SP500 Short-Term v Long-Term
The primary reason we run our model on everything time level is to distinguish short-term moves from long-term. For those who may be relatively new, our models are highly fractal. They were originally developed on intraday trading. It was then observed that the very same patterns which appeared intraday would migrate upward through time.
Short-term we may be at a risk of a correction. However, longer-term, this is not a change in trend. It would be short-lived at best. The definition we have developed to distinguish between a bear market and a bull market is when we start to elect the Monthly Reversals. Daily Reversals are good immediately. Weekly denote a more sustained trend for a few weeks or monthly. But unless you get through the Monthly Level, you have not changed the broader trend.
Opinion means absolutely nothing. The numbers are the numbers and the markets will reveal the trend. That is always the key. Here is Monthly Gold. We elected the first two Monthly Bearish but not the next two. We fell and supported on the third reversal. Nevertheless, this confirmed that the 13 year bull market would make a major correction on time no matter how loud the gold promoters claimed I was wrong.
Now here is the Cash S&P500. We have NOT elected a single Monthly Bearish Reversal since the low in 2009. The advantage of our model is clear – it ain’t my OPINION. The numbers are the numbers. This is not a contest to beat my chest that I am smarter than someone else. ABSOLUTELY nobody can forecast the future perfectly every day. It is just not humanly possible. So you do NOTwant to bet the house on that one forecast that might be wrong.
This is WHY we need definitive time-tested quantitative models that live and breathe with the markets. Because the majority of people will not accept that principle and will cling to their old fundamental theories like those who refused to believe the world was round rather than flat, there will always be a reservoir of people to trade against. They have to pay their dues before they can graduate to the next level.
SP500 Still on Track to Test 3000 Level
We still see the US share market rising sharply. The cash SP500 should reach the 3000 level. We have an important Monthly Bullish Reversal standing at 212342. Only an August closing below 193000 would be short-term bearish.
There remains no other game in town. With the lethal combination of the Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Cycle of War, the only place to park big money will be the private sector and that the smart money will choose equity while the so-called “conservative” will buy corporate debt, especially with corporate cash at record highs.
ECB To Flood Southern Europe with Trillion Euros
The ECB will lend to banks in the next two years up to a trillion euros to revive the real economy in the periphery of the Eurozone all to save the Euro and retain the power in Brussels that is crumbling at the edges. This, massive volume of long-term loans is even far greater than previously known. Europe is in very serious economic trouble. There is still no intent upon consolidating the debt and instead they continue to use band-aids when stitches are serious required.
Death of the Dollar
Prosecutors are simply lawyers gone really bad and enjoy their power without comprehending the full depth of their actions. The sanctions against Standard Chartered are insane and this will drive more and more banks away from using the dollar in international transactions. It is the prosecutors who are setting the stage for the new one-world reserves currency.
Standard Chartered has been banned from opening US dollar bank accounts without explicit approval by US regulators, according to an article in The London Times. The bank has seen severe restrictions imposed on it, after US officials warned that the bank may be “a conduit for illegal transactions,” the report says. The bank has also been forced to cease US dollar clearing through its NY branch for “high-risk retail business clients,” the Times reports.
The prosecutors have no concept of what they are doing. This is killing the dollar in international transactions in the same manner as FATCA. Rather than report US citizens with accounts and comply with fines for mistakes, the banks have just refused to accept accounts from Americans. Now the prosecutors are ensuring that the bankers will not even deal in dollars if they believe they can prosecute banks overseas for violating US decrees that have no legal application in foreign lands.
Can you imagine if France passed a law and said anyone eating a croissant must pay a tax to them because this was invented in France. Then the other governments, fearing the French nuclear power agreed to allow them to prosecute their citizens. This is what the USA has done to other nations – forced them to surrender their sovereignty to US law. Anyone who traveled to France they could imprison until they pay the tax for every croissant they have ever eaten all because this was invented in France.
The prosecutors are rapidly destroying the world economy. Any foreign bank should immediately leave the USA and they should create a foreign entity they merely hire in the USA to clear any dollar transaction. That way they would extract themselves from the risk of dealing with prosecutors who are off their chain in the USA. Or ask Goldman Sachs to clear for them for they have absolute immunity even J.P.Morgan envies.
The sensible reaction to this trend the prosecutors are on is to eliminate dollar transactions as much as possible and to close the US branch of foreign entities. If they must have a presence in the USA, isolate it through a completely different arms-length structure. Adopt the same mechanism as airlines where three airlines are selling seating on the same flight.
Our sources already are reporting there is serious movement in the works to avoid using dollars. International banks are moving silently to book any transaction in a currency other the dollars. While this will not unseat the dollar as the reserve currency for you still have to park money, these prosecutors cannot claim jurisdiction simply based on a dollar transaction. This is absolutely without precedent in international law and it illustrates the entire problem in the legal field. The rule of law has been inverted. They get to do whatever they like, just as Obama said his is right Congress is wrong, and you have to take them to court to prove they are wrong. Nobody has to check their theory BEFORE they act – the shoot first and justify later.
You have ZERO rights. Whatever rights you have exist ONLY if you have the money to go to court and PROVE to a judge you have such a claimed right.
Black Box faked in Presidential Candidate Crash in Brazil
The presidential candidate Eduardo Campos in Brazil who died in a plane crash is beginning to look like an assassination. People have attempted to evaluate the black box but this has resulted in raises new questions. Apparently the records of the voice recorder being purported as the black box are not from the crash flight. The experts attempt to clarify the cause of the crash before the elections in October. It appears that the black box has no data. Hmmmmm!
Campos graduated in Economics from the Federal University of Pernambuco, and his maternal grandfather, the governor of the Brazilian state, Pernambuco, made him his Financial Secretary. He was a dynamic speaker and was a socialist. He died in a crash with 5 other people and 2 pilots.
Charlie Chaplin – The Great Dictator
To those who can hear me, I say – do not despair. The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed – the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress. The hate of men will pass, and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish. …..
Soldiers! don’t give yourselves to brutes – men who despise you – enslave you – who regiment your lives – tell you what to do – what to think and what to feel! Who drill you – diet you – treat you like cattle, use you as cannon fodder. Don’t give yourselves to these unnatural men – machine men with machine minds and machine hearts! You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have the love of humanity in your hearts! You don’t hate! Only the unloved hate – the unloved and the unnatural! Soldiers! Don’t fight for slavery! Fight for liberty!
In the 17th Chapter of St Luke it is written: “the Kingdom of God is within man” – not one man nor a group of men, but in all men! In you! You, the people have the power – the power to create machines. The power to create happiness! You, the people, have the power to make this life free and beautiful, to make this life a wonderful adventure.
Then – in the name of democracy – let us use that power – let us all unite. Let us fight for a new world – a decent world that will give men a chance to work – that will give youth a future and old age a security. By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power. But they lie! They do not fulfil that promise. They never will!
Dictators free themselves but they enslave the people! Now let us fight to fulfil that promise! Let us fight to free the world – to do away with national barriers – to do away with greed, with hate and intolerance. Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men’s happiness. Soldiers! in the name of democracy, let us all unite!