France – Leading the Way to the Demise of the West – The First to Fall
Is the sun setting on France? France is the next major country to collapse in the Sovereign Debt Crisis. About 50% of the youth just want to get out. The French Elite are the most Marxist in the world – after all, the entire idea of “Communism” came from France and the the French elite sold the idea to Marx.
CBN has produced an excellent TV show showing the French Crisis. I highly recommend you watch this for its explains the extreme danger of the IMF that is controlled by these very people who just do not understand you cannot take everything from those that product. The French Unions are notorious. It is their way or they react violently and commonly will kidnap the heads of companies.
This is the key to watch in Europe. France will be the next key player to collapse and when it does, capital will begin to look around. Japan will follow and then the burden will fall upon the USA.
We will look at the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is brewing behind the scenes at the March 21st Conference.
RT America’s Liz Wahl resigns live on air
RT (Russia Today) news network has been playing down the Russian side of events in Ukraine and has not projected an unbiased view. Liz Wahl resigned on the air noting that she will not be a part of the propaganda machine. This is the sad part of news on both sides – they do not ever report the honest truth.
It should be stated bluntly, that the man whose name is attached to the Pulitzer Prize award for outstanding journalism is the man you invented Yellow Journalism and began the Spanish-American War all to sell newspapers reporting events and facts that never happened.
Global Market Watch – March 10th, 2014
Live Streaming of the Cycles of War Conference
We will be setting up a live stream for the Cycles of War Conference on March 21st. We realize that so many people wanted to attend this from around the world. Therefore, we have arranged for a company to come in a stream the event. We are working on price. This may come in at slightly higher than the ticket price. We are negotiating now and trying to keep this under $500 (including materials by email). Attendees will receive printed materials as well.
Expansion of Services
We will be releasing after the conference the third page to the GMW that will contain the Forecasting arrays and charts. We will provide a brief overview of the GMW at the Cycles of War Conference, a more detailed trading review on the Sunday event, and we will be demonstrating an access where you will speak to the website, be able to ask it questions, and it will speak back. We are close to bringing on line the full system where you will even be able to input your portfolio for it to track just that.
The Second Page of the GMW is
Deflation Still in Europe
The Euro is still pressing higher against the dollar on deflation. The geopolitical risks have not yet kicked in and may not until after June. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to leave monetary policy unchanged demonstrates it is not worried about inflation nor do they realize the broader impact of a strong euro on any recovery in Europe and its driving force behind deflation with rising unemployment at the core.
The Major Resistance still stands at 14700 level and ONLY a monthly closing above that zone would signal an extended trend. The rise in the Euro is indicative of an economic decline as we saw with the Yen in Japan and the US dollar back in the early 1930s. It was the rising dollar back then that led to Roosevelt’s confiscation of gold and the devaluation of the dollar. So the trend in the euro is not yet complete. The higher it rises the greater the economic decline.
The rise in the Euro is indicative of the broad economic decline that will cause a rise in civil unrest after 2015.75. This trend was thekiss-of-death for the dollar back in the 1930s. The higher the dollar rose, the worse the economy imploded. We are seeing the very same trend in Europe at this time. This will seriously impact even the Swiss economy driving the prices of exports higher and preparing for the major high we see next year on a 26 year cycle in Swiss real estate. Like Singapore – it is just getting too rich on a global scale for capital.
The US dollar will rise exponentially after 2015.75 with the US economic decline and the ECM aside from the geopolitical risks. When the US economy turns down, then we will see the rise in the dollar really take off as normal.
Ukraine Has Always Been Strategic since the Ancient Greeks – The Breadbasket of Surrounding Nations
Ukraine is perhaps the most misunderstood country as well as the most overlooked. The history of Ukraine goes far back to the Greeks that founded most of the main cities in the South. Kerkinitis was perhaps the first Greek outpost and Chersonesos in the Crimea was a vibrant city.
What is not taken into consideration here is that Ukraine since ancient times was the major exporter of wheat in competition with Egypt. Its colony known as Olbia is famous for its rare bronze coinage with the image of a gorgon sticking its tongue out straight at you. Ukraine is the breadbasket today of Russia. It is also the country through which all the energy from Russia flows through. Thehistory of Ukraine demonstrates that these people were always fighting for freedom and independence. They were the mercenary fighters for Poland and the Pope. They were feared by the Ottoman Empire who could NEVER conquer them. This is the real backdrop to Ukraine.
Research – Shocking there is Order in the Chaos
COMMENT: Martin,
I trust you are doing well this weekend.
