Friday, October 10, 2014

Blind Hog. Acorns. Assembly Required.

http://raconteurreport.blogspot.com/2014/10/blind-hog-acorns-assembly-required.html

When the experts describe the Ebola disaster, they do so with numbers. 
Right now, the math still favors the virus.


*(For those unclear: 
Exponential Growth 101
1 patient "double" becomes 2, 2 becomes 4, 4 becomes 8, etc.
It takes 10 such doubles to get from 1 to 1,000, ten more to get from 1000 to 1,000,000, and ten more to get from 1,000,000 to 1,000,000,000. Three more doubles to get to 8,000,000,000. In a planet with only 7.7B people, 33 doubles from Patient Zero gets you to "Game Over". When you get to 16M, in about 15-18 weeks (each double is now taking about 21 days), you've reached the point where everyone in the three primary affected countries has Ebola, or died from it (because about 20M people live there). Long before then, governments there break down, people go every which way, and the process continues spreading outward like ripples in a pond. So you either stop it cold early, slow it way down, or become functionally extinct. We're at the halfway point, give or take, on that 33-step process, today. And losing. This is why Frieden and WaPo describe the math as "ominous".)

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