Global Market Watch– March 11th, 2014
Europeans Enter Final Stage on How to Pay for the European Failed Banking System
There are talks going on in Europe on how to deal with the massive banking failure in Europe. Of course, nobody want to admit that the cause of this failure was not risky banking – but BRAIN-DEADpolitical design of the Euro. Because there was no consolidation of the national debts, there was no single bond issue and the euro could NEVER get off the ground as a reserve currency.
By retaining individual national debts, the European design on that score was like the USA with each state issuing its own bonds. However, state bonds are not reserve quality in the USA as they are in Europe and that was the systemic risk. Europe lacked a federal bond issue and as a result, to be politically correct, the bankers had to keep their reserves spread among all the member states bond issues. This presented huge problems for once Greece was in trouble, capital turned and looked at Portugal, Spain, Italy, and it now smells blood in France.
There is no hope to cure the European banking system and the French model that now controls the IMF is a total disaster. The IMF proposal to just confiscate 10% of all accounts is a HAIR-BRAIN-DEAD idea proposed by French communists that simply see no end to just confiscating the wealth of anyone who has money.
We may begin to see some decision trickle out of the EU by June, but it really appears that the French will destroy the EU through the IMF. The French control of the IMF has placed the entire world at risk. Insofar as Ukraine is concerned, if they follow the IMF, we will see the Ukrainian economy collapse and the civil unrest that will reemerge giving rise to the risk of a major invasion at that time from Russia who will also need an external enemy for its economy will decline sharply as well.Quebec Separatists – Right on Schedule?
Quebec separatists have never really gone away. They had two referendums – 1980 and 1995 and lost. Now they are starting to rise again, just a little smarter than before. Pauline Marois is now saying there will be no borders for an independent Quebec. This movement to separate from Canada will never quite fade away. Cyclically, this trend should have begun to rise again in 2006. That seems to be on point. The more intense drive for separatism will appear in 2016. That will be the strongest possibility for a breakup of Canada that will be driven by economics. This coincides with similar movements in the USA and 2016 is our target for the strongest 3rd Party win in the US Presidential Elections that year.
Marxism is a Dead Idea But Capitalism (Freedom) has Never Truly Existed
The Socialists argue that we actually have a free market economy called capitalism and that is the reason for the economic downturns. They assume we can create an economic flat-line they call socialism/communism. Anything that booms and busts they call capitalism. The real question is when have we EVER had free markets and Capitalism without someone trying to regulate and manipulate the opposite side – labor or capital?
During the very early emergence of society coming out of the dark ages when we were abandoning serfdom, for a brief shining moment after the Black Plague or Death of the 14th century, capitalism may have existed for less than a year. Other than that, both sides (labor & capital) have been trying to regulate and manipulate the other ever since so there really has never been a free market that socialists seem to hate so much.
Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand was against the French Physiocrats who tried to reason that “wealth” was only agriculture and the blacksmith making products to sell to the farmer was a parasite living off of the wealth created by the farmer. Smith in his Wealth of Nations said that was wrong. Everyone combined through their individual productivity creates the wealth of the nation. Smith was proven correct with Japan rising to the second largest economy with a tiny landmass and hardly any natural resources. They became productive and wiped out the unions in the USA that were trying to rig the game no different from capital. Each side gains control for brief periods like democrats and republicans, yet neither can see that they need each other to exist.
The Black Death killed about 50% of the population in Europe that sparked a labor shortage which re-instituted wages. For a brief shinning moment real free markets existed. Labor rose in value naturally based upon demand. Then the manipulations all began.
The kings during the 14th century became greedy and began taxing wages or introduced the poll tax. As long as there was serfdom, people never paid taxes, only the “rich” landowners. This economic change of free labor (capitalism) produced the first tax rebellion in France and then England. The shortage in labor sent agricultural prices soaring. The landowners said this wasn’t fair that wages were rising and England passed legislation to reverse the free markets. In 1362, a petition was filed in the English House of Commons blaming the inflation on workers “who refuse to bear the burden of poverty patiently” to justify freezing wages.
It was at this time that taxes rose causing hoarding of capital among labor and landowners reducing the VELOCITY of money. Ordinances now appeared prohibiting the exportation of precious metals as hoarding increased. Edward III issued the Statute of Labourers in 1351 that set a maximum rate of pay at pre-plague levels and required all able-bodied men to work. The Black Deathcreated a very dynamic economic impact by increasing individual wealth, reducing the population creating a shortage of labor, and price inflation. This was the free markets at their best.