I have been looking at the eight cycles of mini rallies and mini corrections we have had in the S&P 500 for the past year or so (eight cycles from 2012-11-16 through 2014-02-05). I tallied up the total days (305) and was calculating the average days per rally (25.8) and the average days per decline (12.4). I know, pretty boring so far.
However, I then decided to calculate the ratio of each decline period to the preceding rally period to find the average decline ratio: 0.56875. I know, still pretty boring.
Finally, I decided to do the same thing to calculate the advance ratio, dividing each rally period by the preceding decline period.
Ding! ding! ding! ding! ding!
The answer: 3.14.
And on that note, have a good evening, and a happy Lord’s day tomorrow.
-DB
ANSWER: The Ratio of Advance to Declines tend to arrive at Pi in a bull market and it will shift to the Decline v Advance in a bear market. There is incredible hidden order within everything and Pi seems to be the perfect cycle. The 25.8 is 3 x 8.6 and the 12.3 is 13 or half the volatility cycle. Welcome to the world of Dynamic Thinking. Most people can only see a straight line reducing everything to a single cause and effect – this happens because of that. Such thinking is rather simple-minded – boring, and suitable for government employment.
Do not worry, they tend not to discover anything important. Only when you open your mind can you see the hidden order to the chaos in everything that surrounds us. The closed-minded try to attribute everything to the gods of conspiracy who manipulate the world. One day it is the Fed, then the banker, the Rothschilds, and so on. They are like the Ancient Greeks with their may deities. We tend to wrongly call them pagans. But the Greeks did not see these deities as an actual god as being a creator. Instead, they went to the temple of Poseidon with gifts to say they were about the travel, please do not mess with me. They built temples to their conspirators hoping they would leave them alone. We just spin stories mixing fact with fiction.
Our mind functions on a dynamic basis, yet we try to reason in a linear cause and effect manner. Never stop exploring. Always imagine what if ? Indeed, there is a whole new world out there – our problem is the vast majority are trapped in this linear world not much different from the majority who use to think the world was flat. One day soon – their eyes will open and suddenly say – OMG. This is the structural design. How could I have never seen it before!
Vladimir Putin – the Restorer or Russia
Vladimir Putin invokes extremes of opinion in the West that oscillate between a disgusted rejection of his alleged despotic arbitrariness and fear of his imagined unpredictable violence that some believe can be latent and sometimes overt, and the other extreme fascination as well as admiration of his brilliant, unerring instinct power. Some see Putin as the ultimate unsophisticated intellectual yet the conservative-revolutionary of Russia – restorer or national pride much as Ronald Reagan offered in the wake of Jimmy Carter.
At home, Putin is not to be played with nor minimized for he possesses an impressive dose of projected brutal self-confidence with which Putin wields the power politics within Russia preaching glory of the nation in its rich history. Putin is void of the “idealistic nonsense” to which Western politicians try to paint themselves, and this strains the objective observer.
The only advice I would give Putin is to deal domestically with the Oligarchy, open Russia to the real growth mechanism of entrepreneurship, and defeat the West economically where they are most vulnerable. Ideas of restoring territory to regain Russian’s self-respect, are pointless. What would you do with Eastern Europe anyway? The economics of Russia are not that of Rome and China has outstripped Russia because they allowed entrepreneurship.
Now the confrontation over Ukraine is insane. The West, we have confirmation, has been increasing its presence expanding foreigners in Kiev with the experience of “work” in Iraq, who are divided into squads. There are also people arriving from Israel, France, Germany preparing for a stand-off or confrontation.
Russia has some very smart people and it has talented people in the computer field. Countless small banks and credit unions are constantly being attacked trying to break in to their systems from Russia. Turn that talent and compete with the West where you can. The West is broke and you can beat them economically by undercutting them in taxes and draining businesses away if the systems you create are fair and capital will be safe. Offer freedom to capital and you will reverse the capital flows. Only then will you force change in the West.
The days of empire are gone. Occupying land is pointless and the drain on resources to govern occupied territory reduces economic growth. The US spent $1 trillion on Iraq and what did it get? A new Islamic state and nothing to show for it. Beat the West at its own game. Russia has the Talent – use it. Undercut the West in taxes and you will destabilize their political power. That is their vulnerability. They are collapsing for the very same reason Russia and China collapsed economically – centralized planning CANNOTand DOES NOT work.
