulation nonsense nobody can do – not even central banks with quantitative easing, trillions of dollars, whatever. They only control the monetary side to a minimum whereas government controls the majority and cleverly blames the central bank for not neutralizing their brain-dead machinations from perpetually borrowing more each year (money creation), raising taxes, and hunting down capital. Yet somehow the Fed is supposed to neutralize all this nonsense. People only look at the money a central bank “creates” and ignore that expanding debt is worse for that create money that pays interest. Let the Fed create a trillion and there are some ready to storm the institution with pitchforks and torches. Yet they are deftly silent about budget deficits ignorant that this is where money is REALLY created.
As far as being the father of analysis, not sure what that title means. People have been doing analysis long before me. Even cyclical analysis is not my invention. Here is an attempt at mapping the business cycle that really goes back to a farmer in the mid 19th century that was published in the 1933 Wall Street Journal.
True, our model maps time far more accurate and our methodologies are completely different from those who publish or use cyclical analysis in forecasting. I have been called the father of capital flow analysis and its inventor by even the CIA, but not cyclical analysis.
I am working on the Geometry of Time that goes through the various people who have explored cyclical analysis and their methodologies. Hopefully that will spark the subject to be taught in university one day.
Precious Metals Dead or Deader?
QUESTION: Hi Martin,
Thinking in terms of Capital Flows, would it be appropriate to say that gold & silver are falling because the dollar is rising, the Euro is falling and some states need to sell gold to cover their bond exposure?
Best,
-M
-M
ANSWER: Yes. The dollar is rising and this will have a positive impact on equities but the precious metals are still moving lower as laid out in the 2014 International Precious Metals Outlook. Equities are in a different position from metals. They are a much deeper market and as such is a place where big money can hide. We even have central banks buying equities and we got word of the Japanese pension fund announcing its shift to equities ahead of the announcement that there would be a sharp monetary easing.
No comments:
Post a Comment