The change economically was felt throughout Europe. In Florence, there was the Revolt of the Ciompi in 1378 that was an insurrection involving the lower classes that seized the government and created the most dynamic democratic government that would ever exist in Florence. As government began taxing the people, rebellions became more commonplace.
We have NEVER actually experienced a period of pure free markets. Depending upon who was in control labor or capital, each side has sought to use the law to change the balance of power economically in their favor. Today, we have the excessive rise in taxes causing the producers to hoard their capital and not hire or expand businesses. This has led to unemployment in excess of 60% among the youth. It is not that one side is right and the other wrong. Both sides are wrong and cannot use the rule of law to try to create an economic advantage for themselves.
Therefore, it is hard to say what lies ahead but we are at a Rome Moment. Marxism will end for it includes everything that seeks to manipulate for the benefit of the so-called people that is really now government workers at the expense of the private sector. However, the living standards of the people in general have declined, not because of the “rich”, but because of the growing unproductive sector we call government.
The only possible way forward would be to eliminate taxes for thereby both sides would no longer have an economic advantage to control government. Politically, we need to end career politicians for this would put the people in a real position of overseeing the bureaucracy. Those terms should be no more than 1 year. Will this solve all the problems? NO! It will not even last forever for one side or the other will find a way to alter the power and seek to attack and exploit the other side with regulation and laws.
This is just the beginning. There is NEVER a permanent solution for there is a cycle at work as well. Capitalism (defined as real free market for both sides) has NEVER existed except for some very few brief periods until one side or the other begins to try to control the other for personal gain.
JP Morgan Cutting 17,000 Jobs – Banking Has Turned Down
We warned that the banks have turned the corner when their cycle finished last year. The NY Post has come out stating that being a banker is not so great anymore. When the ECM turns down 2015.75 into 2020, things for the banks are going to get a lot worse. They are hated perhaps even more than politicians. Their proprietary trading has destroyed the industry and been the worst public image than any sector can have.
Feinstein gets What She has Dished out to the World.
The woman who has supported the NSA and every ethical breach of decency has finally realized that when the CIA was searching through Congressional records of their investigation of the CIA, this somehow breached the oversight authority of Congress.SHOCKING! Diane Feinstein doesn’t like it very much when she is also the target. What goes around – comes around. She is a total disgrace as a representative of the people and if California splits, who will be the lucky portion to get this unethical pretend representative?
Crimea was the Origin of the Black Death that killed 50% of Europe
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am impressed with your models and the cycle of war. What has truly astonished many of your readers in Eastern Europe is how you focused on Ukraine and said this is the flash point before anything happened and then you said wait until after the Olympics and then Russia will invade. How did you pick Ukraine to begin with? How is that possible? I assume your contacts even in Russia are beyond what many intelligence agencies are capable of. When you connect the dots, as you say, you were correct on the fall of Communism and even Russia in 1998 that led to the collapse of longterm credit. No wonder the bankers, press, and other analysts hate you. You are always on top of everything as you Americans say.
Best wishes for all you do and your battle against the New York banks and corrupt media.
KA
ANSWER: Thank you. Keep in mind this is but no way my OPINION. Personal opinions are worthless and trying to stand up and pretend your judgment is better than another is stupid for the variables are so complex, when opinion is correct, it is dumb luck. It may appear that I targeted Ukraine out of no where, but indeed Ukraine has a tremendous history and the Crimea is perhaps the most strategic tiny piece of land between Europe and Asia. It has been the breadbasket since ancient times as I wrote recently, but it was the flash point that devastated Europe previously.
There were warnings in the form of rumors that told of a great plague in China and India that killed most of the populations there. The plague made its way to Europe when the Kipchak forces were besieging the Genoese trading post in the Crimea. The Kipchaks began to catapult plague-infested corpses over the walls and into the trading post. The disease spread quickly and the Genoese abandoned the outpost. They sailed back to Europe stopping in Sicily in 1347 taking the Black Death with them.
Crimea has been the center of historical events for centuries, yet nobody seems to pay much attention to it. It has been settled, resettled, occupied, defended, and invaded perhaps more times than most countries. So from a pure data perspective, what is taking place is nothing new to history. This is all in a database that monitors one action and works out the path of reaction, kind of like plotting the path of a hurricane.