This confrontation with the West is just an old feud. Russia is no longer the enemy trying to impose communism on the rest of the world. Those ideas are long gone. So we have all forgotten what we are fighting for. It seems just “because” with no rational reasoning any more. What is the difference between America and Russia? What is the end game? Nobody seems to know,
We are setting up our eventual site PrincetonEconomics.RU
The Corporate Buy-Back Trend – Right on Cue
History repeats not merely because human emotions never change, it seems we end up with the same decision process that leads to the same trends. People just love raining on the current parade as stocks rally when they missed the entire boat to begin with. The bearishness with the new highs in the S&P 500 has brought a new twist to blame – corporate buy-backs to fake the earnings per share. Nothing seems to ever be real, so they have to constantly find something to blame for their mistakes in opinion that is masquerading as analysis.
I hate to say I told you so, but I told you so. It is not that I am wiser or smarter, I just did my homework rather than try to come up with excuses for being wrong.
I have said it countless times – history is a catalogue of solutions– but also explanations. The displacement of cash from stocks to bonds appeared in the Roaring 1920s after the Real Estate Crash in Florida (yes real estate crashed first then too). This trend flipped for the last 6 months to make the high, and then flipped back to try to support the market. So this is not MY OPINION of what I “think”should happen, this is WHAT happened. Part of the whole rally into 1929 (1) caused in part by a “shortage” in stock, and (2) then this was accelerated by the corporate buy-back trend then as well. Sorry it is not another bearish conspiracy to hide the truth – it’s right on cue.
Corporates have been issuing bonds and I have been advising them to do so why? Not to mask their Earnings Per Share, but because interest rates will rise and you better lock in whatever you can right now. There is a shift in capital from munis to corporate bonds and this will further advance as geopolitical events unfold pushing rates higher. Then there will be the last phase where capital shifts from bonds to stock. Sorry – no conspiracy here – just facts.
Corporates bought back stock when there was excess cash during the Roaring 1920s. Into the top, everything that could be dreamed of for a corporate share was issued right down to mausoleums – some of the last shares sold into the highs because guess what – there was too much money (capital inflows) and not enough stock. Corporates then made the mistake of buying back their shares during the crash to try to support them as did Japan and many went bankrupt because of that. History is ALWAYS better than opinion.
Stocks have been rising to record highs and you get the typical people at this point in the cycle who think they are smart and predict that the party will end almost any day. These people still see only the myopic view of the United States to the exclusion of the world as if there is no international capital flows to be concerned with –EVER! Honestly, everything these pretend analysts look at and talk about is simply to advance their opinion in purely domestic viewpoint blind to how the world out there exists and functions.
You will find these pretend analysts focus still on the Fed’s ongoing monetization of tens of billions buying bonds each month as if this is the reason for the rally in stocks. HELLO! Japan kept interest rates near zero and bought back bonds through their takeover of the Japanese Postal Savings Fund that the bankrupted using more than $1 trillion when a trillion use to mean something. That NEVERsupported the Nikkei. You cannot sight reasons for something without doing your homework. These are “opinions” only that are never tested amounting to just excuses. Excuses to justify wrong opinions are never analysis. As soon as you ASSUME some theory, you are doomed and cannot ever reach the truth because you are trying to prove your theory, not test it.
Some of these pretend analysts are now attributing the rally to the missing piece they just discovered in this equation known ascorporate buybacks. They have spun this into the new sinister conspiracy excuse as to why they were wrong again. They now say that this proves it is a false flag because as corporates have been issuing high-grade bonds since last year. They then spin this stating simply that corporates are using the proceeds to buyback their shares in record amounts and this is just a cover-up to hide the decline in actual cash earnings by lowering the amount of shares outstanding to make their Earnings Per Share rise and “appear” bullish.
This latest conspiracy to explain why the rally in stocks is notREAL, it not much different from the thinking of the Goldbugs who kept claiming the decline was not real because it was some manipulation. Well, even the Swiss had to report they lost $17 billion on their gold but according to the Goldbugs, they should say it’s not really a loss, just an illusion.
Market trends are ALWAYS real because nobody can manipulate the trend – not even government. Manipulations are short blasts within the trend – but you cannot shorten a bear market or extend a bull market – Japan tried and that was the goal of Marxist-Keynesianism. That is the failure of the “New Economics” of the New Deal that Paul Volcker wrote about in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle. Even Keynes before he died admitted his was wrong and said he hope’s Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand would save Britain.
So why is it that people will always try to argue that the current trend in motion is:
- (1) false and is not real, or
- (2) it will never end?
I call it the Paradox of Linear Reasoning to Dynamic Thinking