War – Civil v International
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I studied at the Citadel Military College where I was introduced in Philosophy to your Economic Confidence Model. They taught it there in case you do not know. I must say, your recent comment distinguishing civil war and unrest coming from the people and international war arising from kings and ministers is truly fascinating. I dare say, it is exceptionally insightful. I have seen war and been in the chain of command. You have made an important observation that should be taught everywhere.
Congratulations
MKL
REPLY: Yes I do not recall the professor’s name there. I do recall he called and was the first to tell me I was a modern-day Hegel. He asked permission to teach the ECM there sometime during the early 1980s. I am not sure it is still being taught there or not. In all honesty, he was the first to tell me the ECM had deeper implications than just markets. Shortly after that, Milton Friedman came to hear me speak in Chicago. I had assumed I was just a trader. I was not seeking to discover something more than just that. So the Citadelin a way also pushed me forward as well.
It is clear, just look at the American Revolution and the French Revolution not to mention the US Civil War. The common threat is these movement sprung from the people. World War I and II the US people were isolationists and it was the government that did everything in its power to get involved. Even the issue of did the Japanese declare war before Pearl Harbor was spun in a way to enrage the American people into war. The attack took place before any actual formal declaration of war was made by Japan. However, this was not in fact Admiral Yamamoto’s intention. Yamamoto initially directed that the attack should not commence until 30 minutes AFTER Japan delivered it declaration of war. He was cutting it close trying to keep the element of surprise, but events did not unfold as he desired. Tokyo transmitted the 5,000-word notification in two blocks to the Japanese Embassy in Washington. However, they took too long to translate it into English and did not deliver it in time. However, the US code breakers had already deciphered and translated most of the message hours before it was scheduled to delivered. It has been argued that the US could have been prepared but could not win the support of the people to get involved in Europe no less Asia. Hence, the distinguishing fact between international wars is always the driving force begins with kings and ministers compare to grass-roots uprisings.
If you look at Augustus, he targeted Cleopatra rather than Mark Antony as the enemy for fear the people would not support a civil war. This was in spite of the fact that coins were being issued showing Antony and Cleopatra together.
One needs an external enemy to gather support for war. Even Brutus, the famous assassin of Julius Caesar, had to spin stories about Caesar that were not true and issued coins bragging he killed Caesar on the Ides of March.
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Ukraine Was the 3rd Largest Nuclear Power & the Home of the Chernobyl disaster
Two facts about Ukraine that seem to have been overlooked. Ukraine is the site of the famous Chernobyl disaster that took place the 26th of April 1986. To this day, when one vegetable grows twice the normal size, they call it a Chernobyl. The second fact is that Ukraine was the third largest nuclear power in the world.
Back in 1994, Ukraine had committed to transfer all of its nuclear weapons back to Russia in exchange for security commitments from Moscow. Those security agreements appear to be worthless. Had Ukraine retained the nuclear weapons, it is doubtful Putin could do as he likes. This is a very interesting question.
Putin holds all the cards and he knows Europe and the USA will blink. If history repeats, the EU will not match the USA and will take the soft road as they did with Hitler. It was Winston Churchill who warned them about Hitler and of course nobody listened to Winston. Only AFTER he proved correct did Winston rise in power. So Putin had a full house right now in this poker game. It is unlikely to see any major confrontation unfold until once again AFTER it has begun. That should be following October and the EU will of course not merely blink, they will keep their eyes firmly closed.